SD Midweek Update: As the mix of geo-political and market uncertainties become even more highly volatile, this whole thing could blow in an instant…
There are many flashpoints in the markets and around the globe which could result in an immediate flight to safety into gold and silver.
And I don’t think there would be much of a rush into the dollar for safety, because a number of the flashpoints are dollar bearish.
There are many flashpoints, but I’ll just talk about a few of them here.
First, there is a gigantic geo-political flashpoint in Venezuela, and as the US is seen by many nations, including China and Russia, as the aggressor attempting overthrow a sovereign Latin American government, the US is once again using and threatening to use economic sanctions, which only works to push the rest of the world even further away from the dollar.
Additionally, with this move away from the dollar, where are nations going to go amidst the geo-political uncertainty, especially if this proxy war goes “hot” in one way or another?
My guess would be that smart, saver nations make even more of a move into gold and silver, just as smart, saver nations have done for millennia.
Serious question: How can we Drain the Swamp if we keep on doing the stuff like we’re doing in Venezuela?
The markets have a couple of flashpoints this week that will become even more volatile from now through Friday.
Today, if the 2-day FOMC meeting, concluding with the Fed’s action/statement on interest rate policy, as well as a Fed Head Powell presser at 2:30 p.m. EST, ends up being a “policy error” made by the Fed which sends the wrong “signal” to the “markets”, gold & silver could catch an immediate bid.
Additionally, well, if this isn’t dollar bearish:
China is adding great stimulus to its economy while at the same time keeping interest rates low. Our Federal Reserve has incessantly lifted interest rates, even though inflation is very low, and instituted a very big dose of quantitative tightening. We have the potential to go…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 30, 2019
And gold bullish.
Then surely this is:
….up like a rocket if we did some lowering of rates, like one point, and some quantitative easing. Yes, we are doing very well at 3.2% GDP, but with our wonderfully low inflation, we could be setting major records &, at the same time, make our National Debt start to look small!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 30, 2019
Do you even hyperinflation, bro?
The point is that both Powell and Trump can move the markets with their words, and they will surely have a lot to say between now and the end of the week.
Finally, on Friday we get the April Jobs Report, and I get it – the numbers are pure lies, but that doesn’t mean they can’t and don’t move the markets, because the numbers can and do.
We do know that the cartel loves to smash on both FOMC days and Jobs Report days, and they get both this week, but I still don’t see much more downside than where gold & silver prices are right now.
I could go on and on about the myriad flashpoints that could impact the markets, but for a more detailed dive into the topics above, or to answer additional questions that may come to mind, tune-in to our live-stream at 12:00 p.m. EST today on our YouTube Channel.
We hope to see you in the chat!
The gold-to-silver ratio sure looks like it’s rolling over to me:
Any spare change or free fiat thrown silver’s way is wise, in my opinion.
If it feels like silver has been stuck at $15 for weeks, well, silver has beenSHORT FUSE? Gold & Silver Can EXPLODE HIGHER At ANY MOMENT Over Next Three Days:
Though I don’t think silver stays at $15 much longer, nor do I think we triple-bottom on the daily chart above, but instead, I see an upside surprise break-out to $17.50, and then coming back down to consolidate at $16, where every dang dollar the cartel lets go of comes with a repeated series of brutal beatings, and while we have yet to hit my downside target of $14.50, if we get there, then I assume it would be this week or the cartel may just lose its chance.
In the very near-term we have a higher-low on gold’s daily chart:
Although gold’s 200-day moving average is still in the cartel’s sights, and that higher-low could just as well play out as a lower-high, and that would be the second lower-high coming off the most recent short-term trend which began at the end of March.
Palladium is rather choppy and back in its wide sideways channel with the range of a hundred bucks:
I’m still not looking for a leg-down in palladium, although the technicals are certainly setting-up for one, especially the Moving Averages Convergence-Divergence (MAC-D).
Platinum has formed a rather nice looking bull-wedge:
If the up-slope of the bull-wedge began in mid-February, and if the down-slop begins after the sharp move higher in the second week of April, then there are only a few days left before the pattern becomes complete, and if the patter holds, then a break-out is coming.
The question is, how much do technicals matter right now?
If the technicals do matter, the Dow Jones better hurry-up and get to new all-time highs:
And I do think we get there.
And while getting there so far hasn’t required a flash crash in the VIX:
With all of the geo-political uncertainty and the market uncertainty with the Fed, Powell & Trump, the Dow likely missed the opportunity to reach all-time highs without further VIX suppression, so I’m again on the look-out for a quick plunge.
If the Fed hikes rates today, it would put the Fed Funds Rate (a very, very short-term rate) above the yield on the 10-Year Note:
Theoretically, assuming the Fed & government numbers are true, which I don’t, with a GDP of 3.2%, unemployment at record lows, and a “tight” labor market, the Fed would have to hike rates, but they will justify their actions by saying that inflation is “low”, even though saying that is a kick to the nuts of the Average American.
I meant to say “wonderfully low”.
See this post for six real-world anecdotes of how inflation is squeezing the Average American.
I’m still sticking to my guns and calling the Dollar Index a head-fake:
Everything Trump & Powell have been saying is dollar bearish, the dollar is fully and completely weaponized, and we’ve been on a 5-year bull run in the dollar, which I also think topped-out in early 2017, so I’m still looking for the next big move to be down, not up.
Copper is still building that massive base at $2.90:
People are starting to think copper will never be able to break-out, but to me that chart looks an awful lot like silver’s chart where price is stair-stepping higher.
The golden cross in crude oil is imminent:
And once the dollar turns down, that will act as a turbo-charger in the price of crude oil.
What’s the bottom line as we find ourselves stuck at $1280 gold and $15 silver?
This extra time we’ve been given to stack, courtesy of the suppression.
May come to an abrupt end, and it could happen even this week.
When there is a bunch of market & geo-political uncertainty.
That could blow-up the markets if there’s one mistake.
And that’s not even including any black swans.
Which we will not know until they land.
That’s the thing about black swans.
You don’t hear them coming.
You don’t even see them.
They just swoop-down.
And when they do.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.