SD Outlook: Get ready for MSM hit pieces on gold & silver, but the anti-gold propaganda might just truly be trumped by Trump’s bullying…
This week starts out pretty slow:
The stage is set for a whole bunch of nothing today and tomorrow.
Things get interesting beginning mid-week and lasting through Friday, however:
We get two inflation measures including the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, although those are not the so-called Fed’s “favorite inflation indicator”, and we also get the Retail Sales report for the month of August.
Side note: One of my calls has been for a Cash for Clunkers 2.0.
For several months now, I have been saying we will be getting some auto-industry related kind of government stimulus program, most likely instead of a bail-out it would be to stimulate Main Street, and on Friday, included with the Retail Sales report, we will see what auto sales were like for the month of August, and if auto sales are indicative of “Carmageddon”, then we will be even closer to my forecast coming to fruition, or not.
I think we will get the program before the end of 2019 as a way to boost end of the year spending, but we will have to see because I could be wrong on the call altogether.
Well, my call assumes the US government will be working to boost the US economy, but that is, on the surface, at odds with my other call for the Deep State Globalists to bring on maximum pain in the form of economic ruin and financial misery to America, timed to the 2020 election, and knowing the corrupt insiders’ timing in all of this is the hard part.
That said, Cash for Clunkers 2.0 could, in part, bring on economic misery for Americans because American consumers are all ready tapped-out and maxed out on credit, so much so that an added or an increased car payment might just be enough to push many American families over the edge, but the problem with the government bringing on that kind of pain at this point is that it takes several months for the repossessions to kick-in, and there just aren’t that many months left to keep putting off that kind of stimulus program to really bring-on the financial ruin.
So if Cash for Clunkers 2.0 is coming, it’s coming soon, which is why I think it would be before the end of 2019.
Second side note: If we do not get Cash for Clunkers 2.0, then I would also not be looking for the government to come in with a housing stimulus in the form of 50-year mortgage programs and other equally financially repressive plans like that.
There is a point here: We are really coming down to the wire, and it does look like we will know very soon how this is all unfolding.
But enough about the end of the year and into 2020.
Let’s talk about this week.
Check back on the calendar of events, and see if you notice what is missing?
There will be no Fed Heads yappin’ their pie holes in their academically cookie-cutter yet chock full of preservatives speeches and interviews.
Why is that?
Well, it’s “tradition” for the Fed to maintain radio silence one week prior to the 2-day FOMC meeting, which is next week, so as not to spook the “markets”, so this week our eyes and ears will be spared from the destructive circus side-show of The Destroyers of Savers and The Dollar.
That does not mean we are off-the-hook this week, however.
You see, when the mainstream financial press is not engaged in its favorite activity which is drooling over any and all things Fed related, the MSM is engaged in its second favorite activity which is bashing gold (and silver).
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, why isn’t bashing gold & silver the MSM’s favorite activity because you say all the time that the one single thing the Deep State Globalists fear most in this world is silver?”.
The reason is simple: Anytime the MSM talks about gold & silver, they put themselves at risk of making a serious if not fatal mistake, with the propaganda leading to the opposite reaction of what is intended, so it is just best for the MSM to avoid gold & silver altogether if they can.
But when the Fed maintains its radio silence, the temptation to spew the anti-honest money propaganda is just too strong!
So it’s coming this week.
But, and it’s a big but, any and all of the MSM propaganda this week could be offset by President Trump.
Well, the Fed is not in a position to defend itself against the bullying, so basically President Trump has carte blanche to bully the Fed in any way he sees fit.
Remember, I think it is all for show, a circus side show that is, but that is neither here nor there.
I think it plays out like this: The anti-gold hit pieces will be on-deck early in the week, but come mid-week and towards the end of the week, especially around the data dumps, President Trump will be able to engage in one of his favorite Twitter pastimes – bashing the Fed.
Now, let me say this again, because it is important: The Trump versus the Fed back-and-forth is all for show.
Let’s not get it Twisted: President Trump is in fact an actor.
There are his WWE appearances, there’s his celebrity cooking show or whatever that reality show was that he had, and there’s his b-grade hollywood special effects producer and wanna-be big shot Stevie over there at Treasury, so if President Trump does do one thing right, it’s being able to stay on script just enough to fool the sheeple.
That said, I’m expecting a crap-ton of Tweets this week from President Trump, proudly
lying boasting about “no inflation” and proudly proclaiming that if it wasn’t for Jerome Powell and the Fed, Trump’s stock market would be 10,000 points higher, but at the very minimum, in my opinion, all of Trump’s bullying of the Fed will simply put a floor under gold & silver prices, and, depending on how big the Fed bashing becomes, we could even see the rally moving on to its next leg higher this very week.
Therefore, I think the week plays out like this: Downward pressure on gold & silver prices, pressure which could get downright scary-scary with a drop below $1,500 and a drop below $18, but even if we go under the “psychologically important” whole numbers, I don’t think we break-down in price much further from there, and, depending on severity of Trump’s bullying, ether consolidation at these price levels nearly completes, or, continuation of the rally begins.
Let’s have a look at the probability of rate hikes:
Did I say rate hikes?
I meant to say rate “cuts”!
I mean, what was I thinking, that we have a booming economy or something, like the best economy, ever?
Nonetheless, there is zero probability of a rate hike, and an over 90% probability of a rate cut.
You see, according to the script, the Fed freely whoring themselves out to Wall Street and Washington with just 25 basis points will not be enough for the President.
He wants moar!
So yeah, I think Trump’s Fed bullying will trump the anti-gold (and silver) propaganda this week.
Silver is consolidating, albeit a little lower than my consolidation target of $18.50:
Any weakness here is an awesome opportunity for stackers and other smart investors.
Third side note: I think silver’s consolidation takes much less time than gold’s consolidation.
Speaking of which, gold has been consolidating above $1500 for over a month:
I think the consolidation is coming to an end, possibly as early as this week, so that would mean knock-knock-knockin’ on sixteen’s door!
Fourth side note: I’m talking predominately about two factors affecting the metals this week – the MSM anti-gold propaganda and Trump’s bullying of the Fed – but there are other factors too which could see things get hot in a hurry, which would be “good for gold”, such as a theatrical escalation in the Trade War, or some other geo-political event that leads to a strong continuation of the “fear trade”.
We’ll have to see.
The gold-to-silver ratio is still screaming “buy silver”:
To me, anything over 75 is screaming “buy silver”, although when the ratio is 85 or higher, that’s the type of screaming where one loses his or her voice, like when attending a narly rock concert or an important football game between arch rivals.
I think palladium can put-in new record highs this week:
Palladium has been leading the way too, for the past couple of years, so new highs for palladium would be pretty darn bullish for gold & silver.
It seems as if platinum is going to consolidate around $950:
Consolidation this week would be nice and bullish as it helps platinum’s technicals in becoming much more supportive of the next leg-up in price.
Crude oil has been trading in a tight $5 range for some time:
I’m sure the analysts all have drawn pretty little wedges inside of a massive wedge on crude oil’s daily chart, but if you understand the Deep State Globalist plan to destroy America, then we’re not going to break-down in price but rather we will see massive increases in the price of crude oil.
I do think the physical stockpiling of copper has begun:
$2.50 seems to be the price at which nations and other really big buyers of commodities are plowing into the red metal.
The VIX looks to be dropping for the fifth day in-a-row:
I think the VIX will fall at least for the first two days this week, but, depending on how President Trump’s Tweets are written to fit the narrative, we could see the VIX manipulated higher by the end of the week.
This means if the stock market is going to hit fresh record highs, it needs to do so in a hurry:
Question: Everybody is so sure the Fed’s rate cuts are bullish for the US stock market, but with a US dollar that is still relatively strong, and with economies around the world that are still generally weak, why wouldn’t the Deep State Globalists rigging the markets all-the-while banking fat profits at the expense of the sheeple cash out their stock market profits and begin moving out of the US markets and into the next opportunities which are found in the most promising nations of the emerging markets and the advanced economies?
Or Is my logic somehow wrong?
Rate cut, rate pause, or rate hike, ultimately, I think destruction cometh to the US economy & markets.
Yield on the 10-Year Note will give us clues as to the size of the rate cut next week:
If rates keep moving higher, then we’re getting 25 basis points, but if rates keep falling, then we are getting 50 basis points or more.
The dollar might not escape the President’s Tweetstorm this week:
Either way, I do think the dollar is being tightly controlled by the Exchange Stabilization Fund right now.
Which essentially proves that all the talk about the US dollar is nothing more than a soap opera.
What’s the bottom line as we find ourselves here this beautiful Monday in early September?
Gold & silver are consolidating and may lose whole number support at $1,500 & $18.
I’m not looking for the consolidation to last long, especially as the week unfolds.
Because President Trump will be all about some Fed bullying this week.
He will also be appearing to “strong arm” Fed Head Jerome Powell.
Gold & silver weakness early on this week is really a nice gift.
Especially if the bullying would be considered excessive.
I also think the anti-gold propaganda will be heavy.
They will spew the hate on silver if possible.
There is also the chance of a curve-ball.
What would the curve ball look like?
T’would look like “recession talk”.
If that happens, well, yeah.
It’s “economic misery”.
And “financial ruin”.
For one reason.
It’s to destroy.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.