Well, SD readers, we have gotten a mild price attack on the metals but nothing as severe as what I think is to come.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short.
My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
By SD Contributor Marshall Swing:
Looking at the charts, I believe the COT period is defined by a mild attack on silver occurred by our lovely Blythe Masters and her underlings. In my humble opinion I suspect she pulls the strings no matter where she is located.
It appears in the numbers that Commercials took major profits at or near the top and then forced price down with their traditional short covering reaping the rewards of contracts in the money on both ends.
What is very interesting is those small silver speculators who give the appearance of mirroring the commercial’s maneuvering and discarded longs and shorts in hopefully the same order reaping fairly short term profits. In order to reap the reward of the bullion banks serpents one has to be as wise as a serpent!
Very interesting that the large speculators appear to have been caught with their pants down and the totals of the numbers do not reveal they did anything much but remember COT numbers are totals shown on a weekly basis and never reveal everything about what happened. What happened can only be known by following price and volume action on a day to day basis as well as following the CFTC daily reports. Couple that with logical assumptions developed over a long period of time, proven or disproven theories, and you might have a chance of anticipating what is going to happen in this marketplace.
Otherwise, stackers try to buy on the low dips and hold for a long time waiting patiently for the metal to assume its rightful place in price reflection by virtue of demand and world events.
Notice, despite the commercials discarding large open interest contracts in both shorts and longs they even deepened their total open interest net short position and are very close to 200,000,000 net ounces short. My calculations say they can crash silver price to $15 if that is their target.
However, also notice those commercial swap dealer’s totals reflect them being eerily silent during the reporting period. They appear to have merely stood back and let JPM drop price.
While there was a huge selloff in open interest in silver, in gold new open interest contracts were added.
Almost 5,800 new contracts came into being and notice the share of the commercials new short positions! 6,355 new shorts so they are happy the silver bullion bank lowered price on both metals by virtue of traders following trends and they have increased their net short position by many ounces.
Again, here as in silver, it is the producer merchant bullion bank who is making the big move short but here they have loaded up on the short side!
Looking at the price action in gold we see the price went down some then came right back up to the same levels, even higher during the COT week contrary to the action we see in silver which went down and stayed down.
We see some long buying by the large specs but they were forced out of many short positions. I suspect they bought shorts on the way down and the bullion banks realized this, jumped price back up after buying longs and forced the specs out of those new shorts. Just my guess!
Could price soon rise again? Sure, but the short term trend is down and I suspect any long attempts by speculators will get slammed.
My thoughts are the markets have decided the Ukraine situation is not as bad as some would have you believe and is not going to escalate and the equities markets will resume their upward march and metals will get slammed in the coming weeks.
See you in the comments section!