Jim Willie has a brand new website and an excellent forecast for 2019 (spoiler alert: the gold standard gets adopted on a global basis)…
Top Ten Trends Lead to Gold
by Jim Willie CB
home: www.Golden-Jackass.com (new website)
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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”
Use the above link to subscribe to the paid research reports, which include coverage of critically important factors at work during the ongoing panicky attempt to sustain an unsustainable system burdened by numerous imbalances aggravated by global village forces. The historically unprecedented ongoing collapse has been created by compromised central bankers and inept economic advisors, whose interference has irreversibly altered and damaged the world financial system, urgently pushed after the removed anchor of money to gold. Analysis features Gold, Crude Oil, USDollar, Treasury Bonds, and inter-market dynamics with the US Economy and US Federal Reserve monetary policy.
The year 2018 was a memorable year of great transitions. They involved changes in the political arena. They saw enormous changes in the debt picture, for both the USGovt and the major Western corporations. They saw a struggle to terminate the QE bond monetization, laced with hype-inflation. They offered staggering damage to California, whose effects are easily 100 times greater than the World Trade Center fallout. They offered resistance to the US-led bully tactics, in slapping sanctions even on the US allies, a forecast by the Jackass two years ago. The globalist cabal agenda has been dealt a powerful damaging blow, perhaps lethal, during a year of great exposure for their criminality. The transitions offered a complete shift away from the perception of USMilitary full spectrum dominance. But the most important changes have come in the finance & economic sectors. The Gold Standard has seen a paved road for its implementation, arrival, and acceptance. The road can be identified for its several major constructed arteries. The pathways are built by the Eastern nations, which will continue to champion the financial reform, and thus wrest global control from New York and London. History is being made. It will still take time, but the momentum is gathering in a notable and convincing manner. The common theme of all the leading factors is the movement away from the USDollar, a theme so popular and widespread that it has been given a name, de-Dollarization. In the next year, even the compromised corrupted Wall Street bank community will openly discuss that Gold must be the solution to the unresolved crisis.
TOP 10 FACTORS & EVENTS OF 2018, EACH WITH IMPORTANT IMPACT ON THE NEW YEAR TOWARD THE GOLDEN DIRECTION:
- USGovt debt volume over $22 trillion, which grows well over $1 trillion annually, with no prospect of repayment except from criminal elite asset seizures, amidst high volume dumping of USTreasury Bonds. The future Gold price estimates are flowing in, with Jim Sinclair posting a $20,000/oz estimate based solely upon foreign holdings of USGovt debt. The USDollar money supply has tripled since 2008, with no gain yet in the Gold price. It is a coiled spring, ready to respond to the current crisis.
- Gold as the best performing asset in 2018, but with almost zero gain in value, which will next become a major beneficiary of the nascent Global Financial Crisis, part 2. The crisis is unfolding in full glory after six years of QE monetary excess, which has transformed the USTreasury Bond into the new global subprime bond. Its failed structure and horrible integrity demand the new Gold Standard in full spectrum.
- USMilitary in retreat on a global basis, after full displays of no superiority on the battlefields, thus removing the ultimate support pylon for the USDollar. The USNavy is in port for the first time in a century. The United States is departing from its absurd role of global police and international bully. Without such violent USDollar support, the Gold Standard has much less resistance for its broad implementation, even if in numerous pockets.
- Saudi Arabia breaks ranks from official US support, their $3 trillion in USTBonds confiscated at the ESFund within the USGovt, their gold pilfered in Swiss bullion banks. Even their dirty Yemen War is no longer supported. The recent Saudi budget is a laughable absurdity, which depends upon an $80 crude oil price. With the US having lost its Petro-Dollar ally, the Gold Standard lies directly ahead, aided by gravity, pushed forward by the Russians and Chinese.
- Potential failure of large Western banks and financial firms, led by Deutsche Bank, General Electric, and possibly a couple Wall Street banks. Do not ever overlook the contagion impact to the French banks, which will fall quickly upon any Italian banking system collapse. Expect around $1 trillion in Western corporate bond downgrades this year. The events will let loose a panic, which will call for the Gold Standard as remedy.
- The Belt & Road Initiative blossom, as the biggest development effort since the Marshall Plan, many times larger. It continues to be led by China, joined by dozens of nations with perhaps $6 trillion in slated projects to come. The grand feature of the BRI cornucopia of large-scale projects is that all are to be non-USD in trade and payment systems. They will form a massive cascade of industry and commerce, outside the USD realm. Worse, many BRI projects will be funded by the Chinese, who dump USTBonds en masse. With commerce comes banking procedural changes, leading to the Gold Standard.
- Rosneft Oil Cartel emergence to fill the OPEC void, as the Russians develop their oil consortium for mixture and purity standards. The Russian Rosneft is joined by Saudis, Iran, Venezuela, and soon Mexico, all to be non-USD in trade and payment systems. The Russian initiatives also enable greater liquidity for nations set in opposition to the United States. Couple the Russian initiatives with the Chinese recent practice to grant national loans based in USTBonds ,like to Angola. The result is grand momentum in the direction toward the Gold Standard eventually.
- Rising price inflation, with major factors being monetary expansion, trade war, supply decrease, and ineffective asset allocation are added strain to the global financial system. The response will be a call to Gold as a safe haven, while the USTBond loses the status as a haven of security since its debt load is too great and its prestige is long gone. Besides, the hidden derivatives to produce its fake demand are being exposed.
- Rise of global trade outside the USDollar, often called de-Dollarization, in avoidance of pressured rules, in workarounds of US-led sanctions. The result of seeking a fair trade payment system will be the pursuit of the Gold Standard. The USTBill payment structure will yield to the Gold Trade Note even in the energy sector. This revolutionary vehicle will usher in the Gold Standard, first in trade, next in banking, and finally in currencies. Note that the third and final step in sequence is not required.
- Exposure of global banker cabal, complete with their fascist corporate network of high level criminality in child murder, trafficking, racketeering, genocide, and counterfeit will remove the crucial upper layer in the many hidden control rooms. They thrive on USD self-dealing and gifts to themselves, as well as major monopolies. Their control room has long been the central bank franchise system. With both King Rothschild and King Rockefeller gone to dwell with Lucifer, the roadway for the Gold Standard is visible, potential, within reach, and currently being implemented. It stands as the final remedy.
FORECAST DIRECTIONS FOR 2019
The USTreasury Bond will seek continued status as safe haven asset, but the struggle will be on full tilt. The USGovt debt continues to grow without control. The global reputation of the USTBond as safe haven is being dismissed, primarily in the East. The global dumping of USTBonds is magnificent, whether in normal sales or from Indirect Exchange. The image and role of the USDollar as global reserve currency has been irreparably damaged. The main demand for USTBonds is from Wall Street, the USFed, and misled investors exiting the stock market. Without derivatives forcing the way with fabricated demand into the false safe haven, the USTBond would skyrocket in yield, as in, it would rival what Greece and Italy showed in 2010 bond yields.
Big Western banks are extremely vulnerable to failures. Their insolvency renders them weak and unprepared for further portfolio losses. Their easy game of bond carry trade has ended with a full year of interest rate hikes. The have little or no bond issuance business segments. Their exposure to the energy sector is astounding and enormous. A bond convexity problem might arise from the carry trade reversal, which could push bond yields much higher. However, it would be managed by the JPMorgan derivative control room. The contagion factor is very real, ready to catch fire when any big bank or national banking system undergoes failure. As Bill Holter states, if any one big Western bank goes under, they all go under. True indeed!
The Western globalist banker cabal has lost its former formidable power, still with residual power. Their kings of Rockefeller and Rothschild have departed this world. Their middle level captains have been depleted in ranks, whether by conversion (flipped) to join the reform, or by lost wealth (stripped) in majority of assets, or by elimination (killed) by the White Dragon enforcers known as the TRIAD. Their inadequate ranks make their agenda impossible to carry out, and their vengeance impossible to occur.
USMilitary retreat has been global after full scale ignominy, following displays of inferior weapon systems. Refer to jet fighter aircraft, to missile systems, to anti-missile defense systems, to targeting systems, to jamming methods. The Pentagon weapons system funding and appropriation methods are a massive fraud center and gigantic crime scene, resulting in over $6 trillion in missing funds. The result has been both retreat from the global police sentry role by the United States, and possibly an accord toward a termination to the endless Western war agenda which serves the military industrial complex. The USGovt might actually seek a better more productive usage of $billions in annual budgets, after having squandered $25 trillion in the last 40 years. The tragic result of four decades of wasteful military spending has been a crumbling US infra-structure and numerous alienated allies.
Advent of the Gold Standard adoption on a global basis. It begins with the gold basis for trade payments, soon to be seen in the Gold Trade Note. Expect the GTNote to be launched by China, for purchase of Gulf Region oil, from both Arab monarchies and Iran. The emerging standard continues with gold bullion playing a primary role in bank reserves management, which requires the sale of USTBonds and the purchase of Gold bullion. The final step will be the launch of gold-backed currencies, which carries with it many complications.
The last forecast is the most important, since all the above forecasts merge into the Global Financial Crisis that has begun to unfold. It will be at least three to five times more powerful and widespread than the Lehman crisis in 2008. It will feature numerous crisis fronts simultaneously, and all these fronts will present intractable problems. No solution will be seen, and none offered will be viable. Nothing was fixed. The solution of monetizing every dead decrepit financial entity will be proposed, which will ignite the Gold price. The entire King Dollar Realm stands atop the USTreasury Bond, which is a haggard relic of its past.
In fact, all the horrendous policies toward mortgage bonds have been directed to the USTreasury Bond. It is the new global subprime bond, but the globalist’s problem bond child. As time passes, the obvious answer to the global crisis which will fester, grow, and intensify, will be the implementation of the Gold Standard. The major challenge with the true viable solution is that the Eastern nations are far ahead in the process. They will continue to take charge of implementing the Gold Standard with numerous non-USD platforms. Meanwhile the Western nations fester and face tremendous pressures to keep the system in place. In other words, the West will strive to keep the political and financial oligarchies and elite castles in power. They will fail. The East will face a clear pathway in putting the Gold platforms in place. They are the natural remedy, the veritable magic elixir, the remedy for debt suffocation and the toxic debt-based monetary system. It is not only upside down, but also rotten to the core.
BANK STOCK INDEX UPDATE
Sometimes a single graph can tell a very big and important story, even as a preview of what lies directly ahead. Sometimes a picture can tell a thousand words. In this case, a single stock index chart screams a major financial crisis. It is the US big bank stock index BKX, which is in deep trouble. The Jackass featured the BKX two months ago, after a mere 15% decline. Since then the three consecutive weekly powerful declines have heralded the Global Financial Crisis, part 2. The entire gap from 70 to 90 must be filled, with deep groaning and gnashing of teeth amidst cries of pain in the pits. The BKX had fallen by 30% since its January and March highs, now to have rebounded only slightly. My name for the current unfolding crisis has been steadily the Systemic Lehman Event, since nothing was fixed, all the errors repeated on the monetary side, with exclamation point the fall in the BKX index itself. In fact, the USTreasury Bond has become the new global subprime bond. The banker stock index has recovered only to the previous critical support level, which will next serve as critical resistance. Expect the BKX to fall to the 2016 summer level with a 70 handle, another 20% below the current price posted. The next decline will shake the global financial offices in a big way, and herald the full bloom of financial crisis. Recall that nothing was fixed in the last ten years. Thus one can expect a bigger fallout from the broad nasty powerful diverse damage. It will loosen the elite power structure.
THE GLOBAL SUBPRIME BOND
QE was a grand failure. The bond support helped avert big bank failures. The bond purchases averted Treasury auction failures. The end result of the insanity of QE is a repeat global financial crisis, marking the end of the multi-year hyper monetary inflation chapter. The USTBond has all the characteristics of not just a subprime bond, but a Third World nation foundation bond to underpin its currency. Here ten years later, nothing has been fixed. In fact, all the abuses heaped upon the mortgage finance sector have been repeated in sovereign bonds. The USTreasury Bond has become a subprime bond, financed by pure monetization, almost no actual bonds buyers, $trillion annual deficits, auctions rigged, with hidden demand from the derivative machinery. It qualifies as a Third World debt security. The major US corporate bonds are moving quickly to junk status, soon to be shed by the tens of $billions by pension and mutual funds in an endless parade. Expect some loud shrill sounds from afar very soon, as the $10 trillion in Emerging Market loan defaults begin. The figure is in doubt only from the definition of Emerging Market, since all their debts are ready to default from deadly currency declines. They were lured by low interest rates, but fell into the currency decline trap with spiked bamboo shoots barely covered below. In the next few months, expect that QE will be resumed, in order to monetize the SIFI important big Western banks, the elite control rooms and power centers. They are almost all vulnerable to failure. The official return to QE will light a bonfire under the Gold price, and invite debate toward the Gold Standard. It comes after the damage is more visible, and the problems are concluded as intractable (not solvable).
SYSTEMIC LEHMAN EVENT
Regardless of the name, a major crisis has begun. Some call it the Everything Bond Bubble, since the QE monetary policy has funded sovereign and corporate bonds. The major central banks have truly wrecked the entire global bond market. The debt downgrade process by debt rating agencies has only begun. It will become an absolute firestorm. Some call it the Global Financial Crisis, part 2. The Jackass prefers the name of Systemic Lehman Event, since it is part 2 with the exact same monetary abuse, bond fraud in underwriting, with a longstanding QE chaser downed each year for seven full years. The Quantitative Easing is old fashioned hyper monetary inflation of the worst kind, unsterilized, meaning huge volume of funds added to the financial system with no extractions. The global financial crisis is upon us, having entered an intermediate level of debt saturation, of bond issuance deep abuse, of market rigging corruption, of banking system insolvency at acute levels, and of economic rot setting in. The outcome of the unfolding crisis will be three to five times more magnificent that what was witnessed in 2008 and 2009, since ten more years of the same recklessness has endured, but on a grander scale.
Expect the current crisis to wreck a few big Western SIFI banks, collapse at least one national banking system, destroy at least five major Western corporations, and result in open discussion of the USGovt debt restructure, technically a default. The systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) cannot not be saved, since too many are insolvent, gigantic hollow reeds. The dirty secret is that the big Western banks are dependent upon bond carry trade easy profits and narco money laundering fees. They rely upon hidden central bank welfare, to cover their $trillion exposure to derivatives. As the Petro-Dollar dissolves, these derivatives become unmanageable. The derivatives focal point, ground zero, is Deutsche Bank. Nothing can save once mighty DBank. As a confirmation, they announce on a quarterly basis that they cannot any longer manage the mountain of nearly $50 trillion in derivatives. As additional evidence, notice the multi-$billion bonuses handed out to their executives last week. No way would that happen if the big bank were to be brought back to a healthy remedial structure. Well then again, maybe they have inside word of a major new QE initiative to monetize the big SIFI Western insolvent banks, best described as corrupted empty silos filled with Western elite excrement and stained confetti as garnish.
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Jim Willie CB is a statistical analyst in marketing research and retail forecasting. He holds a PhD in Statistics. His career has stretched over 25 years. He aspires to thrive in the financial editor world, unencumbered by the limitations of economic credentials. Visit his free website to find articles from topflight authors at www.GoldenJackass.com. For personal questions about subscriptions, contact him at [email protected].