Gold analyst Bo Polny has been predicting since May that gold will trade at $2,000 in 2014.
In the wake of the latest smash to $1225, is Bo changing his tune and will we soon see gold place a new low below $1180, or is gold’s next stop still an astonishing $2,000/oz with only 3 months remaining in 2014?
Submitted by Bo Polny:
Is Gold’s next stop still $2000 now that Gold broke through $1240 on September 11, 2014?
In response to many recent emails and comments, let’s look at Gold’s last 3 cycle lows to possibly get some insight:
- In June 2013 Gold made THE Cycle Bottom at $1178, cycle analysis called this bottom within 2-hour, and at that time internet Gold bashers were all screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1434 top in August 2013.
- In December 2013 Gold made a higher degree low at $1181 and again the Gold bashers were screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1392 high in March 2014.
- In June 2014 Gold again made another higher degree low at $1240 and once again the Gold bashers were hard at work screaming $1000 Gold next; it never came as Gold’s next cycle was up, not down, causing Gold to rebounded as forecast making a $1346 high in July 2014.
- Now on September 12, 2014 Gold dropped below the June 2014 low at $1240 and again the Gold bashers are, as expected, still screaming $1000 Gold; and again it will never come!
In a May 14, 2014 New York Kitco Interview and forecast (click here to view), cycle analysis indicated Gold was expected to rise in May/June and make a Top in June, then drop down in price making a Final Summer Low and in conclusion Spike and reach $2000 before year end. The May 2014 Interview stated a ‘Final Summer Low’ would be a final entry point.
Summer is NOT officially over and a break of $1240 changes nothing in a cycle! Cycle analysis gives price direction, NOT exact price. Price is derived by calculations using a Fibonacci scale and a break of $1240 Gold is nothing but a break of a Fibonacci price support line NOT Gold’s 21-year cycle. So stating… ‘The historic Gold cycle dictates an end of summer 2014 low MUST remain ABOVE the June 2014 low at $1240’ was an overzealous statement and mistake on my end and nothing more. A Fibonacci support line break does NOT constitute breaking Gold’s 21-year cycle!
So, is Gold’s next stop still $2000? Yes. Will Gold ever see the $1180 lows? Absolutely NOT!
$2000 Gold will be followed by many higher high price targets into the year 2021 when Gold is expected to reach $5000 minimum basis new Fibonacci. Why $5000 and not $10.000 as stated in the May 2014 Interview? As stated above, Cycle analysis gives price direction, NOT price; so is $10,000 still possible? Yes, but conservative new Fibonacci calculations show a minimum price target of $5000, still a number anyone holding Gold would be very pleased with.
As stated in Part 1 of ‘$2000 Gold, Next Stop (click here to view)’, these are the Final Summer Lows here and now. Whether you believe or not believe, that is your personal choice; but TIME will expose the truth just as it has all three prior times Gold was on its lows starting in June 2013 and the $1000 Gold prediction never came to be! As per the May 2014 interview, time will expose the truth that these prices WERE in fact the Final Summer Lows as forecast; and those still waiting for $1000 Gold, good luck!
Only the Resolute Bulls Will Be Left Standing to Experience a Moon Shot to $2000!
Cycle analysis called then Silver $49 top, the $1900 Gold top, the June 28, 2013 Gold BOTTOM within 2-hours, the December 31, 2013 retest and higher low. To date, the May 2014 forecast has stood the test of time; next expect to see $1600, $2000, $3500, $5000+ Gold as the 3rd and final 7-years cycle is soon to get under way!
Thank you and all the best,
Legal & Disclaimer
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Polny, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Polny’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities and/or commodities. Mr. Polny is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Polny recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although an experienced analyst, Mr. Polny is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Polny’s opinions on the markets, stocks and commodities are his own and can not be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities and/or commodities.