Harvey Organ: US Fires First Shot in Currency War Against China!

gun forcedLate in the day, the USA fired the first shot in the currency wars by putting a massive 266% tariff on cold rolled steel.  Now the next move will be China’s move.  They will no doubt devalue big time:

 

Harvey Organ

ANOTHER 9 TONNES OF GOLD ENTER THE GLD/GOLD AND SILVER ADVANCE TODAY DESPITE BANKER SHORTS TO QUELL ITS RISE/MOODYS DOWNGRADES CHINA’S DEBT/ USA FIRES FIRST SALVO IN THE CURRENCY WARS BY PLACING A HUGE 266% TARIFF ON CHINESE COLD ROLLED STEEL/RUSSIA PURCHASES ANOTHER HUGE (FOR THEM) 21.3 TONNES OF GOLD LAST MONTH/SPORTS AUTHORITY GOES BELLY UP/EXXON SLASHES ITS CAP-EX BY A HUGE 25%/THE OIL INDUSTRY EXPECTS 100 BILLION DOLLARS OF CAP EX IS TO BE SUSPENDED

Gold:  $1,241.40 up $10.80    (comex closing time)

Silver 15.00 up 27  cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1240.50

silver:  14.91

At the gold comex today, we had a strong delivery day, registering 390 notices for 3900 ounces and for Silver surprisingly saw only 10 notices for 50,000 oz for the active March delivery month.  They must have problems sourcing silver!

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 210.79 tonnes for a loss of 92 tonnes over that period.

In silver, the open interest rose by 88 contracts up to 162,293. In ounces, the OI is still represented by .811 billion oz or 116% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China). Generally as we go into an active delivery month the liquidation is much bigger.

In silver we had 10 notices served upon for 50,000 oz.

In gold, the total comex gold OI rose by a tiny 89 contracts to 450,555 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold was down $3.60 with yesterday’s trading.(at comex closing)

We had another huge change in gold  inventory at the GLD, a mammoth sized deposit of 9.83 tonnes and gold goes down early this morning? and rises only slightly? / thus the inventory rests tonight at 786.20 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex.   In silver,/we had no changes in inventory tune of  and thus the Inventory rests at 311.618 million oz

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver rose by 88 contracts up to 162,293 despite the fact that the price of silver was down 16 cents with yesterday’s trading. The total OI for gold rose by 89 contracts to 450,555 contracts as gold despite being down $3.60 in price from yesterday’s level.

(report Harvey)

2 a) Gold trading overnight, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne)

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3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

i)Late  TUESDAY night/ WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP BY 116.51 POINTS OR 4.20%, /  Hang Sang closed UP by 596.03  points or  3.07% . The Nikkei closed UP 661.04 or 4.11%. Australia’s all ordinaires was UP 2.01%. Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.5512.   Oil LOST  to 33.69 dollars per barrel for WTI and 36.37 for Brent. Stocks in Europe so far deeply in the GREEN EXCEPT LONDON . Offshore yuan trades  6.5541 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5512 for onshore yuan/MOODYS DOWNGRADES CHINA’S CREDIT FROM STABLE TO NEGATIVE (SEE BELOW)

 

FROM CHINA

 

ii) Moody’s downgrades sovereign debt

(zero hedge)

 

iii)POBC weakens yuan to one month lows on both onshore and offshore yuan;

( zero hedge)
 

iii)Then late in the day, the uSA fired the first shot in the currency wars by putting a massive 266% tariff on cold rolled steel.  Now the next move will be China’s move.  They will no doubt devalue big time:

( zero hedge)
 
 
 
EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
 
One hedge fund warns that the market will again be disappointed by the ECB who will be influenced by Germany not to move:
( zero hedge)
 
 
 

OIL MARKETS

 

i)Art Berman believes that oil is heading to 16 dollars

( Art Berman/Oil Price.com)

 

ii)Huge buildup in inventories reported by the DOE:  storage conditions becoming extreme!

 
( DOE/zero hedge)
 
iii) Amazing!!, the biggest inventory build and WTI rises back again over $35.00( zero hedge)

 

PHYSICAL MARKETS:

 

i)Turd Ferguson seeks a stock market collapse.//Moolman expects huge currency devaluations due to its incessant desire for more debt

( TFMetals/Craig Hemke/Moolman/GATA)

ii)Why on earth would a gold mining executive want lower gold prices? So he could buy gold mines on the cheap in Africa

( Chris Powell/GATA)

iii)Nanex’s Hunsader wins a big whistleblower price from the SEC.

( Chris Powell/GATA)

 

iv)Russian quietly purchases 21.3 tonnes of gold last month as they are gradually increasing their totals each month.  Pravda claims that Russia aims to overthrow the dollar and the West with their gold purchases:

( Pravda/GATA)

v) tonight’s commentary from Bill Holter in entitled:

We are all in the same boat?”

vi)Lawrie Williams on how gold will rise from this point in time onward:
( Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)

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vii)  Dave Kranzler comments on the large amount of silver leaving the comex vaults, the small amount of notices filed for delivery which is very unusual for a big delivery month. Kranzler questions whether the dealer silver amounts are really there!

(Dave Kranzler/IRD)

 

 USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

 

i)The totally inept and fictitious ADP report surprisingly shows an upbeat in jobs:

( ADP/zero hedge)
 

ii)Sports Authority files for bankruptcy protection and will close 1/3 of its stores

( zero hedge)
 
iii)Exxon slashes its 2016 capital expenditures by 25%.  It sure looks like the entire industry will cut capex by $100 billion which will be a huge drain on the GDP this yr.
 
( zero hedge)
 
iv The beige book is out and these guys are confused by the impact on low gas prices and the volatility of the stock market.  However what is key is that they are seeing rising wage pressures which will no doubt cause these causes to continue with their policy error
 
(zero hedge/beige book)
 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest rose to 450,555 for a tiny gain of 89 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold was down $3.60 in price with respect to yesterday’s trading.  For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments with respect to the gold open interest:  1) total gold comex collapse in OI as we enter an active delivery month or for that matter an inactive month, and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in an active month.   Today, both scenarios were in order as initially the total OI complex fell only to see it revive once March 1 was upon us.  The front March contract month saw its OI fall by 23 contracts down to 490.We had 8 notices filed yesterday, and as such we lost 15 contracts or 1500 oz will not stand for delivery. After March, the active delivery month of April saw it’s OI fall by 2842 contracts down to 299,756. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was 171,760 which is fair.  The confirmed volume yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was good at 242,886 contracts. The comex is not in backwardation.

 

Today we had 390 notices filed for 39,000 oz.
 
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by a smallish 88 contracts from 162,205 up to 162,293 despite the fact that the price of silver was down by 16 cents with yesterday’s trading.  The next big active contract month is March and here the OI fell by only 41 contracts down to 3,440 contracts. We had 17 notices served upon yesterday, so we lost only 24 contracts or 120,000 ounces will not stand for delivery. The next contract month after March is April and here the OI fell by 5 contracts down to 362.  The next active contract month is May and here the OI fell by 503 contracts up to 117,271. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 29,429 , which is fair. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex + globex) was also excellent  at 44,497. Silver is not in backwardation at the comex but is in backwardation in London.
 
We had 10 notices filed for 50,000 oz.
 

March contract month:

INITIAL standings for MARCH

March 2/2016

Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil 55,943.374 ozScotia

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 26,355.72 ozBrinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz    48,199.960 ozHSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today 390 contracts
(39,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 100 contracts(10,000  oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  418 contracts (41,800 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month 82,393.5 oz
Today, we had 1 dealer transactions
i) Into Brinks:  26,355.72 oz  (arrived from yesterday’s JPMorgan’s withdrawal of 26,355.72 oz)
total dealer deposit; 26,355.72 oz
 
total dealer withdrawals nil. oz
 
We had 1  customer withdrawal:
i) Out of Scotia: 55,943.374 oz
total customer withdrawal: 55,943.374  oz
 
we had 0 customer deposits:
 
total customer deposit:  nil oz
 

we had 0 adjustment

.

 JPMorgan has a total of 46,083.778 oz or 1.4333 tonnes in its dealer or registered account.
***JPMorgan now has 634,356.528 or 19.734 tonnes in its customer account.
 
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 390 contracts of which 228 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the Mar contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (418) x 100 oz  or 41,800 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (490 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (390) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals the number of ounces standing.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the March. contract month:
 
No of notices served so far (418) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (490) minus the number of  notices served upon today (390) x 100 oz which equals 42,800 oz standing in this non  active delivery month of March (1.3312 tonnes)
 
We thus have 1.3312 tonnes of gold standing and 9.475 tonnes of registered gold for sale, waiting to serve upon those standing.  The bankers are still doing their best in cash settling as there is not enough registered gold to satisfy those that are standing.
 
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have 1.3312 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes = 8.3812 tonnes standing against 9.475 tonnes available.  .
 
Total dealer inventor 304,646.200 oz or 9.475 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =6,777,131.633 or 210.79 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 210.79 tonnes for a loss of 92 tonnes over that period. 
 
JPMorgan has only 21.16 tonnes of gold total (both dealer and customer)
end
 
 
And now for silver
 

MARCH INITIAL standings/

March 2/2016:

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory  219,927.64 oz(CNT,Delaware,HSBC,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil
 
No of oz served today (contracts) 10 contracts 50,000 oz
No of oz to be served (notices) 3430  contract (17,150,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 32 contracts (160,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 2,882,073.7 oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account: 

total dealer deposit;nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil

we had 0 customer deposits

 

:

total customer deposits: nil   oz

We had 4 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT: 4188.18 oz
ii) Out of Delaware; 7600.76 oz
iii) Out of HSBC: 203,158.700 oz
iv) Out of Scotia; 4980.000 oz ???
 
 

total withdrawals from customer account 219,927.640   oz

 

 we had 0 adjustments

 

The total number of notices filed today for the March contract month is represented by 10 contracts for 50,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (32) x 5,000 oz  = 160,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (3440) and the number of notices served upon today (10) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing (19,020,000 oz)
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the March. contract month:  32 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(3440{ OI for front month of March ) -number of notices served upon today (10)x 5000 oz   equals  17,310,000 oz of silver standing for the March contract month.
 
we lost a tiny 24 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will not stand and was probably cash settled. If the 17 million oz stands resolute it should be very interesting by month’s end.
 
Total dealer silver:  24.795 million  (near all time recorded low level)
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   152.567 million oz
 
Questions: 1. why so much activity in the silver comex?
Question 2:    why so much deposit of silver and yet tiny delivery notices?
 
 
end
 
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:i) demand from paper gold shareholders ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China
 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

MAR 2/another mammoth paper gold addition of 8.93 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 786.20 tonnes.

March 1/a mammoth 14.87 tonnes of gold deposit into the GLD/inventory rests at 770.27 tonnes

FEB 29/another deposit of 2.08 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 762.40 tonnes

Feb 26./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 760.32 tonnes

Feb 25./we had a huge deposit of 7.33 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 760.32 tonnes. No doubt that this is a paper gold deposit/not real as the price of gold hardly moved on that huge amount of deposit.

FEB 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 752.29 tonnes

FEB 23./another huge addition of 19.3 tonnes of gold into its inventory/Inventory rests at 752.29 tonnes.  Again how could they accumulate this quantity of gold with backwardation in London/this vehicle is nothing but a fraud

Feb 22/A huge addition of 19.33 tonnes of gold to its inventory/Inventory rests at 732.96 tonnes/ How could this happen: a huge addition of gold coupled with a huge downfall of 20 dollars in gold.

FEB 19/a huge deposit of 2.68 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 713.63 tonnes

fEB 18/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 710.95 tonnes

fEB 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 710.95 tonnes

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

March 2.2016:  inventory rests at 786.20 tonnes

In two weeks we have added 75 tonnes of gold. On Feb 17 the price of gold was 1199.50 so we advanced only $42.00 per oz on that huge gold buying?

 

end

Now the SLV
MAR 2/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 311.618 million oz
March 1/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 311.618 million oz
FEB 29/no change in inventory/rests at 311.618 million oz
Feb 26./no change in inventory/rests at 311.618 million oz
Feb 25/no change /inventory rests at 311.618 million oz
FEB 24/no change/inventory rests at 311.618 million oz
FEB 23/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 311.618 million oz
Feb 22/ we have a good addition of 666,000 oz into inventory/Inventory rests at 311.618 million oz
FEB 19/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 310.952 million oz
FEB 18/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 310.952 million oz
fEB 17/ a huge withdrawal of 1.237 million oz of silver removed from the SLV/Inventory rests at 310.952 million oz.
 
 
 
March 2.2016: Inventory 311.618 million oz.
 
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 64.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:35.2%
cash .0%( Mar 2.2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to   1.84%!!!! NAV (Mar 2.2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to +.10% to NAV Mar 2/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +1.84%/Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.10%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
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