Harvey Organ: Outside Reversal As Silver Surges 15% in 24 Hours!

After a MASSIVE ATTACK overnight, gold & silver SURGED higher today, placing a STRONG OUTSIDE REVERSAL!
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today:


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Submitted by Harvey Organ: 

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Gold: $1218. up $42.80
Silver: $16.65  up $1.49

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1212.00
silver $16.47

The gold comex today had another poor delivery  day, registering only  109   notices served for 10,900 oz.  Silver comex registered 517 notices for 2,585,000 oz.

A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 246.59 tonnes for a loss of 57 tonnes over that period.

In silver, the open interest rose by 1232 contracts despite Friday’s huge loss in price of $1.06 . For the past year, we have been witnessing massive liquidation of contracts despite the fact that it cost nothing to roll.  This makes no sense and it smacks of cash settlements which are totally illegal. Since I have been following comex data, I have never witnessed such a massive liquidation in both gold and silver these past 4 days.  The total silver OI still  remains relatively high with today’s reading  at 155,108 contracts. The big December silver OI contract lowered by 2215 contracts down to 1735 contracts.

In gold we had a tame loss in OI despite the huge loss in price of gold on Friday to the tune of $21.60  The total comex gold  OI rests tonight  at 372,859  for a  loss  of 3,969 contracts. The December gold OI rests tonight at 4,536 contracts.  We witnessed a huge contraction of 6,971 contracts despite the fact that it costs nothing to roll..



Outside positive day reversal:

In trading of  gold and silver today, our two precious metals had a roller coaster time in the Asian,  European  and then USA trading  zone last night.  Early Sunday evening, as I was watching the screen, gold hit its low point at around 8 pm with a price of $1142.50.  From there it was one huge climb.  At the first fix, gold hit $1157.50 upon which the bankers threw a soft punch knocking a few dollars off gold where at 3 am gold was trading at $1155.00 .   At about 6 am it reached $1180.00.

By 7 am the bankers threw a tantrum and knocked 8 dollars off gold to $1172.00.  Not to be undone,  gold hit its second plateau at the 2nd London fix at $1196.50.

Then gold straddled the 1200 dollar barrier until just before noon, it broke through, hitting its zenith at $1119. 50. In the access market it is trading around $1210.00


Silver followed gold to a T. but much better. Silver hit its low point at about the same time as gold at around $14.63.  From there it was one steady climb:

First London fix:  $15.01 (2 am )

First plateau: $16.08 at (5 am)

Second trough  7 am  $15.53

then one stead climb to its zenith at $16.71

In the access market now it is trading at $16.45

Today, we had no change in tonnage of gold Inventory at the GLD / inventory rests tonight at  717.63 tonnes.

In silver, we no change in silver inventory:

SLV’s inventory  rests tonight at 347.954 million oz.

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.


First:   GOFO rates:

all rates move again much deeper into the negative  and thus  we have severe backwardation!!

Now, all the months of GOFO rates( one, two, three  six month GOFO and one year) moved deeper into  the negative with the mostly used 1 to 6 month rates severely deep into the negative and thus  in backwardation Even the one year rate is within a hair- fraction of negativity. When the one year goes negative, we will have complete backwardation for one year out.   On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates.

It looks to me like these rates even though negative are still fully manipulated.

London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.

The backwardation in gold is incompatible with the raid on gold . It does not make any economic sense.

Even though the USA had a holiday yesterday, LBMA provided data from London and that is included in your report for today:

Dec 1 2014

1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate

-5825.%         – 46500  -%        –3150   -%   – 12333  .%          + 00667%

Nov 28 2014:

-.49333%           -.3633300%       -,25667 %         -10333%    +02667%


Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest fell dramatically again  by 3,969 contracts from  376,828 down to 372,859 with gold down by $21.40 on Friday (at the comex close). We are now into the  big December contract month where the number of OI standing for the gold metal registers 4,536 contracts for a loss of 6971 contracts.  The non active January contract month fell by 273 contracts down to 331.  The next big delivery month is February and here the OI rose to 238,915 contracts for a gain of 2161 contracts. The  estimated volume today was fair at 187,859 .  The confirmed volume on Friday was excellent at 273,944 with the help of high frequency traders.   On this 2nd day of notice in the December contract, we  had only 109  notices filed for 10900 oz  which basically shows that the comex is probably having trouble locating any quantity of good delivery bars.

And now for the wild silver comex results.    Silver OI rose by 1,232   contracts from  153,876 up t0 155,108 as  silver down by $1.06 on Friday.      The big December active contract month saw it’s OI fall by 2215  contracts down to 1735 contracts. We had 1614 notices served upon for Friday’s delivery.  Thus we lost 601 contracts or  3,005,000 oz will not stand.  The  estimated volume today was excellent at 69,834.  The confirmed volume on Friday  was huge at 80,675. We also had 517 notices filed  today for 2,585,000 oz today.

December initial standings


Dec 1.2014



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz 40,600.000 oz (Scotia) not kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today  109 contracts(10,900 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 4427 contracts (442,700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  691 contracts  (69,100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 69,932.310  oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

total dealer withdrawal:  nil   oz

we had 0 dealer deposits:


total dealer deposit:  nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal and this one defies logic:

total withdrawal:  40,600.000 oz (not divisible by 32.15 oz and therefore not kilobars)  How on earth can this be????

we had 0 customer deposit:


total customer deposits : nil oz

We had 1 adjustments:

i) Out ofHSBC:

43.46 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this gold just evaporated into thin air out of the comex vaults.

Total dealer inventory:  812,870.907 oz or 25.28 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =  7.888 million oz. (244.35) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 58 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

Today, 0 notices was issued from  JPMorgan dealer account and 22 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 109 contracts  of  which 46 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 1  notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (691) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of December (4536) – the number of gold notices filed today (109)  x 100 oz  =  the amount of gold oz standing for the December contract month.

Thus the  initial standings:

691  (notices filed for the month x 100 oz + 4536) OI for November – 109 (no of notices filed today equals 511,800 oz  standing for the December contract month or 15.919 tonnes)


we lost a massive 6,389 contracts or 638,900 oz standing.

This initiates the month of December for gold.

And now for silver

Dec 1/2014:

 December silver: initial standings



Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil  oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 982,620.74 oz(CNT,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) 517 contracts  (2,585,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  1218 contracts (6,090,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2131 contracts (10,655,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

 total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total  dealer withdrawal: nil  oz

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

total customer withdrawal  nil  oz

We had 2 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT: 361,585.300 oz (again just one decimal)

ii) Into Scotia:  621,035.44 oz

total customer deposits: 982,620.740   oz

we had 0 adjustments


Total dealer inventory:  65.197 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer)   177.990 million oz.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 517 contracts or 8,070,000 oz.  To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2131 ) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of December (1735) minus  (the number of notices filed today (517) x 5,000 oz =   the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.

Thus:  2131 contracts x 5000 oz  +  (1735) OI for the November contract month – 517 (the number of notices filed today)  =6,745,000 oz of silver that will stand for delivery in December.

For those wishing to see data on the currencies and bourse closings you can see it on my site

athttp://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com or http://www.harveyorganblog.com


The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold.  I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China


vs no sellers of GLD paper.



And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:


December 1.2014: no change in gold inventory at GLD

Nov 28.2014: a loss  in inventory of 1.19 tonnes/tonnage 717.63 tonnes

Nov 26.2014: we lost 2.09 tonnes of gold heading to India and or China/inventory at 718.82 tonnes

Nov 25.2014/no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 720.91 tonnes

Nov 24.2015: no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 720.91 tonnes

Nov 21.2014: no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 720.91 tonnes

Nov 20.2014; no changes in tonnage of gold at the GLD/tonnage 720.91 tonnes

Nov 19.2014: we lost 2.1 tonnes of gold/Inventory back to 720.91 tonnes.  No doubt physical gold is heading to China.

Nov 18.2014: no change in inventory/ Inventory level 723.01 tonnes

Nov 17.2014; we had a huge addition of 2.39 tonnes of gold added to the GLF inventory/inventory rests tonight at 723.01 tonnes. They may be running out of metal to give China!!!

Nov 14. we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 720.62 tonnes

nov 13. we lost another 2.05 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 720.62 tonnes

Nov 12.2014; we lost another 1.79 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 722.67 tonnes

This gold left the shores of England and landed in Shanghai.

Today, December 1  no change of gold inventory at the GLD

inventory: 717.63 tonnes.

The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold  departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.   There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks).

GLD :  717.63 tonnes.






And now for silver:


December 1: no change in inventory/347.954 million oz

Nov 28.2014: no change in inventory/347.954 million oz

Nov 26.2014; no change in inventory/347.954 million oz

Nov 25.14 we had a loss of  1.342 million oz from the SLV/inventory 347.954 million oz

Nov 24.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 349.296 million oz

Nov 21.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV

Inventory:  349.296 million oz

Nov 20.2014; no change/inventory 349.296 million oz

Nov 19.2014: a huge addition of silver inventory to the tune of 2.396 million oz/inventory 349.296 million oz

Nov 18.2014; no change in silver inventory  346.90 million oz

Nov 17.2014 .SLV inventories remain constant tonight at 346.90 million oz

Nov 14.2014; wow!! we had an addition of 2.012 million oz into the SLV/inventory at 346.900 million oz

Nov 13. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/344.888 million oz.

Nov 12.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests tonight at 344.888 million oz.  And please note that gold leaves GLD/silver does not.  Why? there is no physical silver at the SLV..just paper obligations.

Nov 11.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests tonight at 344.888 million oz.



December 1.2014 no change in inventory/347.954 million oz.




And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:



Note:  Sprott silver fund now deeply into the positive to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at Negative 8.1% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative   8.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold  62.2%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.20%

cash .6%

( December 1/2014)   

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to positive 3.4% NAV (Nov 28/2014)  will update later tonight  

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  rises to negative -0.23% to NAV(Nov 28/2014) will update later tonight.

Note: Sprott silver trust back hugely into positive territory at 3.4%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at  -0.23%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.