Harvey Organ: Oil Plunge Blows Up Bank Derivatives, Gold & Silver SURGE!

Today we had a lot of developments.  First WTI broke into the 47 dollar column creating havoc for our sovereign countries loaded with oil e.g Canada, Russia, USA, England (North sea), Venezuela etc.  The dollar keeps rising due to the breaking up of the dollar carry trade.
As we have mentioned to you on many occasions, this in turn blows up the derivatives in oil and the major banks who have underwritten much of these contracts when oil was north of 100 dollars per barrel.
It certainly looks like the bankers are having a tough time trying to contain gold– 
Generally the bankers do not like to see gold/silver rise on two consecutive days, but that is exactly what we got today…

 

Submitted by Harvey Organ: 

dynamite

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold: $1219.30 up $15.40   (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.60 up 42 cents  (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

Gold $1218.50
silver $16.53

 

 

Today we had a lot of developments. First WTI breaks into the 47 dollar column creating havoc for our sovereign countries loaded with oil e.g Canada, Russia, USA, England (North sea), Venezuela etc.  The dollar keeps rising due to the breaking up of the dollar carry trade. As we have mentioned to you on many occasions, this in turn blows up the derivatives in oil and the major banks who have underwritten much of these contracts when oil was north of 100 dollars per barrel. It certainly looks like the bankers are having a tough time trying to contain gold.

Generally the bankers do not like to see gold/silver rise on two consecutive days, but that is what we got today.

Over in Greece, the Oxford Economic group have done a lot of research into the upcoming election and they have come to the conclusion that Syriza will have a majority and as such Syriza can ask for a Greek haircut or pullout of the Euro monetary zone.  Markets reacted negatively to this news.

In other developments we are witnessing the Euro/Swiss Franc trade at 1.20088 as I publish this report.  The Swiss National bank is the only guys bidding for Euros.  If this all important 1.20 peg is broken you can be assured this will create a lot of havoc for the Swiss government and its citizens.

 

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz. Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz.

Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 246.72 tonnes for a loss of 56 tonnes over that period.

 

In silver, the open interest rose by  17 contracts as yesterday’s silver price rose by 45 cents. It is obvious that somebody is taking on the banks.   The total silver OI still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 151,282 contracts. The January silver OI contract reads 91 contracts.

 

In gold we had an increase in OI with the rise  in price of gold on yesterday to the tune of $12.90. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 378,485 for a gain of 3,391 contracts. The January gold contract reads 150 contracts

 

TRADING OF GOLD AND SILVER TODAY

 

you have more important things to read instead of how gold/silver traded today.

 

 

Today,  we lost 2.99 tonnes of gold/Inventory 707.82 tonnes

 

 

In silver, we lost 149,000 oz of   silver inventory/

SLV’s inventory rests tonight at 329.415 million oz

 

 

.

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today

.

First: GOFO rates:

Today, the rates hardly moved. The one month GOFO stayed stationary and in backwardation.  The two month GOFO  moved more negative.

The Three MOnth GOFO went to zero and thus still in backwardation.  The 6 month and 12 month are positive and out of backwardation and it moved more to the positive needle.

 

 

 

Sometime in January the LBMA will officially stop providing the GOFO rates.

 

Jan 6 2015

 

-.05%                     -0300%                       -.00%                +.0167            .145%

 

Jan 5 2014:

 

 

-.05%                     -.025%                  -.01330 %               +.015%               +.1375%

 

 

end

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

 

 

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest rose today by 3,301 contracts from  375,184 all the way up to 378,485  with gold up by $12.90 yesterday (at the comex close).  We are now onto the January contract month.   The non active January contract month saw it’s OI fall by 209 contracts down to 150. We had 0 contracts served yesterday.  Thus we lost a massive 209 contracts or 20,900 oz will not stand.  Obviously this was cash settled with a fiat bonus.  The next big delivery month is February and here the OI rose by 1819 contracts to 218,396 contracts. The estimated volume today was poor at 76,287. The confirmed volume  yesterday was fair at 159,496 contracts, even although  they had some help from our high frequency traders. The comex now has no credibility and many investors have vanished from this crooked casino. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz .

 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by 17 contracts from  151,265 up to 151,282 as silver was up by 45  cents  yesterday. The front January contract month saw its OI fall by 12 contracts down to 91. We had 12 notices filed yesterday, so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts standing for silver in the January contract month. The next big contract month is March and here the OI fell by 346 contracts down to 102,606.  The estimated volume today was simply awful at 17,598. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent at 50,058. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

 

January initial standings

 

Jan 6.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 36,972.500 (Scotia)  1150 kilobars oz
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts(nil  oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  150 contracts (15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  2 contracts(200 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 192.9 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer deposit:

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 customer withdrawals

 

total customer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

 

 

we had 1 customer deposits:  the farce continues

i) Into Scotia; 36,972.500 oz (1150 kilobars)

 

total customer deposits;  36,972.500 oz  oz

 

 

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

Today, 0 notice was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (2) x 100 oz  or 200 oz to which we add the difference between the January OI (150) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz  =15,200   the amount of gold oz standing for the January contract month. (.4727 tonnes of gold)

 

we lost a whopping 20,900 oz to cash settlements.

 

Thus the initial standings:

2 (notices filed for the month x 100 oz) +OI for January (150) – 0(no. of notices served upon today) =15,200 oz (.4727 tonnes)

 

 

we lost a whopping 20900 oz to cash settlements.

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 770,987.09 oz or 23.98 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.932 million oz. (246.72) tonnes)

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 56 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

 

This initializes the month of January for gold.

 

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

 

 

Jan 6 2015:

 

 

 January silver: initial standings

 

 

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 1,178,381.35 (Delaware, HSBC,Scotia)  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (60,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 91 contracts (455,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 28 contracts (140,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  1,714,405.5 oz

 

Silver Shield 2015

 

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

 

 

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

total customer deposit  nil oz

 

 

We had 3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  5,926.75 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 914,827.26 oz

iii) Out of Scotia;  257,627.34 oz

total customer withdrawal: 1,178,381.35 oz

 

 

we had 1 adjustments

 

i)Out of Delaware/an accounting error and 1058.78 oz was subtracted out of inventory.

 

Total dealer inventory: 64.662 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.359 million oz.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in December, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (28) x 5,000 oz  to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of January (91) – the Number of notices served upon today (0) x 5,000 oz  = 595,000 oz the number of ounces standing so far for the January delivery month.

 

Initial standings for silver for the January contract month:

28 contracts x 5000 oz= 140,000 oz  +OI standing so far in January  (91)- no. of notices served upon today(0) x 5,000 oz  = 595,000 oz

 

 

we neither gained nor lost silver ounces standing for the January contract month.

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

Jan 6.2015: we lost 2.99 tonnes of gold from the GLD./Inventory 709.82

 

 

Jan 5/2015 we added 1.79 tonnes of gold inventory into the GLD/Inventory tonight: 710.81 tonnes

 

Jan 2 2015: inventory remained constant/inventory 709.02 tonnes

 

Dec 31.2014: we lost another 1.79 tonnes of gold at the GLD today/Inventory 709.02 tonnes

 

Dec 30.2014/ we lost 1.49 tonnes of gold at the GLD today/inventory 710.81 tonnes

 

Dec 29.2014 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 712.30 tonnes

 

Dec 26.2013/ a small loss of .6 tonnes of gold.  Inventory tonight at 712.30 tonnes

 

Dec 24.2014: wow!! somebody robbed the cookie jar/ we had a huge withdrawal of 11.65 tonnes from the GLD inventory/inventory at 712.90 tonnes. England must be bleeding badly!

 

Dec 23.2014; no change in gold inventory at GLD/724.55 tonnes

 

Dec 22.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/724.55 tonnes

Dec 19.2014: a huge addition of 2.99 tonnes at the GLD/724.55 tonnes

Dec 18.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tonnes

Dec 17.2014: no change in inventory at the GLD/721.56 tones

Dec 16.2015  we lost 1.80 tonnes in tonnage at the GLD/721.56 tonnes

Dec 15.2014: we lost 2.39 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 723.36 tonnes

dec 12.2014: we had no change in gold inventory/GLD inventory 725.75 tonnes

Dec 11.2014: we had another addition of .95 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 725.75 tonnes

 

 

 

 

Today, Jan 6/2015 / we lost 2.99 tonnes in gold   inventory at the GLD /Inventory rests tonight at 707.82 tonnes

 

inventory: 707.82 tonnes.

 

 

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 707.82 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

jAN 6.2015: we had a small loss of  149,000 oz/inventory 329.415 million oz

 

Jan 5 no change in silver inventory/Inventory at 329.564 million oz

 

jan 2.2015: no change in silver inventory/ Inventory 329.564 million oz

Dec 31.2014: we had no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory

at 329.564 million oz

Dec 30.2014: we lost another 574,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory at 329.564 million oz/

 

Dec 29.2014 we had a small loss of 431,000 oz at the SLV to probably pay for fees/inventory 330.138 million oz.

 

Dec 26/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory 330.569

million oz.

 

Dec 24.2014: we had a huge loss of 7.566 million oz/inventory 330.569 million oz

 

Dec 23.2014: no change in silver inventory/338.135 million oz

 

Dec 22.2014: today we lost 862,000 oz of silver inventory from the SLV.  this left late Friday night./Inventory 338.135  million oz

Dec 19.2014; No change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory 338.997 million oz.

Dec 18.2014: we lost 2.012 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/inventory 338.997 million oz

Dec 17.2014: no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz

Dec 16.2014/ no change in silver inventory/SLV 341.009 million oz

 

 

Jan 6/2015 /we had a small loss of in silver inventory at the SLV to the tune of 149,000 oz

registers: 329.415 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 8.2% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 8.0 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.8%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.8.%

cash .4%

 

 

( Jan 6/2015)

 

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 1.08%!!!!! NAV (Jan 6/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to negative -0.48% to NAV(Jan 6/2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +1.08%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at -0.48%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.