Harvey Organ: Metals Rocket Higher- “Specs Are Going to be Buried!”

Today we had some short covering in the silver COMEX with the silver OI falling by 2175 contracts.  Gold OI again rises by close to 6000 contracts.  Both gold and silver rose nicely today but silver was the standout.
Our bankers are having real trouble in silver. It seems that they are going to destroy the specs in gold but they are not having their way in silver.
The big news is the continual removal of  gold from the COMEX. From the start of the month 12 tonnes of gold has been removed from the customer side.
The COT report shows the commercials buying gold  (and covering shortfalls) in massive quantities.  It’s net short position is only 54,000 contracts.  It looks like the specs are going to be buried.

 

Harvey Organ

Submitted by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

 

Gold:  $1184.80 up $15.70 (comex closing time)

Silver: $16.87 up 77  cents (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

 

Gold $1183.50

Silver: $16.76

 

 

Gold/silver trading:  see Market Data here: 

 

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz.  Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz .

 

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 243.75 tonnes for a loss of 59 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

 

In silver, the open interest fell by 2175 contracts, due to short covering, as yesterday’s silver price was up by 58 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 176,948 contracts. The front month of March fell by 3 contracts to 571 contracts. We are still close to multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.

 

 

We had  0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

In gold we had a huge rise in OI as gold was up by $17.70 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 436,331 for a gain of 5994 contracts. Today, surprisingly we again had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

Today, we had no changes  at the GLD/ inventory at  the  GLD/Inventory rests at 749.77  tonnes

 

 

In silver, /SLV  we had no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory, remaining at 327.332 million oz

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1, Today we had some short covering in the silver comex with the silver OI falling by 2175 contracts.  Gold OI again rises by close to 6000 contracts.  Both gold and silver rose nicely today but silver was the standout.

The big news is the continual removal of  gold from the comex. From the start of the month 12 tonnes of gold has been removed from the customer side.

 

The COT report shows the commercials buying gold  (and covering shortfalls) in massive quantities.  It’s net short position is only 54,000 contracts.  It looks like the specs are going to be buried.

In silver, no so.  Whoever is the long on silver seems to have everything under control and this is bothering our bankers greatly.

 

(report by Harvey)

2, Bloomberg comes out with figures that suggest that Greece is still short by 3.7 billion euros for the end of the month financing.  Even if they obtain the 1.9 billion euros that Greece is owed, they are still short.

 

(Bloomberg/zero hedge)

3.On Wednesday, the big news  was the dovish report from the FOMC/gold and commodities rose with the Euro and just about all currencies rising against the dollar. Today we saw a repeat action in the currencies following yesterday’s reversal.

(zero hedge)

 

4. Koos Jansen reports another huge 51 tonnes of gold demanded by China  (SGE removals)  To date: 508 tonnes of gold.

 

5.  Rig counts continue to plunge yet production is still elevated as shale firms in the USA desperately need the revenue to feed the interest owed on bonds issued.

 

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/zero hedge)

 

 

6.More countries are leaving the USA fold, by joining the new Chinese development bank.  Today, Switzerland and Japan are joining.

(zero hedge)

 

7.  Finally, we have a report showing global earnings falling faster than Lehman.

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

we have these and other stories for you tonight.

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest rose by 5994 contracts from 430,337 up to 436,331 as gold was up by $17.70 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the contract month of March which saw it’s OI fell to 111 for a loss of 14 contracts. We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday so we  lost 14 gold contracts or additional 1400 oz will not stand for delivery in this delivery month of March. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 686 contracts up to 203,231. We have less than two weeks before first day notice for the April gold contract month. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 72,040.  (Where on earth are the high frequency boys?). The confirmed volume on yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 175,115 contracts. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

 

Libertad

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI fell by 2,175 contracts from 179,123 down to 176,948 despite the fact that silver was up by 58 cents with respect yesterday’s trading and equally astonishing that the volume yesterday was extremely light. We therefore had some short covering. We are now in the active contract month of March and here the OI fell by 3 contracts falling to 571. We had 3 contracts served upon yesterday. Thus we neither lost nor gained any silver contracts standing in this March delivery month. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 19,256 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours.  The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 44,921 contracts which is good in volume. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

 

 

March initial standings

March 20.2015

 

 

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz   67,368.132  oz  (Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 32,150.000 (1000 Kilobars) Scotia
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  111 contracts (12,500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 8 contracts(800 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month  114,790.651 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month  626,388.9 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transaction

 

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 dealer deposit

 

 

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

 

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Scotia:  67,368.132 oz

 

 

total customer withdrawal: 67,368.132 oz

 

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

We had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

 

 

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8) x 100 oz  or  800 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (111) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:

No of notices served so far (8) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (111) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz} =  11,900 oz or  .3701 tonnes

 

we lost 1400 additional ounces that will not stand for delivery in this March contract month.

 

Total dealer inventory: 658,537.414 oz or 20.48 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.836 million oz. (243.75) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 59.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for silver

 

 

 

March silver initial standings

March 20 2015:

 

 

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 1,550,429.424 oz (Scotia, HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 9173.26 oz (CNT)
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (15,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 571 contracts (2,855,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2004 contracts (10,020,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  6,349,204.2 oz

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

 

 

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

total customer deposit: nil oz

 

 

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

 

i) Out of HSBC:  1,515,142.034 oz

ii) Out of Scotia; 35,287.39 oz

 

total withdrawals;  1,550,429.424 oz

 

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 70.021 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.874 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 3 contracts for 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2004) x 5,000 oz    = 10,020,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (571) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz  equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:

2004 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March(571) -number of notices served upon today (0} x 5000 oz =  12,875,000 oz standing for the March contract month.

we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing in this March delivery month.

 

Eagle

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

march 20/we had no changes in  inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes

 

March 19/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory 749.77 tonnes

 

 

March 18/ we had a withdrawal of .9 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes

 

March 17.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes

 

March 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes

 

 

March 13/ we had a small change in gold inventory at the GLD (small withdrawal/probably to pay for fees)/Inventory at 750.67 tonnes

March 12.we had a withdrawal of 2.09 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 750.95 tonnes

March 11.2015: no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 753.04 tonnes

March 10 no report on the GLD tonight/computer down/inventory remains 753.04 tonnes

March 9/ we had another huge withdrawal of 3.38 tonnes of gold from the GLD, no doubt heading for Shanghai/Inventory 753.04 tonnes

March 6/we had a huge withdrawal of 4.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory rests tonight at 756.32/Also HSBC is getting out of the gold business in London and is giving up all of its 7 vaults.

 

 

 

 

 

March 20/2015 /  we had no changes at GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes

inventory: 749.77 tonnes.

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 749.77 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

March 20/ no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

March 19/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

March 18/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

March 17/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

March 16/no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

 

March 13.2015: no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 12: no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 11/no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 10/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 9/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.332 million oz

March 6: huge addition of 1.34 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 727.332 million oz

March 5 no change in inventory/725.992 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 20/2015 no change in    silver inventory at the SLV/ SLV inventory rests tonight at 327.332 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

Not available tonight

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  6.3% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.4%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.1%

cash .5%

( March 20/2015)

 

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 0.96%!!!!! NAV (March 20/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to -.13% to NAV(March 20  /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +0.96%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.13%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

At 3:30 pm we get our COT report which gives position levels of our major players.

 

Due to the big rebound in gold, these numbers are extremely important if accurately supplied by the CME:

 

 

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
162,268 109,175 46,560 180,464 236,954 389,292 392,689
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-9,553 19,246 3,303 25,886 -6,966 19,636 15,583
Traders
131 96 79 56 55 227 198
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
40,446 37,049 429,738  
-816 3,237 18,820  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Our large speculators; (it looks like are specs have been burnt again)

 

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a huge 9553 contracts from their long side and they are not happy campers tonight

 

Those large specs that have been short in gold added a monstrous 19,246 contracts to their short side and they are sitting shiva tonight.

 

Our commercials;

 

Those commercials that have been long in gold added a monstrous 25,886 contracts to their long side

 

Those commercials that have been short in gold covered 6966 contracts from their short side

 

Small specs;

Those small specs that have been long in gold covered a smallish 237 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 3818 contracts to their short side.

 

conclusion:

I strongly believe that the 3 1/2 yr whacking of gold is over.

 

The commercials are only net short by 56,490 contracts. I am sure that Turd Ferguson will report on this and explain why the game is over. You will see a massive short squeeze on our long speculators.

 

and now for silver:

 

(let’s see if silver follows in gold’s footsteps)

 

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculator Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
61,649 37,238 23,631 72,202 102,412
3,683 5,244 142 6,349 3,296
Traders
86 49 43 42 44
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 178,524 Long Short
21,042 15,243 157,482 163,281
-775 717 9,399 10,174 8,682
non reportable positions Positions as of: 148 122
Tuesday, March 17, 2015   ©

 

Our large specs:

 

Those large specs that have been long in silver added another 3683 contracts to their long side (in total contrast to gold)

Those large specs that have been short in silver added another 5244 contracts to their short side

 

Our commercials:

 

Those commercials that have been long in silver added another 6349

contracts to their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in silver added( ???) another 3296 contracts to their short side.

 

Small specs;

Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched 775 contracts to their long side

 

Those small specs that have been short in silver added another 717 contracts to their short side.

 

Conclusions:  our bankers are having real trouble in silver. It seems that they are going to destroy the specs in gold but they are not having their way in silver.