Harvey Organ: Is a Silver Short Squeeze Coming?

We are now at multi year high in the total OI complex despite the low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end. The COT report on Friday in silver showed the commercials going long in silver in a big way and the large specs going short. 
Is a short squeeze coming?

 

Harvey Organ

Submitted by Harvey Organ:

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

Gold:  $1214.00 up $10.70 (comex closing time)

Silver: $16.59 up 20 cents (comex closing time)

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1212.50

Silver: $16.65

 

 

 

Yesterday was options expiry on the comex.  On Thursday we will have options expiry on the LBMA in London and on the OTC market as well. Today again was a welcomed change from our bankers normal behaviour of whacking silver and gold during options expiry week. However we still have 2 more days before first day notice.

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

At the gold comex today,  we had a good delivery day, registering 403 notices served for 40,300 oz.  Silver comex filed with 72 notices for 360,000  oz .

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 241.13 tonnes for a loss of 62 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!

 

end

 

In silver, the open interest fell by 2132 contracts despite the fact that Monday’s silver price was up by 76 cents.It sure looks like we had some short covering by the crooked bankers. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 185,872 contracts rising to multi-year record highs. The front April month has an OI of 72 contracts for a gain of 50 contracts. We are now at multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end. The COT report on Friday in silver showed the commercials going long in silver in a big way and the large specs going short.  Is a short squeeze coming?

 

 

In silver had 72 notices served upon for 360,000 oz.

 

 

In gold,  the total comex gold OI rests tonight at 404,718 for a loss of 14,095 contracts despite the fact that gold was up by $28.10 yesterday. We had 403 notices served upon for 40,300 oz. Why the huge loss in OI? short covering? liquidation prior to next delivery month?

 

 

Today, we no change in gold inventory at the GLD/  Gold Inventory rests at 739.06  tonnes.

 

In silver, /  /we had a huge addition of 1.434 million oz of  silver inventory to the SLV/ and thus the inventory tonight is 330.636 million oz

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1. Today we had the open interest in silver fall by 2,132, contracts despite the rise in price yesterday (76 cents). Not only that but the OI for the front month of May fell by only 18,254 contracts as we have only 2 trading days left before first day notice.  The OI for gold fell by 14,095 contracts down to 404,718 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold was up by $28.10 on Monday.

(report Harvey)

 

2,One important commentaries on Greece today:

Last week, we reported that sovereign Greece will raid the pension fund as well as municipality funds as they hope to garner around 2.5 billion euros.  Payroll for federal employees is on Thursday.  Yesterday we were told that at most there is only 500 million euros that was available to be transferred and then late in the day, the municipalities voted to not send the money over.  Today we learn that Greece is short by 500 million euros in their quest to pay salaries and pensioners on Thursday.  With the hope that the EU will release some of the 7.2 billion euros promised from the last bailout, Greece hopes to pass some Troika friendly reforms e.g. a single 18% VAT across the board (except medicine)

 

(zero hedge)

3. On Tuesday we reported on the arrest of a single trader who acted alone on that famous flash crash in May of 2010.  This trader resides in England.   The trader, Sarao will fight the extradition as he cites that many others are doing the same thing. Zero hedge writes his promised open letter to the CFTC on how spoofing and layering are manipulating the prices of commodities and stocks and he will document these illegal activities on a daily basis to the CFTC. ON Friday Michael Lewis, author of the Crash Boys ridicules the CFTC.  Also zero hedge alleges that the reason the CFTC went after Sarao was due to the fact that he was eating into the HFT profits. The HFT crooks wanted Sarao removed..so they asked the CFTC to arrest him and they obliged. Today zero hedge describes spoofing and layering in the gold market.

(zero hedge)

 

4.  Retail sales in Japan plummet

(zero hedge)

5. UK experiences slow growth ahead of elections in two months

(zero hedge)

6. A Dutch vessel was seized by Iran and tugged to an Iranian port.

(zero hedge)

7. USA consumer confidence falters.  Also a big miss in the Richmond Fed Mfg Index.

(Richmond Fed/zero hedge)

 

we have these and other stories for you tonight

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

The total gold comex open interest fell by 14,095 contracts from 418,813 down to 404,718 despite the fact that gold was up by $28.10 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 26 contracts down to 415. We had 25 contracts filed yesterday so we lost 1 gold contract or an additional 100 ounces will not stand for delivery in April. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by 7 contracts down to 273.  The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 13,507 contracts down to 260,457. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calendar. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 71,770. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 229,869 contracts. Today we had 403 notices filed for 40,300 oz.

 

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI fell by 2132 contracts from 188,004 down to 185,872 despite the fact that the price of silver was up in price by 76 cents, with respect to yesterday’s trading.  Somebody big is willing to take on JPMorgan.We must have had some guys leaving the silver arena as they did not like what they saw.  We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the OI rose to 72 contracts for a gain of 50 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 50 silver contract or an additional 250,000 ounces will stand in this delivery month of April. The next big active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by 18,254 contracts down to 23,361.  We have 2 trading days left before first day notice on Thursday, April 30.2015. The estimated volume today was good at 57,004 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 123,796 contracts which is excellent in volume except we had many rollovers. We had 72 notices filed for 360,000 oz today.

 

 

April initial standings

April 28.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  6,839.22 (Delaware, Brinks)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today 403 contracts (40,300 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  12 contracts(1200) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 2789 contracts(278,900 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   573,638.8 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transaction

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 dealer deposit

 

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

we had 2 customer withdrawals

 i) Out of Delaware:  200.0000 oz (how could this be possible??)

ii) Out of Brinks: 6639.22 oz

total customer withdrawal: 6,839.22 oz

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

total customer deposit: nil oz

 

We had 0 adjustment:

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 211 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 403 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 372 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2789) x 100 oz  or  278,900 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (415) and the number of notices served upon today (403) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for gold for the April contract month:

No of notices served so far (2789) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (415) – the number of  notices served upon today (403) x 100 oz which equal 280,100 oz or 8.712 tonnes of gold.

 

 

we lost 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will not stand for delivery in this April contract month. We will have to wait until midnight tonight to see if they will serve upon these 12 contracts outstanding for they will probably cash settle (as they are accustomed to do)

 

This has been the lowest amount of gold ounces standing in an active month in quite some time.

 

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 603,795.373 or 18.78 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,745,701.901  oz. (240.92) tonnes)

 

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 240.92 tonnes for a loss of 62 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

 

April silver initial standings

April 28 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 259,426.72 oz (Brinks,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 300,322.500 oz (Brinks)
No of oz served (contracts) 72 contracts  (360,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 0 contracts (nil oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 566 contracts (2,830,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  884,245.2 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  11,436,314.6 oz

 

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 1 customer deposits:

i) Into Scotia: 201,858.86 oz

 

 

total customer deposits: 201,858.86  oz

 

We had 3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware:  1071.584 oz

ii) Out of Scotia; 50,826.08  oz

iii)  Out of HSBC:  20,149.57 oz

total withdrawals;  72,047.234 oz

 

we had 0 adjustments:

 

Total dealer inventory: 62.635 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 175.361 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 72 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (566) x 5,000 oz    = 2,830,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (72) and the number of notices served upon today (72) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the April contract month:

556 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(72) -number of notices served upon today (72} x 5000 oz =  2,580,000 oz standing for the April contract month.

 

we gained 250,000 additional silver ounces that will stand for delivery in this April contract month.

 

PrivateerSDBullion

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

April 28/ no change in inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 27. we lost 3.29 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 739.06 tonnes

April 24. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 23. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 22. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 21.2015: a huge addition of 3.26 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 742.35 tonnes

April 20.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 739.06 tonnes

April 17.2015/ we had a huge addition of 3.01 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD.  It looks like the raids at the GLD have stopped.

April 16.2015: no change in inventory at the GLD/total inventory at 736.08 tonnes

April 15/ a huge addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold inventory added to the GLD/ Inventory tonight at 736.08 tonnes

April 14/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 734.29 tonnes

April 13.2015: we had a withdrawal of 1.75 tonnes of GLD/Inventory at 734.29 tonnes

 

 

 

April 28/2015 /  we had no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory stands at 739.06 tonnes

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 739.06 tonnes.

 

end

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

April 28?another huge addition of 1.434 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 330.636 million oz

 

April 27.we had a huge addition of 2.976 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 329.202 million oz

April 24/ we had a small withdrawal of 88,000 oz of silver at the SLV/326.226 million oz

April 23.no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

 April 22/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

April 21.2015/we had another huge addition of 1.434 million oz of silver into the SLV

April 20/ no change in silver inventory tonight/SLV 324.900 million oz.

April 17.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV.324.900 million oz

April 16.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz

April 15.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz is the inventory tonight.

 

 

 

April 28/2015 we had a huge addition (deposit) in inventory at the SLV (1.434 million oz / inventory rests at 330.636 million

 

 

end

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

 

Central fund of Canada data not available today/

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.5% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.90%

cash .4%

( April 28/2015)

 

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 0.90%!!!!! NAV (April 28/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to -.31% to NAV(April 28/2015

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +0.90%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.31%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.