Harvey Organ: GOFO Rates Head Deeper into Backwardation!

GOFO rates headed deeper into backwardation Monday as the physical gold market continues to tighten from physical shortages. 
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today:

Submitted by Harvey Organ:

HarveyOrgan1

Gold: $1169.30 down $1.70
Silver: $16.17 up 10 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm:

Gold $1165.00
silver $16.17

The gold comex today had a poor delivery  day, registering  0 notices served for nil oz
A few months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 261.94 tonnes for a loss of 41 tonnes.

In silver, the open interest continues to remain extremely high and today we are close to multi year highs at 177,341 contracts.
To boot, the December silver OI remains extremely high at 119,271.

Today, we had no change in gold Inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests tonight at 741.21 tonnes.

In silver, strangely we see that the SLV inventory actually rose by 958,000 oz:

SLV’s inventory rose by 958,000 oz and rests at 344.373 million oz.

.

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today.

First: GOFO rates: OH OH!!! we are deeper in  backwardation!!

All months basically moved slightly in a negative directions with the first two months GOFO still in the negative. On the 22nd of September the LBMA stated that they will not publish GOFO rates. However today we still received today’s GOFO rates.

It looks to me like these rates are now fully manipulated.

London good delivery bars are still quite scarce.

Nov 3 2014

1 Month Rate: 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month rate 1 yr rate

-.0475%                  -015%               + .02%          + .085%          + .1825%

Oct 31 .2014:

1 Month Rate 2 Month Rate 3 Month Rate 6 month Rate 1 yr rate

-.025% +          +.0025%                  +-0325%           +.0925        + .185%

end

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today,

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest fell by a narrow margin of 1631 contracts from 418,259 down to 416,728 with gold down $27.00 on Friday. Not too many longs left the arena despite the huge whack in gold.  The next delivery month is November and here the OI actually fell by 12 contracts. We had 2 delivery notices filed on Friday so we lost 10 contracts or 1000 oz of gold standing. The big December contract month saw it’s Oi fall by 5,224 contracts down to 268,114.  The estimated volume today was fair at 130,682 .  The confirmed volume on Friday was humongous at 328,215. Strangely on this second day notice, we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

The fun begins with the silver comex results.  The total OI fell marginally by 2266 contracts from 179,608 down to 177,342 yesterday with silver down 31 cents.In ounces, this represents a total of 886 million oz or 126.5% of annual global supply.  We are now in the non active silver contract month of November and here the OI fell by 45 contracts down to 119. We had 44 notices filed on Friday so we lost one contract or 5000 oz standing. The big December active contract month saw it’s OI fall by 4082 contracts down to 119,271. In ounces this is represented by 596 million oz or 85.1% of annual global production  (production = 700 million oz – China). The estimated volume today was fair at 37,508.  The confirmed volume on Friday  was humongous at 90,777. We also had 3 notices filed on first day notice for 15,000 oz.

Data for the November delivery month.

November initial standings

Nov 3.2014

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today   2 contracts( 200 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 65 contracts (6500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  2 contracts  (200 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month    3,547.67  oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 64.30 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

total dealer withdrawal:  nil  oz

total dealer deposit:  nil oz

we had 0 customer withdrawals:

total customer withdrawals :nil  oz

we had 0 customer deposits:

total customer deposit: nil oz

We had 0 adjustments:

Total Dealer inventory: 885,779.97 or   27.55 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =  8.422 million oz. (261.97) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 41 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

Today, 0 notices was issued from  JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0  notices were stopped by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the November contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for today (2) x 100 oz to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of November (55) – the number of gold notices filed today (0)  x 100 oz  =  the amount of gold oz standing for the November contract month.

Thus the in intial standings:

2  (notices filed today x 100 oz +   (55) OI for November – 0 (no of notices filed today = 5700 oz (.177 tonnes)

we lost 1000 oz of gold standing for the November contract month.

 And now for silver:

Nov 3/2014:

 November silver: initial standings

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  103,641.98 oz (CNT)
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 808,949.26 oz
(, Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 592,820.700 oz  CNT
No of oz served (contracts) 44 contracts  (220,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 120 contracts (600,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 44 contracts (220,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  103,641.98 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 1,228,266.6 oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

 total dealer deposit: nil oz

we had 1 dealer withdrawal:

i) out of CNT:  103,641.98 oz

total  dealer withdrawal: 103,641.98  oz

We had 1 customer withdrawals:

i)Out of Scotia: 808,949.26 oz

total customer withdrawal 808,949.26 oz

We had 1 customer deposits:

 i) Into CNT:  592,820.700 oz

total customer deposits: 592,820.700 oz     oz

we had 1 adjustment:

i )Out of Delaware;  138,081.55 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account at Delaware

Total dealer inventory:  66.220 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer)   180.185 million oz.

The total number of notices filed on second day notice total 3 for 15,000 oz.  To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in November, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (47 ) x 5,000 oz to which we add the difference between the total OI for the front month of November(119) minus  (the number of notices filed today (3) x 5,000 oz =   the total number of silver oz standing so far in November.

Thus:  47 contracts x 5000 oz  +  (119) OI for the November contract month – 3 (the number of notices filed today)  = amount standing or 815,000 oz

It looks like China is still in a holding pattern ready to pounce when needed.

end



The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.



***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold.  I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:


i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

 

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

Nov 3.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/741.21 tonnes

Oct 31.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD despite the raid/inventory at 741.21 tonnes

October 30.2014: we had another 1.2 tonnes of gold leave the GLD and heading to Shanghai/Inventory 741.21 tonnes

October 29.2014: we had another .99 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/inventory 742.40 tonnes

Oct 28.2014: we had another withdrawal of exactly 2 tonnes of gold heading to Shanghai;  Inventory 743.39 tonnes

Oct 27.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 745.39 tonnes.

 

Oct 24.2014: a huge withdrawal of 4.48 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory 745.39 tonnes.  This gold is heading to friendly territory: namely Shanghai.

 

Oct 23.2014: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.87 tonnes.

 

Oct 22.2014: we lost another 2.1 tonnes of gold at the GLD. Inventory rests at 749.87 tonnes.  This tonnage no doubt is off to Shanghai.

 

Oct 21.2014: no change in inventory/GLD inventory rests tonight at 751.96 tonnes.

 

Oct 20.2014: wow!! a massive 8.97 tonnes of gold leaves the GLD heading to the friendly shores of Shanghai./Inventory 751.96

 

Oct 17.2014: No change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 760.93 tonnes

 

Oct 16.2015: GLD gained back 1.79 tonnes of gold/inventory 760.93 tonnes

 

Today, Nov 3. no change in   gold inventory   at the GLD

inventory: 741.21 tonnes.

The registered  vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold  departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders.   There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat  (same banks).

GLD gold:  741.21 tonnes.

end

And now for silver:

Nov 3.2014:  this is good news:  the “actual silver inventory” rose by 958,000 oz to 344.373 oz

(I guess there is no physical silver to raid from the SLV vaults:)

October 31.2014: despite the huge raids yesterday and today:  no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 343.415 million oz

October 30.2014; no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 343.415 million oz

October 29.2014 no change in silver inventory at the SLV inventory/343.415 million oz

October 28.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 343.415 million oz

Oct 27.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV

Oct 24.2014: as of 6 pm, there is no change in silver inventory at the SLV. Note the difference between gold and silver.  Gold leaves the vault of GLD as little silver leaves the SLV.  (I guess it means that there is no silver to give to the banker participants)/Inventory:  343.415 million oz

Oct 23.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV (as of 6 pm est

Inventory: 343.415 million oz

Oct 22.2014: no change in silver inventory at the SLV ( as of 6 pm est)

Inventory: 343.415

Oct 21.2014; no change in silver inventory at the SLV (as of 6 pm est)

Oct 20.2014: we lost 1.15 million oz of silver inventory at the SLV/inventory 343.415 million oz

Oct 17.2014: no change in silver inventory/344.565 million oz

 Today, Nov 3..2014: we had an addition of .958,000 oz of silver/inventory 344.373 million oz

end

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note:  Sprott silver fund now deeply into the positive to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded  at Negative 9.8% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative   9.5% to NAV for Cdn funds

Percentage of fund in gold  61.1%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.40%

cash .5%


.( Nov 3/2014)   

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to positive 4.68% NAV (Nov 3/2014)  

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  falls to negative -0.88% to NAV(Nov 3/2014)

Note: Sprott silver trust back hugely into positive territory at 4.68%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in negative territory at  -0.88%