Harvey Organ: COMEX Gold Margin Hike!

CMEHere come the CME Margin Hikes in gold and silver…

 

Harvey Organ
FEB 12/A MASSIVE 11.98 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT SLV/CME INITIATES HIKE IN MARGIN FOR COMEX GOLD AND THAT SENDS GOLD DOWN A BIT/GOLD EQUITY SHARES STILL RISE TODAY/COT REPORT SHOWS THE BANKS SUPPLYING MASSIVE NON BACKED PAPER TRYING TO QUELL GOLD/SILVER’S PRICE ADVANCE/ANOTHER LARGE LIQUIDATION IN OIL ETF CAUSES OIL TO SPIKE HIGHER TODAY/EXPECT OIL TO BE MUCH LOWER ON MONDAY/KOOS JANSEN IN HIS COMMENTARY SUGGESTS THAT LONDON IS BASICALLY OUT OF GOLD/BUSINESS INVENTORIES TO SALES AT RECORD 1.39 INDICATING SEVERE RECESSION AHEAD OF US/

 

Gold:  $1,239.10 down $8.80    (comex closing time)

Silver 15.78 down 1  cent

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1138.00

Silver: $15.74

 

The major reason for gold to be “under the weather” today: the crooked CME raised margins on gold futures at the close of trading today.  Interestingly enough, even though gold was down today, gold/silver equity shares rose.

 

(courtesy Kitco)

CME Group Hiking Margins On Comex Gold Futures As Of Friday Close

Friday February 12, 2016 08:07

(Kitco News) – CME Group is raising margins on gold futures as of the end of business on Friday, the exchange operator reported.

The “initial” margin for speculators on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange will rise to $4,675 from $4,125. The “maintenance” margin for existing accounts, as well as all hedge accounts, will increase to $4,250 from $3,750. The margin will also change for smaller-sized contracts.

Margins act as collateral for holders of positions in futures market, with traders putting up only a small percentage of the total value of a contract. In a notice late Thursday, CME Group said the increases were “per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate collateral coverage.”

A link to the full notice for the gold margins, as well as margin changes in a number of other markets, can be seen right here.

 

Buy Silver Eagles SD Bullion

 

At the gold comex today, we had a good delivery day, registering 44 notices for 4400 ounces. Silver saw 41 notices for 205,000 oz.

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 204.26 tonnes for a loss of 99 tonnes over that period.

In silver, the open interest rose by a huge 6,379 contracts up to 167,524. In ounces, the OI is still represented by .838 billion oz or 120% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).

In silver we had 41 notices served upon for 205,000 oz.

In gold, the total comex gold OI rose by 6,379 contracts to 424,537 contracts as the price of gold was up $53.20 with yesterday’s trading.

We had a mammoth change in gold inventory at the GLD, a huge deposit of 11.98 tonnes  / thus the inventory rests tonight at 716.01 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex.   In silver,/we had no change  in inventory  and thus/Inventory rests at 308.380 million oz.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

 

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver rise by 6,379 contracts up to 167,524 as the price of silver was up 51 cents with yesterday’s trading.   The total OI for gold rose by 13,180 contracts to 424,537 contracts as gold rose by $53.20 in price from yesterday’s level.

(report Harvey)

2 a) Gold trading overnight, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne)

 

b) COT report

(Harvey)

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 

i) Late  THURSDAY night/ FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed for the Chinese New Year (all week)  / Hang Sang closed badly by 226 points or 1.22% . The Nikkei was closed down 760.78 or 4.84%. Australia’s all ordinaires was also down. Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed 6.5710  and yet they still desire further devaluation throughout this year.   Oil gained  to 27.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 31.31 for Brent. Stocks in Europe so far deeply in the geen . Offshore yuan trades where it finished last Friday at 6.5600 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5710 for onshore yuan/

 

ii)Japanese trading last night:  the Nikkei falters by 4.78%.  The big question is how will the citizenry react when they find that Abe put their pension funds in stocks and they are [email protected]!

( zero hedge)

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)Greece is again in the spotlight as their GDP drops .6% last quarter.Riots on the street as farmers refuse pension reform. Middle eastern migrants are also entering the country causing huge fiscal problems for Greek finances.  There is now renewed calls for a GREXIT:

( zero hedge)

 

ii) Deutsche bank states that the markets are crying out for a circuit breaker but the problem is that they do not know what that breaker is.  We basically have 3 problems in the globe:

a) Japan has lost confidence with their NIRP as the yen has strengthened to 112.90 to the dollar from 123.00 to the dollar.
b) the USA has lost confidence in the market by raising rates even though their economy is faltering
c) that leaves it up to Draghi to stimulate the EU but they are already in NIRP and the banks are suffering  (see below).  Draghi cannot QE anymore as they have bought up most of the bonds already and very little left to monetize:
( Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

iii The “death doom loop” of negative rates  (see below) is having a disastrous effect on European banks.

( zero hedge)

 

iv) VERY IMPORTANT

This is not good:  An ECB leak  (trial balloon?) shows a firm support for another deeper NIRP which will cause further deterioration in banking profits:
see commentary on NIRP’s Death Doom Loop
Note: 1. Bond yields in Europe are lower as investors seek safe haven status as opposed to equities.  Lower bank shares make it difficult for new share offering
2. Asynchronous easing by the Bank of Japan and the EU with the USA tightening  sends the dollar higher and thus commodities lower.  This causes credit deterioration in mining and oil stocks  (e.g. Freeport McMoRan,  Glencore  and major oil companies)
3, the higher USA dollar also raises the Chinese yuan  and thus causes China to act forcing a disorderly devaluation.

( zero hedge)

 

5.GLOBAL ISSUES

i) A very important commentary from zero hedge where they discuss the “Doom Loop”
as countries or entities enter negative rates.  The banking sector becomes increasingly less profitable as they have to pay for excessive reserves and are also afraid to lend out in an economy that is faltering;
“the death doom loop”:
( zero hedge)

ii) Michael Harnett of Bank of of America describes central banker activity as quantitative failure.

a very important read…
( Michael Harnett/Bank of America/zero hedge)
6. OIL ISSUES

i)The real reason for oil’s fall this past yr:  It is not just a supply issue. It is also a downfall in demand:( zero hedge)

 

ii)Two key ramps causes the USA stocks and Europe to rise:

a) USA//Yen rise to 12.90 or so

c) the algo driven rise in oil  (for  the phony reason of the production cut)

( zero hedge)

iii)And now the real reason for the huge volatility in the WTI crude oil contract.
Again we have huge ETF liquidation.  In a nutshell this will revert back to the norm on Monday:
( zero hedge)
iv)Oil responded in a northbound trajectory once the new oil rig count was announced as it plunged by another 28 rigs:

( zero hedge)

 

 

7.PHYSICAL STORIES

 

i)A very interesting discussion from Koos Jansen as he hints that it is quite possible that London is out of gold to supply China.  With gold still in backwardation in London, he is no doubt correct

( Koos Jansen/Bullionstar)

ii)A super commentary from Craig Hemke as he states that the central banks are losing the confidence game and that is why gold is rising!  He notes that Japan has lost confidence with the introduction of NIRP and the uSA has lost confidence with their policy failure on an increase in their rates:

( Craig Hemke/TFMetals Report)

iii)Ambrose Evans Pritchard discusses Japan and how their introduction of negative rates has caused the yen to rise in value instead of falling. This has caused the world to lose confidence as they basically do not know what they are doing.

(Ambrose Evans Pritchard/GATA)
iv) Rival factions developing another “Bitcoin”
(London’s Financial times/GATA)

v) A story on the manipulation of the equities:

( King Report/GATA)

 

vi)The major reason for gold to be “under the weather” today.  The crooked CME raised margins on gold futures at the close of trading:

( Kitco)

 

vii Lawrie on Gold

GLD increases its holdings up to 716 tonnes

(lawrie williams/sharps pixley)

 

8.USA STORIES WHICH WILL INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

 

i)More phony figures from the USA:  the strong January retail sales was all in seasonal adjustments:

( zero hedge)
ii) You will recall that last month business inventories over sales came in at a record 1.32 to one.  January saw business inventories jump while sales tumbled.  Result the new business inventories to sales jump to 1.39 to one.

( zero hedge)
iii)Confidence tumbles!! U. of Michigan confidence index plummets/  USA citizens in a “deflationary mindset”

( zero hedge)
iv) Obama must be exited:  Carrier   (air conditioning corporation) is moving 1400 jobs to Mexico.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest rose to 424,537  for a gain of 13,180 contracts as the price of gold was up $53.20 in price with respect to yesterday’s trading.   For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments with respect to the gold open interest:  1) total gold comex collapse in OI as we enter an active delivery month, and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in an active month.   Today, both scenarios were in order.  In February  the OI fell by 225 contracts down to 736. We had 200 notices filed on yesterday, so we lost 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will not stand for delivery as they were cash settled. The next non active delivery month of March saw its OI rise by 269 contracts up to 2144. After March, the active delivery month of April saw it’s OI rise by 8,269 contracts up to 302,342. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was 209,633 which is fair. The confirmed volume yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was huge at 393,502 contracts. The comex is in backwardation until June. 

 

Today we had 44 notices filed for 4400 oz.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI rose by 6,379 contracts from 161,145 up to 167,525 as the price of silver was up by 51 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading. The next non active delivery month of February saw its OI rise by 29 contracts up to 47. We had 0 notices filed on yesterday, so we gained 29 silver contracts or an additional 145,000 oz will stand in this non active month of February. The next big active contract month is March and here the OI rose by 779 contracts up to 81,717.  The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 57,342 , which is excellent. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex + globex) was huge  at 114,547. Silver is not in backwardation at the comex but is in backwardation in London.
 
We had 41 notices filed for 205,000 oz.
 

Feb contract month:

INITIAL standings for FEBRUARY

Feb 12/2016

Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil  nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz    643.000 ozmanfra

20 kilobars

No of oz served (contracts) today 44 contracts
(44,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 692 contracts (69,200 oz )
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  1962 contracts (196,200 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month 503,410.8 oz
Today, we had 0 dealer transactions
total deposit: nil;
total withdrawals nil.
We had 0  customer withdrawals
we had 1 customer deposit:
i) into Manfra:  643.000 oz (20 kilobars)

we had 2 adjustments.

i) Out of HSBC:

289.35 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer of HSBC

ii) Out of Delaware:

482.25 0z was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer of Delaware

 

Here are the number of oz held by JPMorgan:

 JPMorgan has a total of 72,439.454 oz or 2.253 tonnes in its dealer or registered account.
***JPMorgan now has 634,557.764 or 19.737 tonnes in its customer account.
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 44 contracts of which 0 notice was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 6 notices were stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the Jan contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1962) x 100 oz  or 196,200 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of February (736 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (44) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals the number of ounces standing.
 
Thus the initial standings for gold for the February. contract month:
No of notices served so far (1962) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (736) minus the number of  notices served upon today (44) x 100 oz which equals 265,400 oz standing in this active delivery month of February ( 8.2550 tonnes)
 
we lost 25 contracts or an additional 2500 oz will not stand for delivery
We thus have 8.2550 tonnes of gold standing and 7.5589 tonnes of registered gold for sale, waiting to serve upon those standing.  The bankers are still doing their best in cash settling as there is not enough registered gold to satisfy those that are standing.
Total dealer inventor 243,791.34 or 7.5829
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =6,566,999.008 or 204.26 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 204.26 tonnes for a loss of 99 tonnes over that period. 
 
JPMorgan has only 21.99 tonnes of gold total (both dealer and customer)
end
 
 
And now for silver

FEBRUARY INITIAL standings/

feb 12/2016:

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory    2,113,588.813 ozBrinks,Scotia

CNT,Delaware

HSBC

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 2,400,949.966 oz,
(JPM,CNT,
HSBC,)
No of oz served today (contracts) 41 contracts 205,000 oz
No of oz to be served (notices) 6  contracts (30,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 161 contracts (805,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 8,584,838.8 oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account: 

total dealer deposit;nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil

 

we had 3 customer deposits:

i) Into JPM: 586,514.460 oz

ii) Into CNT:  1,208,620.08 oz

iii) Into HSBC: 605,815.466 oz

 

total customer deposits: 2,400,949.966 oz

We had 5 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of Brinks:  760,249.04 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 700,404.580 oz
iii) Out of CNT:  40,755.900 oz
iv) Out of Delaware; 18954.200
v) Out of HSBC  620,225.093 oz
 
 

total withdrawals from customer account 2,123,588.813    oz 

 we had 1 adjustment:

Out of Delaware:

4,971.21 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the February contract month is represented by 41 contracts for 205,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in February., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (161) x 5,000 oz  = 805,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of February (47) and the number of notices served upon today (41) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing (835,000 oz)
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the February. contract month:
161 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(47{ OI for front month of February ) -number of notices served upon today (41)x 5000 oz   equals  835,000 oz of silver standing for the February. contract month.
 
we gained 145,000 oz or 29 additional silver contracts that will  stand in this non active delivery month of February.
Total dealer silver:  28.909 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   157.865 million oz
Question: in a non active month why so much activity in the silver comex?
end
At 3:30 pm, we receive our COT report which gives position levels of our major players
Let us see what we can glean from it.
First the gold COT

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
201,754 103,326 45,747 121,357 226,280 368,858 375,353
Change from Prior Reporting Period
24,786 -820 -422 4,888 32,456 29,252 31,214
Traders
160 113 79 43 58 239 219
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
41,975 35,480 410,833  
2,396 434 31,648  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in gold added a whopping 24,786 contracts to their long side (and this was done before yesterday’s big advance)
Those large specs that have been short in gold covered 820 contracts from their short side.
Our commercials:
Those commercials that have been long in gold added 4888 contracts to their long side
Those commercials that have been short in gold added a whopping 32,456 contracts to their short side  (and this is before the big advance on Thursday)
Our small specs:
those small specs that have been long in gold added 2396 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in gold added a tiny 434 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions:
the criminal bankers supplied non backed paper to the specs in ever increasing numbers and the regulators just sit there..
And now for our silver COT

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
78,108 25,426 17,923 44,437 106,146
7,423 -6,671 314 -3,530 12,705
Traders
96 40 55 33 44
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 164,664 Long Short
24,196 15,169 140,468 149,495
2,523 382 6,730 4,207 6,348
non reportable positions Positions as of: 152 127
Tuesday, February 09, 2016   © Silv
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in silver added 3530 contracts to their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver covered 6671 contracts to their short side
Our commercials;
Those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 3530 contracts from their long side
Those commercials that have been short in silver added a gigantic 12,705 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 2523 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver added a tiny 382 contracts to their short side.
Conclusions:
same as gold..something has got to give.
end
The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:i) demand from paper gold shareholders ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

fEB 12/ a huge deposit of 11.98 tonnes/inventory rests at 716.01 tonnes.  With gold in severe backwardation in London, I really believe that the gold added was paper gold and not real pbhysical/

Feb 11/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 702.03 tonnes

Feb 10/ a withdrawal of 1.49 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 702.03 tonnes

Feb 9./a huge addition of 5.06 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 703.52 tonnes/ (no doubt that this addition is paper gold/not physical/

Feb 8/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 698.46 tonnes

FEB 5/another massive 4.84 tonnes added to the GLD/Inventory rests at 698.46 tonnes/this is a paper gold addition and this vehicle is nothing but a fraud. There is no metal behind it.

FEB 4/another massive 8.03 tonnes added to the GLD/Inventory rests at 693.62 tonnes.

in a little over a week we have had 29.43 tonnes added to the GLD.  Judging from the backwardation of gold in London, it would be impossible to bring that quantity into the GLD. No doubt that the entry is a “paper” gold deposit.

Feb 3.2016: a massive 4.16 tonnes deposit of gold at the GLD/Inventory rests at 685.59 tonnes..  In a little over a week, we have had 21.42 tonnes enter the GLD. Without a doubt that this entry is paper gold.  It would be impossible to find 21 tonnes of physical gold and load the GLD.

Feb 2.2016: no changes in inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 681.43 tonnes

Feb 1/a massive deposit of 12.20 tonnes of gold inventory/Inventory rests at 681.43

JAN 29/2016/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23 tonnes

jAN 28/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23

jan 27/another huge addition of 5.06 tonnes of gold to GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23 tonnes /most likely the addition is a paper deposit and not real physical,especially with gold in backwardation in both London and the comex.

Jan 26.no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 664.17 tonnes

 

Feb 12.2016:  inventory rests at 716.01 tonnes

 

Now the SLV:
FEB 12 no change in silver inventory/inventory rests this weekend at 308.380 million oz
feb 11/ a withdrawal of 619,000 oz/inventory rests at 308.380 million oz/
Feb 10/no change in inventory at the SLV/rests at 308.999 million oz/
Feb 9/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 308.999 million oz/
Feb 8/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 308.999 million oz
FEB 5/we had no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 308.999 million oz
FEB 4/we had another small withdrawal of 381,000 oz of silver./inventory rests at 308.999 million oz
Feb 3.2016: a small withdrawal of 130,000 oz and this is probably to pay fees
Inventory rests at 309.380 million oz
Feb 2.2016: no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 309.510 million oz/
Feb 1/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 309.510 million oz
JAN 29//we had another change in silver inventory/another withdrawal of 1.143 million oz of silver./inventory rests at 309.510 million oz
JAN 28/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 310.653 million oz
Jan 27.2017: no changes to inventory/rests at 310.653 million oz
Jan 26.2016: a huge withdrawal of 953,000 oz/silver inventory rests tonight at 310.653 million oz
Feb 12.2016: Inventory 308.380 million oz.
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.6%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.4%
cash .0%( feb 12.2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to  +1.88%!!!! NAV (feb 12.2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to- 0.15% to NAV feb 12/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +1.88%/Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -0.15%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

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