SD Friday Wrap: We saw some interesting developments this week, and things are super bullish right now, but it’s a little too hard to get excited. Here’s why…
First, a little British government sponsored and MK Ultra approved propaganda seems appropriate:
By now, if you are feeling like I am, you’re just numb to it all right now.
If you’re a buyer here, you’re not numb, you’re giddy, and it’s like you’re in McDonald’s because buyers are lovin’ it.
I’m truly happy for all the buyers out there right now for this awesome value play they are making, but please excuse me if I’m having trouble projecting my happiness.
I mean, usually the way it goes is like this – a silver miner has to crush a bunch of rock, then grind it, sift it, and separate it, then melt it and smelt it and cast it into a bar, either partially or fully refined, and then sell it, hopefully at a profit, but if it takes the miner sixteen bucks to do all of that, before the silver even gets to a private or public mint, but I can invest in a generic silver round, investment grade, purified and stamped into a finished product, all for less than the sixteen bucks it took for the miner to produce the ounce of silver, well, yeah, I’d buy every single last ounce.
But unlike the supply of fiat currency, and unlike the supply of paper contracts on the COMEX and LBMA, the fiat in my bank account is limited.
And so I can’t, and certainly not at the moment.
That said, if you are not a buyer at the moment, you’re probably just numb.
That’s how I feel.
The anger came and went months ago.
Can’t get angry about it anymore.
You just have to laugh at it really, because it makes no sense to maintain an elevated blood pressure.
It’s hard to keep the laughter up though, because that requires energy, and that was all burned-up in anger, so yeah, for now, it’s a feeling of just plain numbness.
How long will this numbness of being a gold & silver investor last?
Only the insiders know the answer to that, and we don’t know how much physical gold and physical silver the insiders have or are willing to give away at these prices.
So it’s tough to say.
If the events of this week are any indication, however, it seems that the American retail investor is finally starting to wake up. I mean, first the US Mint ran out of Silver Eagles. Then just today we learn that the mint has run out of Gold Buffalos. Premiums are starting to go up, and making the rounds on the different bullion dealers’ websites, I’m starting to see that individual products are starting to become “out of stock”.
But I think we won’t see any significant rally until November, for fundamental reasons, and nothing to do with the Trade Wars, the Chinese yuan, or the Chinese and Indian buying season.
You see, some experts will often say, “price is made at the margins”. If we think of the American retail investor as the ultimate marginal investor, because, you know, everybody in America is too sophisticated to even consider investing in a pet rock, then in November, we will have clear indication that we have peaked in my Peak Trump theory.
For now, it’s still going strong:
“Unprecedented Jobs Growth Streak Continues as Wages Rise” https://t.co/Mk0WSyjdOe
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 7, 2018
I am either preaching to the choir, or else people can’t understand or even see the Peak Trump theory because they’re wrapped up in it.
For a short reminder, there are many ways a person can get wrapped up into Peak Trump, such as those who think he is going to build the wall, those who think he’s going to make America great again, those who think he’s getting tough on crime, those who think he is going to lock her up, those who think he is going to bring the troops home.
That is just a few of the reasons.
There are more.
It will become glaringly obvious that we have peaked when November comes and goes, and there have been no high profile arrests. I’m talking Hillary, the Podestas, and people of that caliber. When November comes and goes and there are no arrests, those who have supported the President via the whole “locker her up” meme will begin to grow frustrated and see that nothing he promised to change is being changed. All that has changed is a booming economy, but we all know it’s still phony. If President Trump were a candidate today, he would say exactly that, because the economy is phony, it’s propped-up, and it’s rigged.
Now, we need to realized something: If for some reason there is this “Red Tsunami” come the November mid-term elections, that could delay the start of any meaningful rally until well into early next year. If, however, there is a “Blue Wave”, then that could turbocharge the rally sooner than later. You see, so far, the marginal US retail investor is not buying physical gold or physical silver, until only very recently, because he or she believes that the nation can be saved, because the marginal US retail investor is the same person who voted for Trump, and for one or more reasons, is contributing to Peak Trump.
But here’s the thing – America can’t be saved.
Not until, sadly, a very violent and very bloody Civil War takes it’s toll and the body count is tallied on both sides.
Hopefully the Constitution survives with the nation, but until those things happen, America can’t be great again.
The corruption is too systemic and the government just way too bloated.
It’s like the 850 pound person who can’t even move from the couch – you know, the person who can’t be saved, and when he finally dies from who knows what, he has to be hoisted out of the house with a crane, but only after they cut a hole through the roof.
Yeah, I used to call America the Titanic.
But the Titanic had class.
So for now, I’m going to work on a new analogy.
America is like the 850 pound lard who can’t even move from the couch.
And i’m not hating on America.
I love America and the Constitution even more (because states come and go, and the make-up of America changes, but the Constitution endures).
Heck – I was willing to lay down my life on some bombed-out, crappy road in Iraq, and as such, excuse me if I’m arrogant to think I’m qualified to critique America.
American cannot be made great again until great pain and suffering have come to pass.
Thinking America can before this great pain and suffering is called “wishful thinking”.
Some call it a “pipe dream”.
It’s a Jedi Mind Trick for the masses thinking that America can be made great again, and that the greatness is either back already or well on the way to being accomplished.
Here we are.
In September of 2018, gold and silver are literally absolute gifts right now because, remember, we are already starting to see premiums on some products rise – Silver Eagles in particular. Sure, the cartel could knock silver down in price somewhat from here, but supply would vanish even more so than it has now, and premiums would skyrocket.
What I’m saying is that if there was ever a sweet spot, it is right here, right now.
We know the set-up is bullish.
One look at the COT Reports tell us it is:
Specs are net shorter in gold while the commercials are net long:
And silver has the same bullish set-up:
But wait, there’s more –
Check out that gold to silver ratio:
The gold to silver ratio is big time bullish for silver.
On top of that, you have miners that are selling every ounce at a loss.
And on top of that, you have retail demand that is coming back.
See where this is going?
Things are totally uber-bullish right now, especially for silver.
Yet here we are, comfortably numb.
Some of us just numb.
I’ve been saying for months, now, however, that we have to get over the peak before we see any real gains. Sure, we could get back up to the “impossible to punch through” $1350 in gold and $17.50 in silver, but until we have clearly reached Peak Trump, there will be no substantial rally.
Granted, this is assuming there are no black swans.
So, if we are stair-stepping down in price, does that mean we get to at 13-handle next week?
There wasn’t a single day this week that looked promising:
Tuesday is what brought on the numbing effect, so if we do trade down to $13, I won’t be disappointed, and I’m sure nobody else will either.
Granted, once the bullish articles start coming out next week, I can see some people getting angry. And I get it. We’re all tired of hearing it.
Especially when your down yet another week in-a-row.
Make that down 12 out of the last 13 weeks:
Here we sit.
Fourteen stinkin’ bucks.
Gold isn’t doing any better.
Gold got smacked under $1200 yet again today and is now clinging to whole number support:
Recall that last week I didn’t have a good feeling about this week. The holiday shortened week (which now seems so long ago) and the BLS Jobs Report were just too much for the yellow metal to overcome.
So we see gold is down for the second week in a row:
Said differently, gold is now down for 8 of the last 9 weeks.
For the moment, gold is not at risk of putting in a new multi-year low, at least not the lows of December, 2015,
Palladium is finally starting to consolidate:
We should be seeing a pullback in palladium soon, and if gold and silver continue to be weak next week, we might see that pullback over the next several days.
Platinum did not put in fresh, new multi-year lows:
I’d kind of like to see it happen, however.
You see, I’d really like to just see this one, thrusting, royal flush, just to get the final investors who have been clinging on to just capitulate already.
Most of the people will lose most of the time, so the sooner we can get to the point where, in the physical market, there are more buyers than sellers, we’ll be good if your goal, like mine, is to see higher prices.
Crude oil is still dancing around the 50-day moving average:
I’m still maintaining my call for $80 crude oil to close out the year, however.
If that happens, yeah, just keep piling on the bullish fundamentals for gold & silver.
Another bullish fundamental for gold & silver is the crash in the price of copper:
With the drop on Tuesday and again today, we’re back to more than 20% down from the highs of just a few months ago.
The farce is still below 15:
Of course, if the Dow is going to hit 2666X.XX, the cartel will need peak complacency.
Speaking of the Dow:
That is one tight trading range over this week.
I am still also keeping my conspiracy theorist approved call of Dow 2666X.XX, although it is looking more and more like it won’t come on Monday. I mean, I don’t see a 550 point rise on Monday. That said, remember, in this tin foil hat theory, the unknown variables are the important ones. So, if we see 26669.27, that means the crash would be on September 27th, hence the 9.27.
Yield came up somewhat today:
And sooner or later yield will break.
The dollar is also up today:
Although the dollar is now officially range-bound as well.
I’m trying to think of something positive to end the week with.
But I’m drawing a blank.
Like I said, comfortably numb.
Well, for now, just numb.
So I’ll leave it at that.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.