SD Friday Wrap: Things look good to end the week, but we’re still vigilant and at the ready…
Things are looking bullish for gold on the daily chart:
The technicals look good (RSI & MACD), but more importantly, gold is above both its 50-day and its 200-day moving averages.
The 50-day moving average is arguably one of the most basic indicators around which can have a huge impact on both sentiment and investment/trading decisions.
On the weekly, however, we can see that gold has its work cut out for it:
We really need to break-out through the resistance of $1300 with authority.
The more we play around that psychological and technical level, the more painful it is going to be as far as sentiment goes. Wallow around that price level too long and, well, we see the trouble gold has had with $1300 for two years running.
On the positive side, how bout those nice rallies at the start of the year?
The good news is we are starting the next rally from a much higher level, so busting through $1300 could be impressive to say the least.
Let’s just not get our expectations too high:
The cartel can smell goldbug fear like Chuck Norris can smell a bleeding shark in the water.
Silver also looks bullish on the daily:
The big difference with silver is that the white metal desperately needs to get to, and then above, the 50-day and the 200-day moving averages.
Silver also has the same problems on the weekly:
But just like on the daily, silver is not in as good as shape as gold because we are starting the rally from basically the same spot that we started from at the end of last year.
Which is another reason for this:
I took some heat for saying the cartel was in a managed retreat in the short term, but the gold-to-silver ratio is certainly confirming the assumption.
Platinum is going to have some work to get above $920:
There is a saying that traders use and it goes like this: “What was support becomes resistance, and what was resistance becomes support”.
Right now that $920, level which previously was support, is now platinum’s short-term resistance.
Again, however, if there’s going to be a winter/new year rally in the metals, we could see platinum making an authoritative break-out to the upside as well.
Palladium put in a new high today:
Of course, palladium is not the favored child (gold), and it’s not the black sheep (silver) of the family, so the cartel generally just ignores the precious metal that most people don’t even know exists.
People don’t even know palladium is a thing.
Ask some people to name the precious metals. You might get one, two or three of the metals named, but palladium will not even be something on the tip of the tongue.
Then show them the word “palladium” and let them try to pronounce it.
In a geeky way, it sure does make for a fun two minutes, and you will have planted a precious metals seed.
Moving back to the weekly charts, it sure does look like the commodities in general have put in a bottom.
Crude has had a massive run over the last two years as shown on the weekly:
And copper is within spitting distance of putting in new highs:
That’s a rounded bottom. Sure, it’s ugly as heck, but it’s a bottom no less.
What do you get when you cross a rising crude price with a rising commodities and base metals prices in general?
Lots of it.
Especially in light of a weakening dollar:
Notice in the left side of the chart shows an 80-handle?
If the dollar is continuing its downtrend we could be down not just 100 basis points but many hundred basis points in a hurry.
The weakening dollar, in addition to rising commodities prices, act to raise the floor on gold & silver prices.
The yield on the 10-year note has burst through the 2.4% barrier:
But it has yet to break-out above 2.5%.
If the yield gets to moving in a hurry, we are going to see increased pressure on the economy as the price to service debt (interest rates) becomes more expensive.
There’s no fear around to take note of all these market changing dynamics and investor behavior:
But this question is critical: Are we closer to the beginning of indefinite complacency in the markets, or are we at the end of it?
Speaking of the end of it, the stock market is getting tired:
Yet so far it has been a painful trade to try and bet on a crash.
Speaking of crashes:
There’s some truth to that saying about trying to catch falling knives.
Pop quiz time: What did the three wise men give to Jesus Christ as gifts?
I’ll give you a hint: It wasn’t fiat or crypto.
And I’ll even spot you one : GOLD!
If you said frankincense and myrrh then you are spot on.
I’m ringing silver bells signaling your correct answer.
Have a Merry Christmas.
I hope you find yourself in good faith, family, friends, and fortune.
And, oh yea:
– Half Dollar