SD Midweek: The question is, did the cartel just deliver the knock-out blow today, or will gold & silver get back up yet again? Here’s an update…
This sure looks familiar:
Even as the dollar is lower from yesterday, the stock market is down, and the VIX is up 15% this morning. Unbelievable…
Silver, however, has not been staying down:
Every time there is a price smash, such as the most recent one at 3:02 a.m. EST Tuesday, the smashes are bought. It’s kind of hard to call them dips because a dip is natural. Dumping thousands of contract at an illiquid time is not natural.
We see that silver has some work to do to get above the moving averages on the daily:
The death cross is more pronounced now so price really needs to start moving in a hurry. The other technical indicators (MACD and RSI) are neutral so silver does indeed have room to run.
Gold has erased yesterday’s early morning smash as well and is also charging higher in the pre-market:
And on the daily we see that the yellow metal is about to make a run to the 50-day moving average:
While gold is in much better shape than silver this year, we really want to see the 50-day moving average turning up again. But just like silver, MACD and RSI are neutral right now giving gold room to run.
We won’t go down the path of open interest today since we have been anxiously waiting for the numbers to significantly drop.
Instead, suffice to say:
We see the GSR is still playing pinball and banging around the bumpers:
Though historically, this is a very high number. Looking back several hundred years up until 2012:
Not only do we see the historical norms, but we also see that that Fed is an utter anti-their-own-mandate of price stability. But then again. In Fedspeak, price stability is they are stable in their ability to manipulate and control all prices, not the prices themselves as the chart above speaks to the true intentions of the Fed.
Palladium, the star of the year, has now been down in price the last five days in a row:
While it is possible to keep falling for more days in a row (silver “fell” 8 days in a row in April of this year), it will most likely have an up day, but even with an up day, it looks like palladium is going to test the support of the 50-day moving average. The last time, this happened, palladium rode the line rather well.
Platinum is still struggling:
A close below $920 would be very bearish on an already bearish looking chart because that would put in a lower-low and give signals that price would break down even further.
Crude oil is now down $3 from last week:
Either way it is up significantly since the $42 lows back in June, so just in time for the holidays, it looks like everybody will be paying more for gas and diesel at the pumps.
Copper is now breaking-down:
Opening the day today below the 50-day moving average is bearish, although the last time that copper, like palladium, rode the price line and eventually broke-out.
The dollar should provide support for higher precious metals prices:
The head-n-shoulders pattern now looks completely lost. In fact, the dollar is now about to test support. Interestingly, one has to wonder if a weaker dollar is an intentional outcome of President Trump’s Asian Tour.
With the yield on the 10-year Treasury Note, it is still too early to tell:
The bond market has been in wait-and-see mode since September 27th. If all the talk of escalation of force up to and including thermo-nuclear war has anything to do with it, the yield should be dropping as buyers rush into the “safety” of U.S. government debt. But on the other hand, if the Fed is a seller, and the U.S. government is going deeper into debt (which is supposed for the former and a given for the latter), then yield should be rising. Then there is the whole December rate hike hoopla which in the grand scheme of things, is still a very minor hike if one is coming at all. That is to say, a Fed Funds Rate of 125 – 150 basis points is still very, very low by historical precedence.
The VIX is also still very, very low, but it is spiking off of the low level:
The spike is near vertical. “Fear” in the market place has been rising for the last seven days in a row. A spiking VIX is also supportive of higher gold and silver prices, which is one of the reasons the cartel (consisting of the Fed, the ESF and the bullion banks) is having such a hard time with their price smashes.
Finally, moving away from the stock market bubble theme and moving into the stock market crash them, here’s General Electric:
The last surviving sole Dow 12 company, not to mention a top 25 Department of Defense contractor, is now down nearly 50% since December 20th, 2016.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.