SD Outlook: The markets are getting very interesting, and we will know soon enough if the plan is to undermine President Trump by crashing them…
Thank goodness we don’t have to worry about major data releases this week. In fact, on the events calendar, it’s rather quiet.
There are, however, seven Fed speeches from Tuesday through Thursday:
With the ominous 666 drop in the Dow on Friday, we can be certain that the mainstream financial press will be all over what the Fed has to say.
Not only has the mainstream woken up to the fact that markets do not go up forever, the VIX is waking up again:
Here in the pre-market on Monday, the VIX has broken through 19.
Here’s what we don’t know:
Has the ESF or the Fed changed course?
On Friday, I asked if it’s possible that there is a political move to collapse the economy to undermine President Trump as all other efforts have failed?
We don’t know the next move of the global elite or the Deep State, but we do know they’re set on destroying the Presidency of Trump in any way they can.
Speaking of destruction, they can bring it where many think it is not possible:
Bitcoin fans take note: They have succeeded in their War on Gold ever since the COMEX opened in 1974.
But the most recent bout of severe price suppression since 2011 is slowly but surely coming to an end.
Until that happens, we can clearly see what the Deep State, the cartel, the global elite and corrupt Washington fear more than anything in the world:
Of which, they succeeded in smashing below $17 last Friday:
But silver didn’t just get clobbered. It got hammered far more than your regularly scheduled cartel smashing.
So much so that one has to look at the real possibility of a shift in market dynamics.
If the markets are coming down, Gold and silver will go down initially as well, or, better yet, they could simply not perform as they have not in the last six months (more on that later).
You see, traders will take profits from the precious metals, and use them to pay for margin debt balances, to cover their short positions, or simply improve their cash positions.
In 2008 when the markets came down, the metals bottomed a whole five months before the stock market did.
Look where silver has gone in six months:
It’s gone nowhere over the course of six months, and over the last five, it’s gone from over $18 to under $17.
This only supports my argument that if the broader stock market indices are coming down, silver has made a similar drop in price in advance of the stock market decline.
Gold has held up much better than silver over the last six months:
There’s actually two higher-lows and two higher-highs on that chart, which is bullish.
But it’s no stellar performance by any means. It’s more of a long, drawn out consolidation between $1280 and $1300.
On the daily, we can see that gold is currently consolidating around $1340:
If gold loses $1340, the next level of support is $1320. Let’s see if the yellow metal can hold at $1340 this week.
Palladium is clinging to its 50-day as support:
We can see that over more than the last year, palladium has continually tested the moving average support, and while the metal might be below the moving average, it’s not cause for alarm right now. Let’s see if palladium can get back above it this week.
Platinum is consolidating as well:
If platinum loses $1000, there is support at $985.
Copper is also riding its 50-day moving average:
Notice that the 50-day has been visited regularly by Dr Copper. As one of the most basic technical indicators around, the question is: Is it trading above or below the 50-day moving average?
Notice the theme in all of the commodities. They are either consolidating or riding their moving averages.
This is all in preparation for the next leg up.
Crude oil confirms this consolidation:
As there is a lag from the time crude is priced into the markets for a barrel of oil, and the time it shows up in prices for gas and diesel at the pumps, we all have time to get ready to adjust to rising prices.
The Dow and the VIX aren’t the only things making bold moves, as can be seen in the yield on the 10-year Note:
If during all of those years of QE, traders got in front of the Fed in anticipation of liquidity injections into the stock market, if traders are also getting in front of the Fed in their selling of bonds, and if China is no longer purchasing bonds but selling them, and if the U.S. has to sell a bunch more bonds to finance the deficit, the infrastructure spend, then where is the most likely trajectory of the interest rate on the 10-year?
The dollar looks like it may finally get the bounce everybody is looking for:
If the dollar bounces here, then it’s possible we get a pullback in interest rates, but overall, nothing has changed. Interest rates are going up and the dollar is going down.
Finally, here’s the cliff hanger and the attention-getter from last Friday:
Which brings us back to my main point.
We don’t have the quality data that the ESF and the Fed have. And they just as well make money manipulating the markets not just to the upside but also to the downside.
So is it possible we are getting a shift in the direction of the markets?
If so, what does this mean for gold & silver?
Just like the ESF and the Fed make money to the downside of the stock market, they also make money to the upside in precious metals.
Would they want precious metals to rise?
At a point, whether they want the metals to rise in price or not, the metals will rise in price, so its all the same that they capture fiat on the move.
You see, If the goal is to undermine President Trump, the U.S. economy, or to weaken the dollar, then yes, the cartel will want to capitalize on the rise in the prices of the precious metals because gold and silver are the ultimate hedges against uncertainty. Sooner or later, the cartel won’t be able to hold back the tsunami of demand that will rush into the safe haven assets.
Think back to all of those Tweets from President Trump about how awesome the economy is, about how awesome the stock market is, and about how he has made America great again.
Now think about this:
If they can’t get the President by accusing him of sexual harassment, if they can’t get him for falling off his rocker, and if they can’t get him for colluding with Russia, then where can they get him?
By negating all of the “good” he has done for America by bringing Main Street to its knees, economically and financially.
Is that the Deep State / global elite plan?
Time will tell.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.