HOT MESS: Gold & Silver To Shine As Economy, Markets, Govt & Politics Turn Into One Hot Mess

SD Midweek: Gold & silver undergo healthy pull-backs as the current state of mainstream affairs turns into one hot mess. Here’s an update…

Something that Candidate Trump said during his 2016 presidential campaign has stuck in my long-term memory.

Quite possibly what he said has stuck with me because he said it a couple of different times?


The reason why it stuck matters not.

Here is one of the times he said it, and I’ll let the Candidate say it himself:

In an nutshell, Candidate Trump is saying that you don’t tell your enemy what you are going to do.

And what do we have going on in 2019 with President Trump?

After all, it is obvious that all that ails the US federal government (currently the “shutdown” and the border wall theatrics) is caused by Trump’s political enemies:

That’s just one of the times he blamed the democrats too.

Yet here is the President talking about what he may do:

That Tweet is kind of telling when you connect prior dots.

So to answer my original question, “what do we have going on in 2019 with President Trump?”, the answer is that we have yet another example of Trump having his cake and eating it too, or we simply have the greatest show on earth.

I think we have the greatest show on earth.

Like some kind of reality TV show.

And it is easy to spot the inconsistencies and mistakes because it’s all scripted.


That was either confusing, deep, or jumbled.

Take your pick.

OK, “Hey Half Dollar, everybody knows the President is playing 4-D chess, and he’s saying what he is going to do in order to catch his political enemies focusing on the wrong thing, and then Trump can come in and surprise his enemies with something completely different and unexpected!”.

Sorry, that 4-D chess excuse ran out long ago.

Something about defecating or getting off of something?

Besides, there are reports coming out this morning that the President’s “most likely option” for building the wall is declaring a national emergency.

Not really 4-D chessy in my opinion.

The wall is evil.

Both sides want it.

But the theatrics must go on in order to make it appear as if the wall is some hotly contested issue.

People will be in for a rude awakening when the wall becomes the ultimate bait-n-switch, and instead of being used against illegal immigrants, the wall gets used against Americans.

Regardless, I don’t think the wall will get built.

Here’s the reason why I think that.

Furthermore – the wall theatrics is great “divide & conquer”.

And it helps with the ratings.

Moving on.

Here’s the farcical US stock market:

It seems like the timing was off on something, so the Plunge Protection Team stepped in to prop-up the stock market for whatever reason.

The technicals look horrible, however.

What we have here is called a “relief rally”, or called a “sell the rip” rally, or called a “dead cat bounce”, and I think in short-order the stock market will be heading lower again.

I don’t think we will be off to fresh new all-time highs.

We’ll see.

Of course, propping-up the stock market is helped when the VIX is working on its 10th down-day in a row:

In other words, reducing “fear” in the market is a great way to boost stock prices.

As such, there has been a move out of “safety” (bonds):

In the traditional, mainstream sense, moving out of “safety” means moving into “risk”, which is why we see the bond market selling off and interest rates rising.

On Monday I said the dollar had cracked:

I think the decline in the dollar is only beginning.

Of course, everybody is so convinced the dollar is going to strengthen from here, but I just don’t see it happening. The dollar is now going on its 5th year of strength (since roughly June, 2014), and it’s the kind of dollar strength that has been absolutely brutal for the 3rd world.

Another way of saying “3rd world” is “emerging markets”.

I think there will be relief coming this year for basically the rest of the world in general, and the emerging markets specifically, and that relief will come in the form of a weaker dollar.

Copper has its 50-day moving average in sight:

Aside from the crash in copper between June and September of last year, the price of copper has straddled the moving average all year long.

The head is complete on crude oil’s daily chart:

If that is indeed an inverse head-n-shoulders pattern developing, then we quite possibly could be back in the upper $70s by Spring.

Platinum is finding support at its 50-day:

I do think platinum will surprise to the upside, and look at how close that 200-day is from here!

Palladium surged to new all-time highs again:

While similar, I do not think palladium is a true taste of things to come for gold & silver.


Because palladium is not subjected to the sheer hatred that gold & silver are subjected to, so when the shortages in gold & silver are unable to be hidden any longer by the cartel, as in when the cartel can no longer play their price suppression games because actual physical metal is a thing, well, you know what they say.

In case you don’t know, they say you have either taken your seat aboard the train already, or you will simply miss the train.

The gold-to-silver ratio is consolidating around 80:

Nothing goes straight up or straight down, the gold-to-silver ratio included.

After this consolidation, I think the next big move in the ratio is lower, meaning if you’re buying your ounces of gold with ounces of silver, it takes less ounces of silver to buy one single once of gold.

Right now you would need around 80 ounces of silver to buy one single ounce of gold.

As recent as the last week of November, 2018, it took 87 ounces of silver to buy one single ounce of gold.

Gold is having a nice healthy pullback:

This will be the 3rd higher-low, en route to a 3rd higher-high.

In addition to that golden cross that is about to happen.


Silver is also having a nice consolidation here:

I had been expecting silver to consolidate around $15.80 to $15.85, and while silver has pulled back slightly, I really do think the downside is limited here.

Will silver finally breach $16 within the next 3 days?

I think so.


Well, the economy is one hot mess, and much of it is being oh-so conveniently masked by the government “shutdown” as shown in this update:

The markets are also a hot mess right now.

As is the current state of US politics.

And also that of geo-politics.

Stack accordingly…

– Half Dollar


About the Author

U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.

Paul’s free book Gold & Silver 2.0: Tales from the Crypto can be found in the usual places like Amazon, Apple iBooks & Google Play, or online at Paul’s Twitter is @Paul_Eberhart.