SD Midweek Update: The MSM says today is THE day of 2019. Gold & silver have been quietly preparing for this day…
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I totally blew the title on this one.
….As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 31, 2019
Here we go.
Today is the day of 2019.
Today is the day we begin a new chapter as the Fed reverses policy from being such tight wads to loosening up a bit.
It all happens with the ritualistic release of the July FOMC Statement at 2:00 p.m. EST, and then at roughly 2:30 p.m. EST, Powell will read his prepared remarks and take softball questions from mainstream financial reporters.
Overwhelmingly a 25 basis point cut, with a roughly 20% probability of a 50 basis point cut, but either way, zero probability of a hold or a hike, according to CME Group.
President Trump began the week expressing his desire for more than just a small rate cut:
….countries that know how to play the game against the U.S. That’s actually why the E.U. was formed….and for China, until now, the U.S. has been “easy pickens.” The Fed has made all of the wrong moves. A small rate cut is not enough, but we will win anyway!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2019
I’m not sure who the “we” is he’s referring to when he talks about the “winning” because I’m pretty sure that Average Deplorable does not appreciate his hard-earned savings losing out to inflation at an even faster rate.
But I digress.
So here we are.
The Fed will be making a manipulative change which will further suppress interest rates on a daily basis, and everybody’s just cool with it, with the more prominent people in the world of finance debating if the Fed did the right thing and what the Fed’s next move should be.
We should really be debating the most efficient way to Abolish the Fed.
The mainstream, the Fed and the government, in my opinion, are all going to be in for a rude awakening when all of the sudden there are millions of people ready to pull the plug on the evil, corrupt Fed.
“Why is everybody so mad?”, they’ll ask.
We’re not mad, we’re angry, and that was a question that should have been asked decades ago.
Regardless, when they ask that question, it will be way too late.
But let’s focus on the here-and-now, such as, what about the short-term and the rest of 2019?
Gold & silver, in my opinion, will begin making their next moves higher very shortly, possibly even today or this week as more and more people begin to understand the games the Fed and the government are recklessly playing with our most important tool of all – money.
Check out this sweet looking dead cat bounce in the gold-to-silver ratio:
Technically speaking, the GSR is a beautiful chart to look at for all of the Silver Bugs out there.
Silver’s price action has been in exactly the range I said it would be:
The market is expecting a 25 basis point cut, but if we get a 50 basis point cut, or if Powell comes out even more lavishly dovish than expected, silver could really get to moving here, with a break-out from the bull pennant and more work being done playing catch-up to gold.
Gold has also remained in the range I called on Monday:
I think we are about to see a pop to new multi-year highs, and if the charts matter, the technicals are no longer extremely overheated but supportive of a break-out.
Palladium is building a nice base above $1500:
I’ve been expecting that bounce off of whole number support again, but what I’m concerned about in the near-term is if palladium puts in a lower-low.
Platinum is showing a classic bull-pennant charting pattern:
If we keep creeping higher here, platinum could make a quick run to 52-week highs before a pullback to $900.
Crude oil is straddling its major moving averages:
Recall that last month (or was it this month?), several states increased their per gallon gasoline tax, so I do think the price of crude oil is going to begin rising very soon because these steady, incremental increases at the pump will do wonders for wreaking havoc on the psyche of Americans in general, and The Deplorables specifically, and when it comes to bringing on the pain at the pump?
Oh yeah, feel the burn Main Street.
That’s the Deep State’s Globalist plan.
Oh, just the plan to bring economic misery and financial ruin to the United States, timed to the 2020 US election.
Copper is sitting right on its 50-day moving average:
If the US dollar is topping, which I think the dollar is, then copper is bottoming, and I think the reversal is coming very soon, possibly even this very week.
The stock market has been kept in its holding pattern:
Here’s a question: Since everybody is so sure the stock market can only go higher when the Fed cuts rates, and since most of the people are wrong most of the time, doesn’t it stand to reason that we’re about to a “sell the news” event, and even if we don’t see a “sell the news” event today, that very soon, possibly even this week, the stock market reacts adversely to the assumed stock-market-bullish move by the Fed?
I think so.
Or is everybody right this time?
The VIX looks like it is starting to perk-up:
I think we are about to see some interesting swings in the Fear Gauge, especially if we get a “sell the news” move in the stock market.
If the Fed cuts only 25 basis points today, the Fed Funds Rate will still be inverted with the benchmark US Treasury:
At a very binary level, this continued inversion versus a steepening may be one factor leading to a 50 basis point cut today.
The US dollar looks melted-up to me:
We may see one final surge higher in the dollar index, but there’s really no way the renewal of ultra-loose (because it’s already loose, despite what we’re being told) monetary policy is bullish for the dollar.
What is the bottom line as we find ourselves on this beautiful last day of July, 2019?
The Fed is going to stick it to the savers today, and Trump will cheer the sticking.
The MSM will be all over this as something that’s needed for the economy.
Gold & silver investors know, however, that the Fed’s time is limited.
And with the policy of gold price suppression still in effect?
We can use this limited time to continue to prepare.
Because fiat US dollar savings will vaporize.
But only if they’re in the banking system.
If we turn dollars into gold & silver?
Before the masses “get it”?
We get to rebuild.
For the better.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.