SD Friday Wrap: Three days of pain, one sweet surge, and then came the hammer. What was the cartel so afraid of? Find out right here…
Earlier today I said I would be including a President Trump Tweet in this Friday Wrap, which would be a Tweet from him boasting about the economy.
Well, here ya go:
Wow! The U.S. added 250,000 Jobs in October – and this was despite the hurricanes. Unemployment at 3.7%. Wages UP! These are incredible numbers. Keep it going, Vote Republican!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 2, 2018
Wow is right!
That’s an impressive number of jobs. However, I have been saying all along that I don’t believe the government’s numbers, but don’t take ‘Ol Half Dollar’s word for it. Mainstream people who command mainstream respect are now saying the same sorts of things.
What is it that’s wrong with the number this month?
Here’s an example from one of those respected mainstreamers telling it like it is:
Markets&MSM thrilled by
BLS 250,000 jobs created. Zero attention to how number compiled. BLS number helped each month by “birth-death” ESTIMATE to account for unknown business shutdowns&startups. Guess what? Birth-death est this time was +246,000. Good NFP before midterms. Hmm…
— Harald Malmgren (@Halsrethink) November 2, 2018
246,000 out of 250,000 jobs were created in October because of the birth-death model.
What a fraud and a sham!
You see, the birth death model estimates how many businesses closed-down versus how many opened-up, and thus how many jobs were lost due to businesses closing versus how many jobs were created due to businesses opening.
Considering a “rounding error”, or a “downside revision” (conveniently after the mid-term elections of course), if it were not for the birth-death model, the “official” government
lies statistics would probably show job losses in the month of October.
What a farce these phony numbers have become, and how convenient that the last significant statistic before the mid-term elections is some super-duper, totally awesome jobs number.
Dare I call it, election meddling?
At risk of losing some of the Trump die-hards, or the Q-Anon loyalists, I don’t think something like, “well, they had to fudge the numbers so there would be a red wave next Tuesday” is sufficient cover. Let’s just call a spade a spade, and see it for what it is – a politically motivated sham.
Phony jobs, phony inflation, phony GDP, and phony everything economy and markets, and yet everybody thinks the economy is just booming.
What a farce!
Yesterday I posed a simple question on Twitter, and while not many people responded, the results are telling:
— SilverDoctors.com (@SilverDoctors) November 1, 2018
I’ll leave that at that.
Before anybody says I’m dodging the topic, I will go ahead and say it, and I’ll put it in bold, and I’ll make it really pop with italics too: I was wrong on my stock market crash call.
I’m starting to think the whole “The Deep State is out to get Trump” is one big charade, and if it is a charade, then that means President Trump is, well, nevermind.
I hope the Republicans literally kick butt next week in the elections because I’m officially calling November “put up or shut up” month.
And I’ll leave that at that.
If you are starting to get the impression this Friday Wrap is just bouncing all over the place, well, that is exactly what has happened to gold & silver this week, so it is kind of fitting.
Check out what I mean with silver’s daily chart:
That’s three days down and two days up.
Actually, that’s three days down, one day up, and a monkey-hammering.
Same with gold:
Three days down, one day up, and a monkey-hammering.
Here’s a closer look at the monkey-hammering:
It is especially painful for silver as the white metal was in the process of breaking out not once but twice today.
Looking at the weekly charts, however, we will see that things are actually looking pretty good for gold & silver right now.
Silver has been consolidating for four weeks in a row:
It’s hard to see on the chart, but trust me, silver is actually up for the third week in a row.
Many times traders talk about a “coiled spring”, and that analogy certainly applies on silver’s weekly chart. Additionally, check out silver’s technicals! We may not have gone anywhere in price over the last month, but we are seeing increasing volume on a weekly basis, the RSI has tons of room to run, and the MACD is bullish.
Gold’s weekly chart is equally promising:
That red-line is a major moving average.
That’s the 200-week moving average. Two weeks ago gold came up and tagged it, followed by two weeks of testing the moving average. I think that we can break-out above this major resistance point next week.
I was looking for a dip between $14.10 and $14.19 to buy some physical, but on Wednesday night, my gut told me to go ahead and make a purchase, so I did. I think I spent $186. Very, very humble purchase. I’m glad I did though after the pop on Thursday.
That pop is reflected in the gold to silver ratio:
That’s a decent little drop in one day, and for now, it looks like that purchase was perfectly timed. I hope everybody else was able to take advantage of that window of opportunity I wrote about in my Midweek Update?
OK, “Hey Half Dollar, you can’t do no stinkin’ analysis using your gut!”.
Fair enough, but after bottoming at $14.24, and then rising on Wednesday evening after hours on the Globex (which shows up on the “Thursday” time-frame on the chart below), I felt we weren’t going to get down into that sweet spot of the teens of the fourteens, so I went ahead and made the purchase.
So far it looks like my gut was right:
Looking at the 15-minute chart above shows why the cartel was heck-bent on applying the pressure to silver today. After a nice rise in price yesterday, and as silver was trying to break-out on two different occasions today, that would have just been too much momentum for the cartel to handle come Monday, so they brought out the hammer.
I think we may still get follow-through momentum in silver on Monday, however, especially if we get a drop in the stock market now that every mainstreamer thinks “happy days are here again” for the stock market.
Is palladium’s pull-back over?
Just look at the strength to finish out the week:
Of course, it helps by not having the iron sights always pointed at you because palladium is not one of the two metals specifically named in the US Constitution.
Platinum had a nice move this week:
Unlike gold, silver and palladium, which had a bad Monday through Wednesday, platinum hung in there early in the week, and then platinum surged into week’s end.
I have been writing a lot about platinum strength lately, and at risk of sounding like a broken record, this week we got further evidence that the bottom is in.
Even copper had a nice little price surge into the end of the week:
I have been getting concerned with copper’s short-term price action, and with this two-day surge, I’ll be watching copper with the popcorn in-hand next week.
The wildcard right now is crude oil.
This doesn’t look good at all:
The price of crude oil has fallen from its recent high at $76.90 to, call it $63, in the span of exactly one month. That’s a decrease of more than 18%.
Go ahead and break-out your tin foil hats, because ‘Ol Half Dollar has a theory about what is going on here –
I think the price of crude oil has been manipulated lower because of what is about to happen with the dollar.
You see, generally speaking, and especially over the last several years, the dollar and crude oil have moved the opposite of each other, and if the dollar is about to fall, which I think it is, yet if the price of crude oil is in the upper $70s at the time the dollar begins to fall, then imagine what would happen to the price of a barrel of oil, and happen soon?
We could have been over $100 a barrel on the next rally.
That said, if the dollar starts falling, and if crude oil is at, say, $60, then crude could rally back to $80 (which I think it will by the end of the year), and that price would be only marginally higher than the recent high from October 3rd.
I’m looking for dollar weakness, and that looks to be what the chart is signaling:
I have been talking about a double-top in the dollar for a while, and we are definitely there.
After breaching 97 to the upside on the dollar index, President Trump did not come out, either directly or indirectly, and talk down the dollar. I don’t think he will need to talk down the dollar either because I think the dollar will begin falling from here.
Yield on the 10-Year Note popped today:
Every time yield pops above 3.2%, the stock market starts puking, and guess where yield is right now?
The VIX has not settled-down either:
Yet everybody is acting as if the VIX was back at 10, and acting as if the stock market has nowhere to go but up.
I’m not so sure.
While I have been calling for an upside surprise in the metals, which so far I have been wrong on, with everybody thinking the stock market’s good times are back again, I think we could see a downside surprise in the stock market, especially on Monday, and it that is the case, we may just get that upside surprise in the metals next week.
Because no matter how you look at it, the stock market does not look good:
Comparing this “correction” with the “correction” from earlier this year in February, there is one glaring difference – the trend.
In February, there was never a bearish trend established, but with this most recent correction, there is definitely a bearish trend forming. If the stock market keeps falling, which I think it will, we already see three lower-highs on the chart, and further declines in the S&P 500 would show a third lower-low.
It would be hard for the stock market bulls to argue against a simple bearish trend like that.
So as we finish up the last week in October, and as we are now two days deep into November, what is the key take-away?
This weekend, the last weekend before “the most important mid-term elections, ever”, will be one of those weekends in which we will all want to remain vigilant and aware of our surroundings.
Situational awareness saves lives.
Here’s the thing: Last weekend we had the Pittsburgh shooting, which is already out of the news cycle, and one year ago we had the Mandalay Bay/Las Vegas shooting.
Hopefully this weekend will be uneventful.
But don’t be surprised if it’s not.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.