In what can only be described as a huge miss, here’s a look at the December Nonfarm Payrolls Report and the subsequent action in gold, silver and the dollar…
CNN is cheerleading the economy (which is weird because they are the “anti-trump” arm of the CIA/MSM propaganda outlet):
After hanging on for nearly a half an hour, gold & silver have been sufficiently pounded into submission:
All of this, and the markets still aren’t even officially open until 9:30 a.m. EST.
Looks like it’s going to be a wild ride today…
The December BLS Jobs Report (nonfarm payrolls) was just released.
In December, the total headline number of jobs increased 148,000 on the final month of 2017.
Gold and silver popped on the data release, and the dollar dropped:
We must keep in mind that this is the knee-jerk reaction to the data hitting the tape.
We must wait to see where things settle.
Looking at the jobs report, we can see it was a huge miss.
Here’s more from Zero Hedge:
Well, so much for that 200K+ whisper number for December payrolls, and it appears that Goldman’s warning that winter storms in the last month of the year would depress jobs was spot on after moments ago the BLS reported that December payrolls tumbled from an upward revised 252K in November (from 228K) to only 148K, a 3-sigma miss to expectations of 190K, and the lowest print since July.
The December payrolls number was below all but one sellside estimate:
There was also a big slowdown in private payrolls, which rose 146k vs prior 239k; and below the est. 193k, from 29 economists surveyed.
Of course it wasn’t just sellsides who were wrong: NFP has now printed below ADP for 11 months.
Not helping the huge December miss were prior month revisions, with the change in total payrolls for October revised down from +244,000 to +211,000, while and the change for November was revised up from +228,000 to +252,000. Net, revised gains in October and November combined were 9,000 less than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 204,000 over the last 3 months.
Away from the establishment survey, the change in household employment was 104k vs prior 71k.
Elsewhere, the Dec. unemployment rate came in as expected, at 4.1%, same as November, the lowest in 17 years, while U6 unemployment rose a fraction to 8.1% from 8.0%.
The labor force participation rate 62.7% vs prior 62.7%
In qualitative terms, average weekly hours of 34.5 came in as expected, but what was perhaps most important is that average hourly earnings of 0.3% M/M and 2.5% Y/Y also came in precisely as expected, suggesting no major surprises to the Fed’s dots timetable are imminent.
Keep in mind that this is still pre-market. We could see more volatile price action again at 9:30 a.m. when the markets officially open.
But so far, the knee-jerk is holding:
Silver in particular is faring rather well, but remember, it’s in no-man’s land between $17.25 and $17.50. We really want to see silver break-out above the resistance of $17.50.
Here’s highlights of the December Jobs Report straight from the Bureau of
Lies Labor Statistics:
In December, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent for the third consecutive month. The
number of unemployed persons, at 6.6 million, was essentially unchanged over the month.
Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons were down by
0.6 percentage point and 926,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for teenagers declined to 13.6
percent in December, offsetting an increase in November. In December, the unemployment
rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent),
Blacks (6.8 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little
or no change. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of new entrants decreased by 116,000 in December. New
entrants are unemployed persons who never previously worked. (See table A-11.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little
changed at 1.5 million in December and accounted for 22.9 percent of the unemployed.
Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed declined by 354,000. (See table A-12.)
The labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, was unchanged over the month and
over the year. The employment-population ratio was unchanged at 60.1 percent in December
but was up by 0.3 percentage point over the year. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as
involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.9 million in December but
was down by 639,000 over the year. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time
employment, were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they
were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
In December, 1.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, about
unchanged from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals
were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 474,000 discouraged workers in December, little
changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers
are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available
for them. The remaining 1.1 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in
December had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or family
responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
Establishment Survey Data
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 148,000 in December. Job gains occurred in health
care, construction, and manufacturing. In 2017, payroll employment growth totaled 2.1
million, compared with a gain of 2.2 million in 2016. (See table B-1.)
Employment in health care increased by 31,000 in December. Employment continued to trend
up in ambulatory health care services (+15,000) and hospitals (+12,000). Health care
added 300,000 jobs in 2017, compared with a gain of 379,000 jobs in 2016.
Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, with most of the increase among specialty
trade contractors (+24,000). In 2017, construction employment increased by 210,000,
compared with a gain of 155,000 in 2016.
In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, largely reflecting a gain in
durable goods industries (+21,000). Manufacturing added 196,000 jobs in 2017, following
little net change in 2016 (-16,000).
Employment in food services and drinking places changed little in December (+25,000).
Over the year, the industry added 249,000 jobs, about in line with an increase of
276,000 in 2016.
In December, employment changed little in professional and business services (+19,000).
In 2017, the industry added an average of 44,000 jobs per month, in line with its
average monthly gain in 2016.
Employment in retail trade was about unchanged in December (-20,000). Within the industry,
employment in general merchandise stores declined by 27,000 over the month. Retail trade
employment edged down in 2017 (-67,000), after increasing by 203,000 in 2016.
Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, transportation
and warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, changed little over
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at
34.5 hours in December. In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.8
hours, while overtime remained at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.8 hours. (See
tables B-2 and B-7.)
In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose
by 9 cents to $26.63. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 65 cents, or
2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory
employees increased by 7 cents to $22.30 in December. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for October was revised down from
+244,000 to +211,000, and the change for November was revised up from +228,000 to
+252,000. With these revisions, employment gains in October and November combined were
9,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports
received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and
from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged
204,000 over the last 3 months.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.