SD Outlook: Gold looks poised to take a swing at $1500 this week, and lagging silver presents an absolutely amazing opportunity…
I was looking for a gap-up in the silver price on Sunday.
It didn’t happened.
Interestingly, gold hit fresh, multi-year highs (intra-day) last week, and again this morning, gold has made fresh, multi-year highs!
Sitting under $16.50?
What has changed in the world that is leading to gold hitting multi-year highs this morning?
There is the usual trade war/currency war tension, but that’s not the only factor.
Fundamentally speaking, after the two horrific shootings that took place over the weekend, gold & silver now will begin to price-in a renewed, overly ambitious US Federal government looking to snatch-up even more of We the People’s Freedom & Liberty all the while becoming more intrusive, obstructive, controlling, and, quite frankly, more imposing of its will by means of brute force.
In other words, I said it is now obvious the “Fear Trade” is on with gold, and it’s about to start kicking into high gear.
Sitting under $16.50?
I already said that.
But it needed to be repeated.
I have been talking about the gold-to-silver ratio being a “once in a cycle opportunity”, but with everything that is happening in politics, geo-politics, the economy, and the markets right now, including the accelerating sick descent into madness by the dumbed-down, hyper-sensitive collective American psyche, silver at $16.50 in August of 2019 might just be the “opportunity of a lifetime”.
And I don’t mean that lightly.
The gold-to-silver ratio is perched just under 90:
This is on price weakness, too, in that gold is moving, but silver is yet to make its move, so for those taking advantage of the arbitrage, now is a great time to be buying silver.
Here’s a look at gold’s multi-year highs:
With President Trump to address the nation at 10:00 a.m. this morning about the gun violence, we could see gold make a run at $1500 as early as this morning.
When checking-out gold’s daily chart, we can see a nice, decisive break-out through $1450:
I think we’ll see a 15-handle very soon, and even though I don’t like to put price and time in the same forecast, we might just see that 15-handle this week!
Silver’s daily chart is about to be all sorts of bullish if we can break-out above $16.75:
In the big picture, these are all very minor moves, and I am actually looking for some explosiveness instead of these minor moves where we are constantly having to fight for $0.25 price gains here or $0.50 price gains there.
Palladium looks to be finding some support at $1400:
If we can find support here and get things turned around, then the trend-line over the past year will still be firmly in-tact, and that would mean a reversion to the mean with a likely overshoot, although that is not the type of move I’m looking for this week in palladium, so for now, I’m just looking to hold support at $1400.
Platinum also looks to be finding support:
I think platinum turns and runs higher very soon, in part because I think the commodities in general are heading higher as the dollar heads lower.
Which is another reason I’m not too concerned about copper’s daily chart:
Yeah, the bottom’s falling out, but unless the price of crude oil really starts tanking and we’re staring down the $20s again, then I don’t think copper continues to fall much further from here.
For the most part, crude oil has been range-bound in a sideways channel between $50 and $60:
We’re about to make a break one way or another, and the technicals are painted as if we were going to visit the low-end of the channel, with possibly an overshoot to the downside, but I’m not looking for sustained weakness in crude oil from here, and my call remains that, in my opinion, the Deep State Globalists will be looking to bring-on the pain at the pump for American consumers, but maybe not until the few remaining stragglers buy big SUV’s with no money down and no way to pay back the loan once the price of gasoline eats into the monthly payment.
The Heartbeat of America looks like it could have a heart attack:
The Russell 2000 has never bought into the whole phony PPT Post-Christmas Miracle, and since Deep State Globalists don’t really like America, well, let’s just say the Russell 2000 is starting to get a taste of what life has been like for silver.
Life for silver is about to be nothing like what it used to be like.
The VIX is starting the week above 20:
I think we could really be in for some spiking volatility, and even though the economic events calendar is pretty light this week, there are no shortages of Black Swans that could add to the emerging fear in the markets.
Additional fear in the markets should add to continued downward pressure on yields:
Continued downward pressure on yields is also fundamentally bullish for gold & silver due to the concept of “gold vs real interest rates”.
The US dollar is heading lower to start the week:
If the currency war is in-fact escalating, along with plunging yields and soaring gold, there is no doubt it will be a fun week to watch the US dollar.
What’s the bottom line as we find ourselves on this beautiful Monday in early August?
On Friday I said the “fear trade” was on, and today we can see it clearly is on.
Silver, however, has yet to catch a bid, so there is a great opportunity.
Additionally, since the dollar popped last week, the math is easy.
It doesn’t take many dollars to buy a whole lot of silver.
But I do not think this opportunity lasts long at all.
We could see silver begin its move today.
And if gold takes a crack at $1500?
The outlook for silver is bullish.
More so than in a long time.
Not this year.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.