SD Outlook: It’s going to be a busy week, and after weeks of pain in gold & silver, that’s a good thing. Here’s an update…
This is a very busy week for both data dumps and fundamental events.
Everybody will be looking at new home sales, the trade deficit (it’s never a surplus) and the second estimate to 4th quarter GDP:
Notice what happens at 10:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday.
It happens again on Thursday:
That’s new Fed Head Powell’s first Humphrey-Hawkins testimony before congress.
The point is that there are many potential landmines, policy errors, mis-communications and data dumps that the markets might not like.
And that’s just the regularly scheduled stuff and doesn’t take into account any economic or political news that’s not on the calendar.
In other words: We should finally see an interesting week.
The gold to silver ratio is right in the middle of where its been for the last several weeks now:
Which means we’re still primed and waiting on the launchpad.
Overnight silver tagged its 50-day moving average:
We’ll have to see how the cartel handles the moving average this week.
Over the last week and a half, it’s been smooth sailing for the cartel with China closed, but now, the entire world is in economic full stride.
Gold is starting to move back up as well:
And while the technicals never got to the ultra-bullish “oversold” status, the all-important 50-day has held, making the call of last Wednesday’s turn all the more correct.
Regardless, notice the pressure on gold & silver after their highs overnight:
We will see a return to the days where gold & silver suprise to the upside when we wake in the morning.
Today was not one of those days, but they are coming.
Palladium is pushing through its moving average:
Of course, palladium was hit the hardest on this correction, but the technicals are looking good.
Platinum is even coming around:
Of course, platinum is going to have some serious resistance to break-out through $1015 – $1020, so we would really like to see platinum surge higher, to say, $1025 to give the signal that the rally is on.
Copper is moving back up:
Dr Copper looks set to open decidedly above its 50-day moving average.
Crude is back above $63:
We’re not that far away from retesting the highs from January, and in addition to the normal rig count, build-up, and draw-down data points, crude oil is something that can be affected by geo-politics, and with all the tensions in the world as well as the now imminent launch of the petro-yuan, we could be back at those highs in a hurry.
The dollar looks to be rolling over:
No, that doesn’t look like the greenback is putting in a double-bottom. It looks like two retests of 90 (which failed).
That’s bearish for the dollar.
Interestingly, the VIX does look like it’s headed back down to 10:
Of course, when the governments working in conjunction with the central banks buy S&P futures, naked-short gold & silver to no tomorrow, and sell VIX, that’s exactly what we should expect.
When they decide to flip the switch and make money on the downside as they destroy the wealth of Americans who think they have wealth but really that wealth is just concentrated in fraudulent paper markets, we’ll see the VIX making new highs instead of making new record number of days below 10.
The problem is we don’t know when they are looking to flip the switch, nor for what reason.
But buying S&P futures it surely looks like somebody did:
The question is, was it the ESF, with their black budget money and dark pools, or was in the Fed with their printing presses and trading desks?
The question matters, because if for some reason the government and the Fed are no longer working together, something will give.
For now, with people like Mnuchin and Cohn surrounding President Trump, there’s no reason to believe the government and the Fed are at odds with each other.
So we’ll see.
Maybe the sticking point is how they are going to handle huge deficits in the face of rising interest rates:
That is to say, the tift for taft between what the government wants and what the Fed wants is being ironed out right now.
But that assumes they are in control.
And while they may be, for now.
Hubris could cause either side to lose control on the quick.
– Half Dollar