Elliott Wave Trader: Gold Break-Out To The Upside Appears Imminent

“We have now started a very sharp wave rally higher. This wave is going to subdivide into a…”

by Captain Ewave of CaptainEwave

Gold: 

 

Short Term Update:

Gold continued to move sideways in Friday’s day session and again in the overnight session, as we are currently trading at the 1301.00 level.

 

A break higher appears imminent, however, as the USDX continues to slip.

 

As you can see on the daily gold chart we continue to challenge the purple down trendline that connects the highs associated with wave $c$. A break and close above that line should see gold accelerate higher in its continuing wave $i$ of ^iii^ rally. We also have a major red uptrend line that we are defending.

 

We suspect that gold will move above our purple trendline soon, and the Fed meet on Wednesday could be the catalyst!   

 

We have now started a very sharp wave ^iii^ rally higher now. Wave ^iii^ is going to subdivide into a five wave impulsive sequence of which we have now working on wave $i$ of ^iii^.

 

If wave -iv- in the USDX is now complete at the 94.98 high, then we should expect gold to start to accelerate higher.

 

Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is :

 

^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1486.80.

 

Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.

 

Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!

 

 

Crude Oil: 

 

Short Term Update:

Crude was marginally lower in Friday’s day session. In the overnight we have moved lower to reach a low of 64.86.

 

On the intraday chart the rally from 64.22 to the current high of 66.19 looks like a 3 wave pattern, which is suggesting that we will be moving lower again, when this pattern ends, if it has not already done so at the 66.19 high. 

 

We are now falling in wave *c*. It looks like all of wave !i! of $i$ of *c*, is complete at the 65.80 low and also our wave !ii! corrective rally, at the 68.67 high, as shown on the daily crude oil chart. In this case we appear to have failed to reach our 50 to 61.8% retracement levels, before all of wave !ii! ended. If we are now falling in wave !iii!, then our first projection for its completion is:

 

!iii! = 1.618!i! = 57.18.

 

We have also broken below our lower red trendline, as shown on the Daily Crude Chart, which is a very bearish sign.

 

Trading Recommendation: Short crude.  

 

Active Positions: We are now short, with a call option as a stop. We are short Suncor, risking to 43.00!

 

 

GDX:

 

Short Term Update:

The GDX continues to really go nowhere.  If gold has now completed wave ^ii^, then it is unlikely that the GDX will be heading back to the 20.84 level again.  We did our drop back to the 22.00 level, which completes a 3 wave drop from the 23.30 high.

 

Our current counts for some long term charts as follows, although we could see some updates based on where the GDX is heading:

 

Kinross: We completed wave -ii- at 2.88 and we are now rallying in a subdividing wave -iii-. Within wave -iii-, we should move higher in wave ^iii^. The alternate is that wave -ii- is not complete at the 2.88 low and that Kinross will move back to that level before are of wave -ii- is complete.

 

Barrick: Wave (ii) ended at the 11.07 low, as shown on the Monthly Barrick Chart. We have now started to rally in what should be an explosive wave (iii) higher.  It has a projection of 39.47.

 

HUI: Wave ii ended at the 170.81 low, as shown on the Long Term HUI Chart. A subdividing wave iii higher is now underway with wave ii ending at the 168.45 low.

 

XAU: We completed wave -ii- of (iii) at the 75.65 low and we are now rallying in a subdividing wave (iii).

 

Trading Recommendation: Buy all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long term hold.

Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!

 

 

Free Offer For Web Readers:  Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you a free sample of all my daily wave counts work!

Thank-you!

Captain Ewave & Crew!

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.captainewave.com

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