Gold needs a sharp break higher. Here are the price levels to watch…
Precious Metals: Key Wave Counts Now
Email: [email protected]
Dec 18, 2019
A sharp break higher above our red downtrend line that is the shown on the daily chart is what we need to start a positive move for the bulls!
Wave *iv* is still underway, and it looks like our second wave $b$ ended at 1491.40.
The reason being is that the rally from 1446.20 to 1491.60 does not appear to be impulsive looking.
Unfortunately, if this updated corrective count is correct… then gold is now heading at least back to the 1446.00 low, in our second wave $c$, before all of wave *iv* ends.
It might also be possible that wave *iii* is extending and in this case, wave !i! of *iii* ended at 1566.20 and we are still falling in wave ^ii^, which has the following retracement levels:
50% = 1416.80;
61.8% = 1381.50.
In any case, a drop back to the 1446.00 level is still likely.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
Like gold, silver is also trying to break above its red downtrend line. That line is shown on the daily chart.
A sharp break and close above this line would be positive!
Within our extending wave .iii. rally, it looks like wave ^ii^ is still underway, although it could be complete at the 16.57 low.
We have updated our count for all of wave ^ii^ to now include a double 3 corrective pattern, which has satisfied its minimum requirements for its completion at the 16.57 low.
Our retracement levels for all of wave ^ii^ are:
50% = 17.01;
61.8% = 16.36.
Once wave ^ii^ is now complete we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave ^iii^, when we are sure that all of wave ^ii^ is complete.
Trading Recommendation: Long silver. Use a put as a stop.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops!
GDX & Gold Stocks:
It looks like wave (iv) or -iv- is now still underway.
Our wave $c$ ending diagonal triangle is extending, as shown on the chart.
We should be heading lower back to at least the wave ^iii^ of $c$ low of 25.98, before all of this pattern ends.
With our current gold count it is possible that wave (iii) in the GDX is still underway, as shown on the 60 Min GDX Chart.
In this case our target for the end of wave (iii) is:
(iii) = 2.618(i) = 36.42
Longer term, our first projection for the end of wave 3 is:
3 = 1.618(1) = 48.95!
Our current thinking on the HUI and XAU:
HUI: We completed wave (ii), at the 131.12 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), wave i ended at 180.22 and wave ii at 146.51 and we are now rallying in wave iii, which has the following projections:
iii = 1.618i = 225.92;
iii = 2.618i = 275.05.
XAU: We completed wave (ii) at the 60.59 low, and are now rallying in wave (iii). Within wave (iii), completed wave -i- at 80.76 and wave -ii- at 65.85 and are now rallying in wave -iii-, which has the following projections:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 98.49;
-iii- = 2.618-i- = 118.66.
Trading Recommendation: We continue to suggest buying all of the above gold stocks and indices, for a long-term hold.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
Free Offer For Website Readers: Please send me an Email to [email protected] and I’ll send you our updated wave counts for Newmont and Barrick, along with some exciting trade alerts!
Captain Ewave & Crew
Email: [email protected]
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