Major Geopolitical, Economic and Financial Events will occur beginning this November.
And certain of these will generate Mega-Moves in Key Sectors.
And Legendary Investor Julian Robertson has correctly identified one of them — The Great Bubble Event which will end in “a very bad way”.
Indeed, the Jaws of Death and Hindenberg Omen Technical Signals are forecasting these Events and their impact on the Markets.
These events will cause some Key Markets to spike much Higher and others Much Lower. In this Article, Deepcaster identifies Key likely events and forecasts likely consequences for Markets and the Economy.
Submitted by Deepcaster:
(Thus they will tank too … ending in – Ed.) “a very bad way.”
Consider the Events and Forecasts:
1) the Swiss Gold Vote to withhold Swiss Gold from Sale and accumulate more
Forecast: If the Swiss Referendum passes, which is likely but not certain, it could serve as the Catalyst for Gold to finally make its Great Launch Upward.
2) The November 4, U.S. Elections will help determine the prospects for effective government going forward.
Forecast: Whether or not the Republicans win the U.S. Senate, the prospects for Dysfunctional U.S. Leadership (and thus continued Economic Weakness and Market Volatility) will continue throughout the remainder of the failing Obama Presidency.
3) the Dramatic Effects of the Saudis pushing the Crude Oil Price down to $80/bbl and thus Crude Oil Price Prospects going forward.
Forecast: For a number of reasons, the Saudis will not be able to sustain this Price Suppression. There are a Number of Factors working to elevate and other to Depress Oil Prices going forward, so our Forecast is for higher Volatility going forward. (For a detailed analysis and Specific Price Forecasts see Deepcaster’s November Letter just posted.)
4) U.S. President Obama’s Pledge to Order an (probably Unconstitutional) Amnesty of up to 34 Million (Bids for printing up to 34 Million Green Cards have been solicited by the Obama Administration) Illegal Aliens now living in the U.S. after U.S. Elections, despite evidence that a number of those to be Amnestied carry Active Tuberculosis, Enterovirus, (which is now sickening and killing American Kids) Chagas and other Diseases, and/or are Gang Members or convicted Criminals (cf. carryingcapacity.org).
Forecast: Assuming Obama Orders an Unconstitutional Amnesty of 12 to 34 Million Illegals and gives Many of them Work Permits, it will further depress American Wages, and raise Unemployment of Americans thus diminishing Consumer Demand and intensifying pressure on Budgets via taxpayer-funded Health and Education Facilities. (Net Costs [after subtracting Taxes Immigrants pay] would be over $6 Trillion [Heritage Fdn – Rector et al]) Also, those Legal and Illegal Immigrants not working are likely to go on Welfare and Food Stamps, as over one-third already are (cf. cis.org). The Amnesty would also serve as an incentive for Millions more to come illegally. Important to note is that while a large Workforce may increase aggregate GDP, it almost always depresses per capita GDP especially if many added to the workforce are low skilled.
5) The Brazilian election
Forecast: a Roussef win has greatly strengthened the BRICS Coalition (given Brazil’s prominence in the BRICS and its Resource Base), and will ultimately serve to weaken the U.S. and European Economic Hegemony and the $US. The BRICS Nations have already established a “Development” Bank to compete with the Western Nations’ IMF and a Chinese or Chinese-BRICS World Reserve Currency is coming to replace the $US.
6) the reinstitution of publically visible QE by The Fed (which is likely already continuing via Covert QE via Belgium)
Forecast: We expect publically visible QE to be revived in the next few months and that would signal that Hyper Monetary Inflation has launched and is here to stay and would thus launch Hyper Price Inflation. The Equities Market Takedown of a couple weeks ago was a Harbinger of these coming developments. Deepcaster’s Forecasts thus facilitated three significant Profit Takings in early October (Note 2).
7) the further Economic weakening of the Eurozone, including the likely collapse of one or more Eurozone Peripheral countries’ Banks, and/or French bank/s, and/or even Economic collapse of certain of the aforementioned countries. Recent Eurozone Bank Stress Tests were a (Bad) Joke.
Forecast: A Major Bank or Country Collapse would Signal European Central Bank QE is not Working and the Eurozone is not recovering. This would Crash Eurozone and other Markets. A likely but not certain Prospect.
8) Russia (and with close cooperation of China) finally seriously retaliates against Ukraine and the rest of the West, by increasing Physical Gold purchases, selling U.S. Treasuries, and taking further $US weakening steps. This would further facilitate the Chinese Yuan’s progress toward becoming the World’s Reserve Currency.
Forecast: U.S. and Eurozone Sanctions will have Backfired, further hurting their Economies, and therefore Markets, because Russia has Resources (Gas, Gold and Oil, e.g.) and the cooperation of China.
9) US Debt balloons toward $18 Trillion and Downstream Unfunded Liabilities toward $125 Trillion
Forecast: As the $18 Trillion Mark is passed this will put another Nail in the Coffin of the U.S. Dollar as World Reserve Currency.
10) World Population continues to increase by 80 million per year moving through 8 and then 9 Billion.
We reiterate that while growing populations may increase aggregate GDP, they almost always reduce per capita GDP, thus impoverishing the citizenry. Key resource base components (e.g., topsoil and potable water) are limited and their expansion is severely constrained.
Forecast: Population Growth increases demand for resources (e.g., Energy, Food and Other Commodities) on a limited Resource Base and thus increases Resource Nationalism. Resource Nationalism (such as China’s exhibiting increasing Force in the South China Sea including claiming Oil and Gas Drilling Rights which Vietnam and Japan claim as theirs also) and Migrant Pressure on Borders of the U.S., Eurozone and the Developed World continue to increase, with eventual Disastrous results for Economic and Social Stability.
11) The Currency Wars continue with the Major Central Banks conducting Serial Devaluation of the Purchasing Power of their Currencies. This serves, of course, to enrich their Banker and Mega-Business Owners/Clients and impoverish their Middle Classes.
Forecast: This Process is Creating a Great Credit Bubble based on Borrowed Liquidity not Earned Liquidity – a very Dangerous Situation as former Deutsche Bank CEO, Kurt Richebacher (RIP), pointed out. Indeed, it is a set-up for a Weimar Republic Scenario.
Financial Guru, Bill Bonner, explains How and Why and Cui Bono (i.e., Who Benefits)
“…On Thursday, the Dow rose 221 points.
“This is good news for Janet Yellen. She must think she has made a clean getaway. She has fled the scene of the biggest financial heist in history with no cops in sight. …
“This grand larceny involved $3.6 trillion. Counterfeit – every dollar of it. Not a penny of it was ever honestly earned or earnestly saved… or dug out of the dirt and turned into coins.
“…But hardly a single soul understood what was going on….
“Next question: Who has the money? We don’t know that either. But the Fed fabricated $3.6 trillion over the last five years… and every penny ended up in someone’s hands. Follow the money. You will find out what happened….
“On our desk are two great books. One is David Stockman’s The Great Deformation. …
“Stockman was present at the creation, so to speak. … when the Republican Party ran off the rails and veered sharply toward deficits and activism.
“Stockman fought hard to stop it, battling Dick Cheney and the neocons, and he lost. …
“Politics won out over sound fiscal principles. “Deficits don’t matter,” said Cheney. Which means debt doesn’t matter. …
“But thenceforth, neither Republican nor Democratic administrations stood in the way of the great credit bubble.
“With an almost infinite amount of credit to work with, Wall Street quickly rose to the challenge. It peddled debt to everyone – governments, corporations and households.
“Americans took the bait….”
“The Biggest Financial Heist in History,” Bill Bonner, 10/31/2014
Of course, the foregoing are factored into Deepcaster’s weekly forecasts.
In sum, the ongoing Currency Wars are generating a “Race to the Bottom,” overall Slowing Major Economies, generally, and a still increasingly economically depressed Middle Class and high Unemployment in the U.S. and other developed Countries (Note 1). The foregoing will not support much Stronger Economic Growth and much Higher Equities Markets going forward.
These facts have already and will increasingly provide Opportunities for Wealth Protection and Profit going forward for those who are able to surmount Main Stream media spin and News Blackouts. Those who ignore them do so at their Financial Peril.
October 31, 2014
Note 1:*Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider
Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported October 22, 2014
1.70% / 9.38%
U.S. Unemployment reported October 3, 2014
5.9% / 23.1%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported September 26, 2014
2.59% / -1.66%
U.S. M3 reported October 21, 2014 (Month of September, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 4.25% (i.e., total M3 Now at $16.018 Trillion!)
Note 2:Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*
- 105% Profit on a leveraged ETN on the Volatility Index on October 15, 2014 after just 36 days (i.e., about 1090% Annualized)
- 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 10, 2014 after just 2 days (i.e., about 12,275% Annualized)
- 70% Profit on Russell 2000 Small Cap Sector Put on October 1, 2014 after just 8 days (i.e., about 3215% Annualized)
- 55% Profit on Double Short Euro Call on August 6, 2014 after just 106 days (i.e., about 200% Annualized)
- 65% Profit on Energy Storage & Management Company on July7 15, 2014 after just 342 days (i.e., about 70% Annualized)
- 95% Profit on Crude Oil Call on June 11, 2014 after just 73 days (i.e., about 470% Annualized)
- 75% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 27, 2014 after 21 days (i.e., about 1305% Annualized.)
- 30% Profit on Equity Index Call on May 13, 2014 after 34 days (i.e., about 320% Annualized)
- 75% Profit on Crude Oil Call on April 14, 2014 after 13 days (i.e., about 2000% Annualized)
- 60% Profit on Water Management Company on March 3, 2014 after 454 days (i.e., about 50% Annualized)
*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.