“Gold remained range bound between 1325.00 and 1313.00 in the overnight session. We continue to be a little…”
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March 13, 2018
Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, & GDX
Short Term Update:
Gold remained range bound between 1325.00 and 1313.00 in the overnight session.
We continue to be a little concerned about our current short term count because the drop from the 1342.00 level is very deep.
This might be suggesting a drop back to the 1303.00 level is in the cards, in which case wave ^ii^ may not be complete at the 1303.60 low.
The other option is that wave $i$ is subdividing as shown on the Daily Gold Chart.
We also a have a possible head and shoulder bottom on the Daily Gold Chart.
For now we are working on the assumption that all of wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1303.60 low and we have started a very sharp wave ^iii^ rally higher. Our first projection for the end completion of wave ^iii^ is:
^iii^ = 1.618^i^ = 1509.30.
We expect that wave ^iii^ will subdivide into a clear 5 wave impulsive sequence of which are now working on wave $i$ of ^iii^. Wave $i$ should end around the 1363.00 level, so we still expect further gains in the days ahead, before we should see a larger correction.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops.
Short Term Update:
In the overnight session the S&P Futures were up about 6 points and the market is still up modestly now.
It looks like wave .ii. has become more complex and as shown on the Daily S&P Chart is appears to be incomplete, but we now have now have satisfied the minimum requirements for a completed 3 wave rally in wave .ii., so we should expect it to end very soon.
Once wave .ii. ends which should be very soon, we should see the S&P drop sharply in wave .iii.. We will provide projections for the end of wave .iii., when we are sure that all of wave .ii. is complete.
Trading Recommendation: Short with a stop at the 2873.00 level.
Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!
Short Term Update:
The GDX was higher in yesterday’s trading session, but we expect this market to start to accelerate higher, if our current analysis of gold is correct, although like gold, we are getting a little concerned with our current short term count in this market also.
Wave ii should be complete at the 20.84 low, and our sharp wave iii rally is now underway. Our first projection for the end of wave iii is :iii = 1.618i = 32.38.
We also expect that wave iii will turn into a 5 wave impulsive sequence, of which wave -i- of (i) of iii ended at 23.15 and we are now falling in wave -ii-, which could be complete at the 21.67 low, as we have reached our 61.8% retracement level for all of wave -ii-. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:
50% = 22.00;
61.8% = 21.72.
Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-, to be the next big event in this market.
Barrick: Wave (ii) ended at the 11.07 low, as shown on the Monthly Barrick Chart. We should start to rally in an explosive wave (iii) very soon, which has a projection of 41.68.
HUI: Wave ii likely ended at the 170.81 low, as shown on the Long Term HUI Chart. Wave iii higher should now be underway.
Trading Recommendation: Buy Barrick Stock, for a long term hold.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
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Captain Ewave & Crew!
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