“For the time being we will assume that all of wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 low, but we are getting very skeptical about that assumption…”
Nov 21, 2017
Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, & GDX
Longer Term Update:
Silver also rallied early in yesterday’s day session reaching a high of 17.16, after which it turned lower to reach a low of 16.98. Silver continued lower in the overnight session reaching a low of 16.96, but it has since recovered to currently be trading at the 17.08 level, at the time that this Post as being written.
We have now updated our current count to suggest that wave .ii. is still underway, and we should now expect a drop back to at least the 16.35 low to complete all of this corrective wave.
Our current preferred count for all of wave .ii. is:
^a^ = 16.35;
^b^ rally is now;
^c^ drop back to the 16.35 low to complete all of wave .ii..
Like gold, if silver was really in a bull market we would not likely be trading this way. As you can see on the Daily Silver Chart, our bearish count is suggesting that it could be possible that wave -ii- is NOT complete at the 14.34 low and if that is the case then we are now dropping in another 3 wave corrective pattern that forms part of a very complex wave -ii-.
The bearish case would also be similar to gold. For the time being we will assume that all of wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 low, but we are getting very skeptical about that assumption.
Our initial projections for wave -iii- are, assuming wave -ii- ended at the 14.34 low:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 26.57;
-iii- = 2.618-i- = 34.13.
Active Positions: We are now flat!
Short Term Update:
Short Term Update:
The S&P was generally quiet in yesterday’s session, and in the overnight session the S&P Futures are up about 3 points, at the time that this Post was being written.
It appears that wave -v- is continuing to extend and we have updated our count accordingly.
This market is in danger of a very big collapse, as many indicators are very stretched…. and getting more stretched as this market moves higher.
We are now rallying in wave -v-, and we have now modified that internal wave structure to suggest that we are now working on the final leg higher, with the following detailed count:
*i* = 2454.77
*ii* = 2428.20
*iii* = 2597.02;
*iv* = 2557.45;
*v* is still underway, to complete -v-, (v), c and B.
This is a now scary market for the bulls from an EWaves analysis point of view.
Trading Recommendation: No new trade recommendation for today.
Active Positions: Very Short with calls and various levels as stops!
Short Term Update:
The GDX has been trading sideways for most of November and it now looks like it is getting ready to break to the downside. In yesterday’s trading session the GDX was higher.
Our first projection for the end of wave -iii- is:
-iii- = 1.618-i- = 19.88
With gold, silver and USDX having so many major options we will need to be flexible in our current count for this market, but for now we will stay with our current count.
We have not sold and do not plan to sell any of our gold stock holding, and in fact will add on any weakness.
Our alternate count is even more bearish suggesting that wave 2 is still NOT complete, and in that case we are heading back to the 18.58 low, as shown on the daily GDX Chart, with our red denoted count.
Our updated count for all of our complex wave ii is:
-a- = 21.14;
^a^ = 24.88;
^b^ = 20.89;
^c^ = 23.86;
^d^ = 21.80;
^e^ = 22.81, to complete all of our wave -b- triangle;;
-c- = 20.99, to complete all of wave (a) of ii;
-a- = 23.06;
-b- = 22.03;
-c- = 25.58, to complete all of wave (b);
-i- = 23.04;
-ii- = 23.99;
-iii- drop is now underway.
It is looking very likely that gold stocks are starting to tell us that gold is going to heading back to the 1124.00 level to complete a complex and lengthy wave -ii- correction.
Based on that we should expect the following form our current gold stocks/indices:
Kinross heading to at least 2.90;
Barrick heading to at least 13.81. A further drop to 12.59 appears likely here. Note the 61.8% retracement is 12.59!
Newmont heading to at least 30.00;
SSR heading to at least 10.00. Expect further losses here, until we get to at least 10.00.
HUI heading to at least 160.00,
XAU heading to at least 71.63, but possibly down to 62.00.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!
Free Trades Offer For Web Readers: Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free!
Captain Ewave & Crew!
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