“it could be with the collapse in the US Stock market that gold could have completed its wave ^ii^ correction…”
Feb 6, 2018
Elliott Wave Counts For Gold, SP500, & GDX
Short Term Update:
Gold is being supported by the steep fall in the US Stock Market, but fighting a rallying USDX!
We still expect lower bullion prices within our wave ^ii^ correction, as we are still quite a bit above our 50% retracement level, although we need to note that silver and the GDX had reached their respective 50% retracement levels, so it could be with the collapse in the US Stock market that gold could have completed its wave ^ii^ correction at the 1330.10 level.
Retracement levels are not part of EWave theory. We use them as guides to determine wave projections and retracements.
We are now working on the assumption that wave ^i^ in gold is complete at the 1365.40 high, and we are now falling in and incomplete wave ^ii^. We expect wave ^ii^ to last a number of weeks and retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave ^i^ rally. It is a bit too early to determine with corrective pattern gold is to develop into. Our wave ^ii^ retracement levels are:
50 % = 1301.90;
61.8% = 1286.90.
Upon completion of wave ^ii^ we expect a very sharp rally in wave ^iii^. We will provide projections for the end of wave ^ii^, when we are sure wave ^ii^ is complete.
Our first projection of the end of wave *iii* is:
Trading Recommendation: Short term traders should consider buying a couple of positions here, just in case wave ^ii^ is complete. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops.
Short Term Update:
The S&P continues to collapse!
In yesterday’s day session was down over 100 points at one time during the incredible action.
We clearly indicated that when this top did occur that it would be marked with just such an event.
In the overnight session the S&P Futures were down another 60 points, reaching 2530.00, but it has since recovered…. with the Dow Futures being down over 200 points.
We are now working on the assumption that all of wave V is complete at the 2872.87. AS you can see on the Daily S&P Chart we are now likely working on wave *iii* of .i. of -i-. Wave *iii* is likely nearing completion, so we should expect a wave *iv* corrective rally to begin soon.
This rally will be large due to the size of wave *iii* and it will fool most, as they think it is s time to buy, and that this correction is complete, which we adamantly assert that it will NOT be.
Upon completion of wave *iv* we expect another drop in wave *v*, that we think should reach the lower red trendline that is shown on the Daily S&P Chart.
Trading Recommendation: Stay short and have sold our calls and have a stop at the 2873.00 level.
Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!
Short Term Update:
The GDX was lower in yesterday’s day session reaching a low of 22.48, which is our 61.8% retracement level, so we are now looking for confirmation that all of wave -ii- is complete and that wave -iii- higher is underway.
We will provide our initial projections for the end of wave -iii-, when we are sure that all of wave -ii- is complete.
We expect wave -ii- to retrace between 50 to 61.8% of the entire wave -i- rally. Those retracement levels are:
50% = 22.88;
61.8% = 22.50.
Our first projection for the end of wave iii is:
iii = 1.618i = 32.81.
We expect the wave iii will consist of a clear 5 wave impulsive pattern, of which we are now working on wave (i) of that pattern.
Based on that we should expect the following from our current gold stocks/indices:
Kinross: Uncertain here. Nested bullish waves might be in play here.
Barrick: Major low at 13.28, and we should now be heading sharply higher.
Newmont: Higher with nested bullish waves in play here.
SSR: Wave 2 still looks to be underway. Wave 1 ended at 19.53, back in July, 2016.
HUI: Higher now. See Monthly Chart
XAU: Higher now. See Monthly Chart.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
Free Trades Offer For Web Readers: Send me an email to [email protected] and I’ll send you my next couple short term ewave trades for free!
Captain Ewave & Crew!
Email: [email protected]
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