SD Midweek Update: Gold & silver are in a good position here at the start of 2019. Could we even see gold take-out $1,300 by Friday? Here’s some insight…
Yesterday over New Year’s dinner, my family talked about what we want to accomplish in 2019.
I’m sure you know how the conversation goes.
Typically, those conversations go something like, “I will try to lose 10 pounds this year, and I will only drink one can of soda per day during the workweek”.
After my kids and I shared our aspirations for 2019, it was time for my wife to share. In typical fashion, she adds her own twist with the whole, “I’m not going to try to do anything, and I’m not going to talk about doing anything – I’m just going to show you by my actions“.
How right she is.
What does that have to do with gold & silver in 2019 you may be asking?
It has to do with action over aspirations. It is one thing to want to do something, it is another to actually do it.
Besides, how do we know what gold & silver are capable of when the cartel is constantly in the “markets” forcing downside price movements with brute force?
So I will refrain from making a call of say, $25 silver, $1,500 gold, and the subsequent 60 on the gold-to-silver ratio.
I just want gold & silver to show us.
And if we do get to see what gold & silver are capable of, meaning if gold & silver are able to have one single accomplishment this year, that means gold & silver finally break-free from the grip of the cartel.
Who knows what fair value for the metals would be at that point?
How could anybody make that call?
The answer to those questions is that in absence of a well defined bi-metallic gold & silver standard, nobody knows the actual, real-world, and manipulation-free market prices of gold & silver. Which is why there are sky-high price forecasts that are all over the board – everything from $5,000 gold, to $10,000 gold, to $80,000 gold, and beyond.
But instead of focusing on price, I want to focus on action.
If the action on display speaks louder than price, price won’t matter because 2019 would finally be the year that gold & silver break free!
We do know that all manipulations come to an end sooner or later.
And this year is just as good as any.
On Thanksgiving day, 2018, we posted this give-away.
People were quick to hate on it, which I don’t really get. The give-away required no effort other than registering as a user instead of commenting as a “guest” on our commenting platform, and then, as a registered user, stating your 2018 closing silver price.
It was ultra-simple and to the point:
Here’s the contest: Whoever can guess the closest closing spot price of silver to close out the year on December 31st, 2018, will win a brand new, shiny 2019 American Silver Eagle!
I have a last price on December 31, 2018 of $15.56:
In that post I had said this wasn’t the Price is Right, so whoever came the closest, either over or under in price, would be the winner.
And our winner is:
savetheperch registered, only ever making one single comment for the purposes of the give-away, and was the closest to the closing spot price of silver ($.31 away from $15.56).
To claim your prize savetheperch, email [email protected], and we will explain how we will authenticate your account, and we will also give an estimate on when we can expect to be shipping (when the 2019s become available to dealers) your prize.
Thanks everyone for participating.
Hopefully our friends over at SD Bullion will be flippin’ some more eagles our way to give away throughout the year.
The week ends with all business on Friday:
We may very well see that the end of this week is nothing like the beginning of it.
I have been talking about a topping process in the gold-to-silver ratio for some time:
If this rally is for real, which I think it is, then the ratio could plunge below 80 very soon.
Overnight and into this morning, silver has dipped below its 200-day moving average:
Which is fine by me.
Nothing goes straight up or straight down, and technically speaking, it is natural for the underlying to come back down are retest the moving average, especially if we haven’t decisively broken-out above it. I also like how silver’s 50-day moving average is finally starting to head higher.
Gold is knock, knock, knockin’ on $1300’s door:
There is a bunch of resistance at $1300, however.
Will we punch through $1300 by the end of the week?
We’re only talking about a 1.5% move over the next three days.
I think we can get through it.
Palladium has its own whole number resistance to contend with:
Palladium stole the show a couple of weeks back when arriving briefly at parity with gold.
Even platinum is contending with whole number resistance:
Platinum, which is a precious metal even rarer than gold, will be fun to watch once price really gets moving.
Overnight and into this morning, we see copper struggling:
That is a true double-bottom there, and the move is still playing out.
Crude oil sure looks like it is forming a bear wedge:
If the pattern plays out, then I’d be looking for lower oil prices in the short-term.
Of course, everybody will be talking about the stock market in 2019:
The chatter is even worse for the stock market than with gold & silver.
That is to say, we have people calling for the crash, and we also have people calling for new all-time highs.
I find myself in the camp that’s looking for the crash.
Which means I also see the VIX spiking higher:
While 2018 ended with volatility, we have yet to see the massive spikes.
The dollar is struggling to maintain above 96:
If the dollar drops at the start of the year, which I think it will, I don’t think we see a repeat of 2018.
Check out how yield on the 10-Year Note plunged below 2.7 on Monday:
I am still looking for lower yields on the 10-Year in the short-term.
Bottom line: Come Friday, it is all business for the markets.
People still on vacation may learn that the hard way.
– Half Dollar
About the Author
U.S. Army Iraq War Combat Veteran Paul “Half Dollar” Eberhart has an AS in Information Systems and Security from Western Technical College and a BA in Spanish from The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Paul dived into gold & silver in 2009 as a natural progression from the prepper community. He is self-studied in the field of economics, an active amateur trader, and a Silver Bug at heart.