Sentiment is turning bullish. Many think the current rally is the break-out everyone is waiting for, but here’s a final warning for bulls & bears alike…
Sentiment is a funny bedfellow. When the metals market was at the lows back in August, everyone and their mother were again certain that we were going to break below $1,000 in gold. Yet, that exact sentiment is what kept us from doing so, no different than what we saw at the end of 2015.
Currently, the sentiment has been turning bullish again, with many thinking the current rally is the break out everyone has been awaiting. As for me, I am not quite so certain.
I often use the GDX – the miners index- to track overall sentiment in the metals complex. When the GDX was back down in the 17-18 region, I was looking for an initial bottom. However, I only expected that bottom to generate a corrective rally back up towards the 20-21 region before the final lows would be struck. While I can always be wrong, allow me to present to you my goalposts and we can all determine how the market will be progressing in the coming weeks.
As I noted in my last update:
Ideal support now resides between 17.70 and 18.25 in the GDX, with resistance at 20-20.90. My primary expectation is that we will test resistance before we break support. Moreover, should resistance hold, it will point us down to 15.25-16.40 region as a potential long-term bottom in the GDX for this two-year long second wave retrace off the 2016 high.
Alternatively, should we see the GDX break out through the 20.90 level, with strong follow-through over 21.20, that will open the door for the GDX to follow those miners which have likely bottomed, and would signal that the bottom has been struck, and a rally towards the 26-29 region is in progress. It would also mean that we will only see a corrective retrace in the GDX while those miners that have not likely bottomed complete their downside structures to lower lows.
For now, I have no clear indications that the GDX has bottomed, so my primary perspective is looking for a lower low in the GDX. But, as I have discussed many times in the past, the GDX has been torn between its stronger components and its weaker ones. The question is which will rule the day for the GDX in the coming months, and, for now, I think the weaker ones will keep the GDX below resistance and point us to a lower low in the coming months. But, I would be pleased to be proven wrong on this one, and you know which levels to watch to know how this one will turn out.
This past week gave us the rally to the minimum target of 20 I was expecting in the GDX. But, the market may not yet be done.
The main take away for the coming week is that the 19.27 level should now be a trigger to you. As long as we hold over that level, we can still stretch up to the 21 region. Should that occur, then the 20 level becomes major support.
However, if the market breaks down impulsively below 19.27 from here, or below 20 from the 21 region, then we have our first indication that the market is heading down to lower levels in the coming months.
So, whether you are bullish or bearish in the near term, you must know when your expectations are going to be proven wrong.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.