Get Ready for a Fall 2014 World Commodity Bull Market Breakout!
Cycle analysis indicates the third and final 7-year tidal wave of the 21 year Grand Tsunami Gold Bull Market cycle began this past July 2014; Gold has been consolidating in the 7th year of sabbatical rest within a Symmetric Triangle and one final push lower is still possible before a breakout arrives this fall 2014 that lead to World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts!
There remains a very probable possibility of a commodity inflationary price spike and should this inflationary spike occur, Gold would easily achieve $2000 by year end.
If no inflationary spike arrives in 2014 (as cycle analysis favors it will occur) expect Gold to still close the year closer to $2000 than $1300.
The 7-year Gold cycle dictates a THIRD Gold Bull Market breakout comes this fall 2014 and runs for the next 7-years into the year 2020-2021! This THIRD and final Bull Market cycle will be nothing like the prior two 7-year cycles. Do not expect either of the 2 prior 7-year cycle tops to match the THIRD. In the end, the THIRD cycle will once again add up to 7-years and all 3 cycles will add up to one grand 21-year tsunami as Gold hits $10,000+!
Submitted by Bo Polny:
Dear Gold Friends,
There exists a secret Gold Cycle that every 7 years creates a world commodity Bull Market. Look to the ocean as undeniable proof that wave cycles’ existing as each wave cycle is followed by another. Gold too has wave cycles, just like the ocean. A wave can be one giant tsunami, a large tidal waves, medium sized swell and a small minor wave. Now let’s for the next few minutes apply these wave cycle to Gold and the May 14, 2014 New York Kitco Interview and Gold forecast (click here to view link) into the years 2020-2021. From the Interview and forecast, the 21-year cycle is a grand tsunami, the 7-year cycle is a large tidal wave, the medium sized swells are cycle Turn Points or Intermediate Tops and Bottoms within the 7-year cycle and lastly there exist minor multi-week cycles within the large 7-year tidal wave and medium sized swell cycles that can cause minor cycle variations.
In the Interview a 21-year Gold cycle is mentioned that consists of three 7 years Gold cycles, these three cycle combined make up the grand 21 year cycle or one giant tsunami.
The FIRST 7-year Gold tidal wave cycle began with $253 Gold in the year 2000. Six years later in May 2006 Gold’s first tidal wave top came in at $728.00 as Gold came only $31 short of tripling in price from the beginning low. After the May 2006 cycle top, Gold dropped into a June 2006 low at $561.50. Gold then rebounded off the $561.50 low and traded at the $650 range in the month of June 2006 and then exactly one year later, year 7, in June 2007 Gold once again was trading at the same $650 range before it dropped down into a cycle low of $642.80 that same month. In other words Gold took a one year sabbatical rest between June 2006 and June 2007 to complete its FIRST 7 year cycle that ended in June 2007 with a higher degree low at $642.80 relative to the June 2006 low at $561.50.
Following the higher degree June 2007 low at $642.80, as the SECOND Gold tidal wave was consolidating before breakout, Gold subsequently made a secondary higher degree low in the late summer of 2007 at $652.00 BEFORE the SECOND 7-year Gold Bull Market breakout in the fall of 2007; this point will be very important as it relates to the start of the THIRD and final 7-year tidal cycle to be discussed below.
As mentioned, the SECOND Gold 7-year tidal wave cycle began with a higher degree summer cycle low at $642.80 in July 2007 that was then followed by a second higher degree low in late summer 2007 at $652.00 and then next 7-year tidal wave Gold Bull Market cycle broke out in the fall of 2007. Four years later in September 2011 Gold’s second tidal wave top came in a $1923, this time Gold exactly tripled in price from the SECOND cycle low starting point of July 2007 at 642.80 and actually exceed it by $5.40 to be precise!
After the September 2011 cycle top, two years later (year 6 into the SECOND cycle) Gold dropped into a June 2013 low of $1179 and an email was sent out to all subscribers calling THE BOTTOM within 2 hours. Gold then rebounded off the low and traded at the $1275 range that month of June 2013 and then exactly one year later, year 7, this past June 2014 Gold once again was trading at the same $1275 range and then dropped down into a cycle low of $1240. Just like June 2006 to June 2007, once again Gold took a one year sabbatical rest between June 2013 and June 2014 to complete the SECOND 7 year cycle that once again ended with a higher degree low in June 2014 at $1240 relative to the June 2013 low at $1179.
If history continues replaying, and it will, then July 2014 started the consolidation phase of the THIRD and final 7-year tidal wave Gold Bull Market that is to end in the years 2020-2021. The historic Gold cycle dictates an end of summer 2014 low MUST remain ABOVE the June 2014 low at $1240.
On August 11, 2014 public post was made on SilverDoctors (click here for link) titled ‘A 3-Year Gold BEAR Market Ends & a 7-Year Gold BULL Market Begins’ calling August 1, 2014 a summer cycle low at $1281. That call was premature and YES the $1281 cycle low call BROKE on August 21, 2014 as Gold fell to a low of $1273. Did the $1281 break change anything? Absolutely not! Why? The 7-year historic tidal wave cycle indicates that the summer 2014 low MUST be a higher degree low relative to the June 2014 low at $1240, so Gold breaking $1281 and falling to $1273 changed absolutely NOTHING within the overall 7-year tidal wave cycle.
The $1281 break was nothing but a minor multi-week wave cycle inversion, the exactly same type of cycle inversion that caused the June 27, 2014 post on SilverDoctors (click here for link) titled ‘Gold Cycle Top June 27, Next a Summer Low Buy-of-a-Lifetime” calling a cycle top at $1334 to BREAK short term to the upside as the minor multi-week cycle inverted and continued higher into July 10, 2014 making a $1346 cycle top instead. Minor multi-week cycles inversion within the large 7-year tidal wave cycle cause only minor cycle variation; but do NOTHING to the overall larger 7-year tidal wave Bull Market cycle.
The 7-year Gold cycle dictates a THIRD Gold Bull Market breakout comes this fall 2014 and runs for the next 7-years into the year 2020-2021! This THIRD and final Bull Market cycle will be nothing like the prior two 7-year cycles and will have its own cycle top year just as the FIRST 7-year cycle top came in on the 6th year of the cycle and the SECOND 7-year cycle top came in on the 4th year of the cycle. In other words, do not expect either of the 2 prior 7-year cycle tops to match the THIRD. In the end, the THIRD cycle will once again add up to 7-years and all 3 cycles will add up to one grand 21-year tsunami as Gold hits $10,000+!
In the prior August 11, 2014 post and update on SilverDoctors referenced above, it was stated Silver’s current Cycle Analysis indicates a low is coming but not yet in. On that date, Silver traded at a high of $20.10 and today traded at a low of $19.25, down nearly $1.00. BEFORE the THIRD and final 7-year Bull Market cycle breaks out expect one final push down for Gold. This final push lower on Gold will NOT break the June 2014 low and will allow Silver to FINALLY complete its Bear Cycle bottom. Once complete, then and only then can all commodities commence TRUE Bull Market Breakouts this fall!
A 3-year Gold Chart
Gold is in the process of completing a Symmetrical Triangle that leads to a breakout this fall as the THIRD and Final 7-year Gold Bull Market get under way.
Symmetrical Triangle Defined
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend should exist. The trend should be at least a few months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
Four (4) Points:
At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
Breakout Time Frame:
The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern’s development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
Get Ready for a Fall 2014 World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts!
Cycle analysis indicated the next 7-year tidal wave Gold Bull Market cycle began this past July 2014; Gold has been consolidating in the 7th year of sabbatical rest within a Symmetric Triangle and one final push lower is still possible before a breakout arrives this fall 2014 that lead to World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts! There remains a very probable possibility of a commodity inflationary price spike and should this inflationary spike occur, Gold would easily achieve $2000 by year end. If no inflationary spike arrives in 2014 (as cycle analysis favors it will occur) expect Gold to still close the year closer to $2000 than $1300.
If you have any general questions, feel free to email me at [email protected].
Please visit www.Gold2020Forecast.com for more details.
Thank you and all the best,
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Legal & Disclaimer
The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Polny, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Polny’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities and/or commodities. Mr. Polny is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Polny recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although an experienced analyst, Mr. Polny is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Polny’s opinions on the markets, stocks and commodities are his own and can not be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities and/or commodities.