Auto Sales Collapse in January!

fiscal cliffJanuary auto sales released on Monday showed a precipitous decline in auto sales in January compared to January 2013.  Of course the first words out of every analysts’ mouth was “bad weather.”
The distortion and perversion of the truth has reached new levels.  What’s going on right now is right out of Animal Farm.


2014 Silver Maples With Security Mint Mark 

By PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler, Truth in Gold:

 

The distortion and perversion of the truth has reached new levels.  What’s going on right now is right out of Animal Farm.  – The Golden Truth

 Winston worked in the RECORDS DEPARTMENT (a single branch of the Ministry of Truth) editing and writing for The Times. He dictated into a machine called a speakwrite. Winston would receive articles or news-items which for one reason or another it was thought necessary to alter, or, in Newspeak, rectify. If, for example, the Ministry of Plenty forecast a surplus, and in reality the result was grossly less, Winston’s job was to change previous versions so the old version would agree with the new one.  “1984,”  George Orwell

Blame it on the weather!  January auto sales released on Monday showed a precipitous decline in auto sales in January compared to January 2013.  Of course the first words out of every analysts’ mouth was “bad weather.”

As it turns out; in order to seek the facts, I did some research on weather patterns across the country in January.  Looking at just the facts, the average daily temperature in January for the top 10 cities by population was about same as the historical average.  In fact, on the west coast (i.e. San Diego and L.A.) the weather was warmer than average.

Furthermore, just because there’s a couple days of snow and cold weather in the northeast, that would not prevent someone who wants to buy a new car from waiting until a warmer day to shop (“aw gee, it’s cold today and the roads are snowy so I’ll wait til next month to buy a new car…”).

If you look at the year over drop in car sales for December 2013/2012 and compare it to the year over drop for January 2014/2013, the decline was roughly 7x more for January than December.  December had bad its fair share of bad weather days as well.  Even if the weather affected sales a little, the huge relative decline for January reinforces my theme that the economy hit a wall in November and 2014 will see economic contraction.

You can read my brief article on car sales here:  January Auto Sales: Another Big Drop  Please note that January is one of the lowest seasonal months for car sales, but that’s why the January 2014/2013 comparison is so significant – it washes away seasonality.

Just for the record, expect an insanely absurd jobs report on Friday.  It seems that the Government’s attempt to cover up the truth varies inversely with the degree to which the U.S. economy is collapsing.