“…we might have expected the rally to be steeper and livelier. Instead, it has died just shy of…”
Rick’s Picks will always be a good place to visit if you’re a gold bull in need of a reality check. I promise to call ’em as I see ’em, relying solely on charts, rather than on something as pathetic and sentimental as “feelings,” to guide my forecasts. Right now, those charts are saying one thing very clearly: gold sucks. This pains me as much as it does you, since, like many subscribers, I’ve got ingots, Maple Leafs and Krugerrands socked away for that rainy day we all know is coming. And it truly vexes me that one can buy a St. Gaudens double eagle — one of the most beautiful coins ever minted — for close to melt value. (Hey, swap ’em for bitcoin, you jackasses!)
Rally ‘Too Subdued’
Which brings me to today’s chart, a picture of Comex Gold that goes back to late 2016. Notice that the current rally off an 1167.10 low recorded two weeks ago has been rather subdued. Given that the prospect of a drop beneath the December 2016 low at 1162.00 should have scared at least some bulls out of their positions, we might have expected the rally to be steeper and livelier. Instead, it has died just shy of the green line where a “counterintuitive” buy signal would have been tripped (see inset). The so-far failure of the CI trade to trigger is a bearish sign. It suggests that another test is coming of the 1162.00 low, and that if support there fails, gold will be headed down toward 1000 to test a more important low that occurred at 1046 in the final days of 2015. That’s the technical picture, and there is no way to sugar-coat it. If you don’t subscribe to Rick’s Picks, just click here for a free two-week trial. It will give you instant access not only to the chat room, but to actionable ‘touts’, intraday alerts and impromptu ‘requests’ sessions online.