empty-vaultAlmost a year ago, the German government put in a formal request to reclaim (repatriate) a portion of their gold reserves held outside of Germany. Reports on the progress of this initiative have raised quite a few questions.
Now news comes that, in the first year of the plan, Germany only received back 37.5 metric tonnes of their gold. This is only 5% of the total repatriation amount. At this rate, it will take twenty years, not eight, to reclaim the gold!
2014 is going to a consequential year in gold and silver. This German gold story only adds intrigue and fuel for the fire.


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By Turd Ferguson, TFMetals Report:

Here’s the first report, from ZeroHedge and released on Christmas Eve: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-24/year-later-bundesbank-has-repatriated-only-37-tons-gold-700-total

At the time the plan was announced, many in the gold community made note that it would take over 8 years for Germany to reclaim this portion of its foreign reserves. Seven hundred metric tonnes…though a lot of gold…should simply be sitting in New York, London and Paris vaults, collecting dust. Why not just brush it off, certify that the bars numbers match up and then ship that shiny stuff back to Germany. No big deal and certainly not something that should take eight years to accomplish.

Now news comes that, in the first year of the plan, Germany only received back 37.5 metric tonnes of their gold. This is only 5% of the total repatriation amount. At this rate, it will take twenty years, not eight, to reclaim the gold.

Further muddying the waters are reports that this gold came exclusively from the vaults of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY). If that was the case, then the gold returned should have been a simple transfer. The Germans deposited the gold there decades ago. It is being shipped back to them now. Problem is, it wasn’t a simple transfer!

Apparently, The Bundesbank took the unusual step of having “its” bars assayed, melted and recast into London Good Delivery form before taking delivery. Now, why would they do that? And why would they do this in the U.S. and not in Frankfurt? These bars should simply be the same bars that were deposited decades ago. Do they not trust the FRBNY? Are these not the same bars?

Perhaps, instead, there’s another explanation. This idea was first spelled out on the GATA site earlier this week and I urge you to read through this post now: http://www.gata.org/node/13458

In summary, it goes like this:

  • The original German gold held in the U.S. is gone. Leased, sold and rehypothecated many times over.
  • Germany now wants its gold back. The U.S. balks and promises to only return roughly 40 mts/year for eight years. (By the way, why didn’t France return any gold in 2013? Germany’s looking for 374 metric tonnes from them and, in 2013, it got zilch, zero and nada.)
  • Pressed to come up with gold to ship back to Germany, the U.S. scours it’s vaults.
  • The U.S. takes some of it’s 1930s-confiscated “coin melt” gold, assayed at 90% purity, and recasts it into 99.5% purity London bars and ships them off to Frankfurt.
  • The Bundesbank books in these new bars, apparently date-stamped “2013″, as a “return of German gold” and now awaits the other 95% of their “order”.

Hmmm. OK, then. First year done. Whew! Now, from which vault will the U.S. find gold for Germany in 2014? And how about the reserves allegedly held in Paris? When will those be returned? You’d think they could just drive that over in a convoy of guarded trucks. From Paris to Frankfurt is only about a 500km drive. You could do that in under a day. What’s the big deal?

(Could it be that there is no German gold in Paris? Coincidentally, it’s almost the exact same distance from Paris to Basel, Switzerland. Hmmmm. Maybe the Germans should look for their gold there, instead??)

Anyway, this entire farce just keeps getting sillier by the day. Today, there are reports from Germany that indicate the Bundesbank is quickly backtracking and attempting to retract the “U.S. remelting of bars” story. (http://www.gata.org/node/13472) OK, right. Whatever you say. And don’t forget about this fun chart, created for us last year by our pal, Ned Naylor-Leyland:

2014 is going to a consequential year in gold and silver. This German gold story only adds intrigue and fuel for the fire.

TF

By subscribing to Turd Ferguson’s premium service, “Turd’s Vault,” you’ll get extra, value-added content that you won’t find anywhere else on the Internet. Members receive Turd’s insightful chart analysis, frequent podcasts covering market news, weekly podcasts with special guests, plus other helpful information, all available on a dashboard only available to gold members.

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  1. The Fed can never slow or stop QE…the Fed has created massive Treasury supply for which there will never be organic demand absent a mega departure from risk into bond “safety”…

    The fact that “foreign” holdings of US Treasury bonds are a record $5.65 T of the $12 T public outstanding debt (vs. $2 T Fed holdings)  and foreigners are not selling off their holdings tells you they have been reassured QE is forever…otherwise they would soon be facing large losses as yields rose and bond prices collapsed…in other words, on a QE taper of Fed’s buying, foreigners would front run the exit…something the Fed could not mop up w/out a much increased QE.

    Hard to believe people (everybody) don’t understand the Fed now *must* print forever moar…no debate, no QE tapers or QE wind downs…no exit from hyper-monetization.  End.  Stop.  Period.
    Gold, silver, commodity prices falling in this situation are ludicrous…as ludicrous as if I told you there would be fewer and fewer dollars chasing ever growing # of assets and this would cause the price to risewe have an inverse where ever more infinite dollars are chasing fixed and growing scarcer resources causing the price to…fall. 

    That this would be accepted and peddled by economists, professors, etc. to the people show it’s clearly time for me to check into the Loony bin.  How deep into the propaganda state are we to observe something and accept it is exactly the opposite as our observation.
     

    • No idea if China has US over the barrel or we they…or we’re co-dependent…jus saying China are #1 in taking on our Treasury debt and they are #1 in getting gold. Seems there may be a correlation btwn those two things Germany may want to take note of since they “only” own $60 B of Treasury debt and have only increased by $10 B since ’08 while Chinese have increased by $800 B.

  2. There is no transparency in the gold sector (and silver too). Aside from the obvious swap and lease national security secrets, the ETF’s are a pitiful joke used by TPTB (via JPM, HSBC, GS, MS, DB, etc…) to distort, deceive and manipulate the metals. Same on the futures, and the fraud ridden COMEX. All kinds of illegal, immoral and corrupt activity crushing any true price discovery. LBMA has turned out to be a pile of shit too. This is not an opinion. This is 100% factual for those willing to do some research. From ZH yesterday confirming this,

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-08/proof-golds-latest-slam-was-not-fat-goldfinger

     
    Anyone disputing this please feel free to step up and provide any solid proof that the the rest of us are wrong in confronting the anti PM propaganda so prevalent in the MSM (and here too). Quite frankly, I think most here are tired of reading those old, tired, worn out negative bullshit stories far more than listening to any “guru” posted here (like TF’s solid post above on the German gold situation).

    I continually ask myself why anyone would be posting and reading here at Doc’s if they weren’t a stacker. It makes no sense at all, so I have to assume there are people here who are not stacker’s and don’t believe in holding PM’s. Time to scroll on by and quit wasting my time and effort on those who wish us ill will and harm. Good luck to all of you going forward.

    Peace and Aloha,
    BoP

    • “I continually ask myself why anyone would be posting and reading here at Doc’s if they weren’t a stacker.” and

      Time to scroll on by and quit wasting my time and effort on those who wish us ill will and harm.”
      So true!
      Good luck to you too BoP

    • @Bay of Pigs – I have to agree.
      Why come here if you are not a stacker. That doesn’t mean we all have exactly the same outlook. Some like gold, some like silver, some like gold and silver, platinum, copper etc. But you wouldn’t be interested if you weren’t a stacker in some way. And you wouldn’t be anti PMs.
      As for Germany not getting any gold from France, that’s because they haven’t got it out of Mali yet!
      JC

    • @Bay of Pigs I have noticed that a lot lately, that their are lots more Traders on here than usual which is strange for a Stacker’s site and more importantly why we are Stacking. One indeed has to wonder why they are here. Keep Stacking

    • one doesn’t have to be exclusively one or the other.  I consider myself both, though have modified storage habits after reading the robbery story i posted in forum.

  3. They seem to labor under the misconception that monkey hammers can whitewash the destruction of the FRN.  So far they have succeeded in helping easterners carry off America’s wealth at yard sale prices.  (Silver being the red-headed step-child here) They feel they are so intellectually superior but failed to note that ‘Average Joe’ never even heard of gold or silver until they drew attention to them.  The first bad move (that caught my young attention) was abandoning silver coinage just to freely print paper dollars to waste on wars, welfare and government nest-feathering.  Power was all they wanted, no matter the cost to the people.  So they printed some up.
    A nominal, more natural looking rise in PMs would have kept the game going indefinitely.

  4. I would love to be wrong, but the more I read and think about it, I more expect USA to have MORE gold than claimed rather than the opposite. That they’re reluctant to give it back…who wouldn’t be?
    Much more likely that silver is running out than gold. What better way to sucker people into paying market pricing for an abundantly stock piled metal while the one that actually matters gets a few years added before it runs out?
    Too much silver being extracted fro stock piles, so make gold look more rare. Discount it to get even more people to spend their cash on it.
    Large corps and elite are more easily persuaded to lay off from silver. But the working man…tell him he can’t have it, and he’ll go crazy hoarder. Plenty of gold, no real use for it, so let that steal the shortage show.
    BTW Platinum and Palladium are way more rare. For some reason, no-one cornering the market on the cheap. A couple billion gets you to take over this vital metal.

  5. The issue with Germany not getting its gold is a nice clue for how hard it is to find gold in size.  At the same time I am confused.  How is it that China can source and buy so much gold?  Of course, I don’t know how much gold China is buying exactly.  It depends on who you are talking to or listening to.  According to Dr Jim Willie, China is buying a thousand tons per month.  I find that claim puzzling.  If this is true there must be a lot of gold available to be purchased.  At the same time, I also read that China is buying at least 100 tons per month.  That seems like a more beleiveable number but if gold is in shortage right now, how in the hell is China sourcing this much?  Could it be that China is not as friendly as Germany is to the US?  Maybe they are demanding the phyzz.  Making threats.  Telling the West that if they don’t receive this gold that they will do something that might not be so nice, like start selling those damn worthless Tbonds that they have been hoarding.  Maybe China has a priority VIP status?  They get to skip to the front of the line to buy gold that most likely the West doesn’t even want to sell.  Is our Government pressuring the bullion banks to sell gold that they might like to keep if they only could?  I believe that.  And, I do not believe that our government has a single oz of gold in Ft Knox or if they did you can bet it would be for sale to China.  Or else.  I believe this will soon come to a head.  The sooner the better in my mind.   

    • Perhaps there is some correlation w/ the amount of US Treasury debt held by a country and it’s place in the line to source phyzz. 
      China $1.3 T in Treasury’s or equal to 15% of Chinese GDP…since ’08 China has increased Treasury holdings by $800 B
      Germany $60 B or equal to 2% of GDP…since ’08 Germany has increased by $10 B
      India $60 B or 3% GDP…completely cut off.
      US takes care of those that take care of them???

    • @Hambone Your theory imply’s that China is taking care of us?  I don’t think there is anything friendly like that going on.  We are making tributes to the king.  Almost like paying extortion money to the mob actually.  Should we refuse to deliver on the Chinese demands for gold, they will breaka you face.  Or your arm, or whatever else.  There is no love between the West and the Chinese.

    • @Pollokeeper
      I believe as you have said China have first dibs – presumably through threat.
      As for any gold in Fort Knox, if there is, there ain’t much. There was a video of the guy who went in to check the gold existed. He mentioned the gold being (paraphrasing) bits and bobs, scrappy gold that was not 400oz good delivery bars. I read that they were down to the bottom of the barrel, even if that still looked like a lot of gold.
      JC

    • “There is no love between the West and the Chinese.”
       
      Just so.  In fact, there is NO love at all between any Asian country and any other country.  But they do seem to dislike those from further away less than they do their close neighbors.

  6. I’m getting a bit tired of the German gold story.
    The conclusions everyone seems to draw are probably correct, i.e. the gold is no longer in the U.S., but unless Germany starts making threats it just doesn’t mean much. Yes, the gold is gone, but they’ve agreed to an 8-year return plan, so that’s the end of it.
    Its a fine data point, but thats it, for now anyway.

  7. After I posted a comment, this popped up on my screen. I’ve never seen anything like this before on any other site.

    Reported Web Forgery!

    This web page at updatersoft.com has been reported as a web forgery and has been blocked based on your security preferences.

    Web forgeries are designed to trick you into revealing personal or financial information by imitating sources you may trust.

    Entering any information on this web page may result in identity theft or other fraud.

    • Perhaps this site could benefit from the use of a good pop-up blocker?  That “Selected just for you” banner would be 1st on my list to “get out of my face”!

  8. When this story first broke I was very surprised that it didn’t cause an uproar in the MSM and serve as a major upside catalyst for gold prices. It seems that most shrugged it off as a non-event and hence gold continued its downward trajectory. What will it take for people to wake up? My fear is most will not until the collapse actually happens. 

    • There will never be an uproar in the MSM until their owners tell them to create one.  Apparently, they did not tell them to create one over this swept-under-the-rug story.  The MSM is not about truth.  It is about making splashy but trivial headlines and selling ads.  That’s all.
       

  9. One might think about the consolidation of all bankrupt sovereigns, which are many by the way, U S, China included with current debt bubbles to default on all debt and revive the world economy with a one world depreciated debt currency. That is a very good probability. So one also needs to think about what the value of Gold and Silver may be after the debt forgiven currency is in place all over the world? Just thoughts to consider as the dark powers work in the shadows.

  10. The whole things is a scam. If Germany wanted there gold back they could of got it with in a reasonable time frame. In the form of gold or cash. So they could of actually bought it on the crimex. Simple put if they couldn’t get it they didn’t have it to big with. The real question here is where is all the gold an silver going to an why is the price dropping when everybody is buying.

    • During WWII, the US and English force pulled off many operations designed to deceive the enemy.  From creating whole armies out of blow up balloons, to leaking information intentionally.  Make no mistake, they are good at deception. 
       
      This whole story of Germany wanting to repatriate its gold stinks like a deception operation.  In life, the most implausible explanation is usually the correct one.
       
      So, to what purpose would we be conducting deception operations?  Seems to me there is a currency war going on.  What advantage would the US have in appearing to not have any gold?  That is the question I would like to have answered.
       
      In the meantime, I will keep stacking.  Gold and silver have always been money and have never gone to zero. 

  11. I believe this puts paid to the unproven, speculative contention – by that whack-job, Karen Hudes – that 170,000 metric tonnes of gold is secreted away in Hawaii.
    Do you not think that TPTB would not have access to this cache? Do you not think that they could just rock up and, from said cache, give Germany all the gold that they requested? Heck, if this cache even existed, what would be the point of rehypothecating anything, given the abundance of gold which that whack-job, Karen Hudes, so positively speaks!!!
    Red flag, red alerts, and a heavy dose of Bravo Sierra.
    It’s now time for these bankers to begin rapidly bleeding to death! 

    • Unless they were trying to crash the treasury market so that they could buy back the bonds at a steep discount with their secret gold stash, and also make the Chinese gold pile less valuable when they officially declare their bajillion ounces of gold.
       

  12. Hi Charlie and all I just got logged back in after most of the day in the MOPESTERS Dog house. I guess us mouthy ones are being targeted. Not much to say about German gold. It’s being said above. But the funny thing is China can buy 2,600 of gold in one year and Germany gets the stonk finger.
    Message to Merkel
    Trying to get your deadbeat uncle to give you back your toys is fruitless
    Buy a new stack while its cheap
    Get over it
    Uncle Sam took your toys
    Complaining about it will make no difference
    Uncle Wo has the stones to buy with whatever suasion at his disposal.
    Uncle Wo has some serious s*** on Uncle Sam
    Merkel, you are old news.
    You got the White House.
    You got top Nazi elites in our government.
    You got the Bush, Kissinger Brezinski, Kennedy and Rockefeller clans.
    If you can’t get 375 tons of gold you ain’t got nothin’
    Get over it.
    Like Charlie says
    Keep stackin’ Angela.
    Good advice from the dude

  13. The gold market doesn’t care about the German deal, that means something at the end of the day. Once again, are there any shortages of gold at $1200 oz?   No.   
    There is plenty of gold at $1200 oz today, that’s all that matters.

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