Three Key Economic & Resource Reality Opportunities for Investors

silver dollarReal unemployment is increasing in the U.S.A., and has now risen to a record 23.4%!
This is significant not only because of the devastating impact on the poor souls who cannot find work, (and reflects indeed the increasing impoverishment of the USA’s middle class) but also because it means that the U.S. Consumer – 70% of the U.S. Economy – is not going to be able to generate or sustain an economic recovery.
The U.S. is already Threshold Hyperinflationary with Real CPI at 9% (generated by ongoing Massive Central Banks’ QE) and Real GDP a Negative -1.98%.  These increasing CPI numbers signal an Opportunity for those who Invest with an eye to the coming Hyperinflation and a Threat to those who do not.

 

Warbird launch

 
Submitted by Deepcaster:

“Shadowstats Alternate Unemployment Measure rose to a series high 23.4% in June up from 23% in May, 2013.”

 

shadowstats.com, 7/5/2013

 

Three Key Economic/Resource Realities provide Opportunities (or Threats if unacknowledged) for Investors going forward.

 

Deepcaster periodically publicizes and analyzes such Opportunities/Threats because much of the Mainstream Media either fails to report, or blacks out, or spins and distorts such Critical Information.

 

First, Deepcaster periodically provides Updates on the Real Numbers on the U.S. Economy and other economies so Investors will not have to Rely on Bogus Official Ones in making Investing decisions.

 

In fact, Real unemployment is increasing in the U.S.A., and has now risen to a record 23.4%! (Note 1)

 

This is significant not only because of the devastating impact on the poor souls who cannot find work, (and reflects indeed the increasing impoverishment of the USA’s middle class) but also because it means that the U.S. Consumer – 70% of the U.S. Economy – is not going to be able to generate or sustain an economic recovery.

 

Shadowstats numbers also “Warn” that the U.S. is already Threshold Hyperinflationary with Real CPI at 9% (generated by ongoing Massive Central Banks’ QE) and Real GDP a Negative -1.98%. See Shadowstats Chart (Note 1). These increasing CPI numbers signal an Opportunity for those who Invest with an eye to the coming Hyperinflation and a Threat to those who do not. See Notes 2, 3 and 4 below re Specific Recommendations.

 

The Focus of another Opportunity/Threat is on the Prospects for Stability in the Mideast and its effect on Crude Oil supplies and Prices.

 

We have earlier pointed out that even with the increased Oil Production resulting from fracking, total oil production now in the U.S.A. has now risen to only half of consumption, and (contrary to Mainstream Media generated Opinion) not likely ever to exceed 2/3 of consumption, absent a Depression. And other Major Developed and Developing Economies such as the Eurozone and China consume much more then they produce, and will likely do so for a long time to come.

 

Therefore, the U.S. and Developed world will continue to rely on the Mideast for Crude for the foreseeable future.

 

But consider the prospects for Mideast stability, and specifically the ability to safely ship Oil through Egypt’s Suez Canal, in light of the following

 

“…it’s worth revisiting the analysis Chris wrote 2 years ago…

“While the power players are now different, the underlying factors persist.

“Here are a few quite relevant statistics about Egypt

The relentless math:

Population 1960:  27.8 million
Population 2008:  81.7 million
Current population growth rate: 2% per annum (a 35-year doubling rate)
Population in 2046 after another doubling:  164 million

Rainfall average over whole country:  ~ 2 inches per year
Highest rainfall region:  Alexandria, 7.9 inches per year
Arable land (almost entirely in the Nile Valley):  3%
Arable land per capita:  0.04 Ha (400 m2)
Arable land per capita in 2043: 0.02 Ha
Food imports: 40% of requirements
Grain imports: 60% of requirements

Net oil exports: Began falling in 1997, went negative in 2007
Oil production peaked in 1996
Cost of oil rising steeply
Cost of oil and food tightly linked (since portable fuel, i.e., oil/gasoline is the primary energy source for food production –Ed.)

The future of Egypt will be shaped by these few biophysical facts — a relentless form of math that is hardly unique to Egypt, by the way — and it matters very little who is in power.

“The interesting part is that these facts have been in plain view for decades, building into economic and social pressures that were suddenly unleashed in a wave of social and political unrest. How was it that such obvious things escaped notice for so long before they suddenly reared up into plain view? Instead of being a surprising exception to the rule, we should instead brace ourselves against the idea that this is just the way things tend to work. 

“Back to the main story. Without persistent (and rising) food imports, Egypt cannot feed itself. It has managed to cover up the shortfall by having enough oil to export, but, like every country, their oil reserves are finite and eventually they’ll face a day of reckoning.  

“The oil situation in Egypt has only very recently become an enormous and unavoidable issue.

“The re-emergence of political turmoil we’re witnessing is quite predictable from the “relentless math” Chris laid out. Or perhaps more directly put: resources don’t care about politics.” (Emphasis added)

“Revisiting Egypt’s Warning,” Adam Taggart,

peakprosperity.com, 07/03/2013

 

The principles reflected in the foregoing facts (e.g., regarding population carrying capacity) about Egypt can be applied to every country.

 

They reveal one (of several) demographic fallacy(ies).

 

That is the Fallacy that Population Growth is always or usually Good for an Economy and the Citizens of that Nation. (See carryingcapacity.org for more on Population/Resource carrying capacity.)

 

Egypt’s population has been doubling every 35 years and it has a huge cohort of unemployed youth.

 

Apart from the fact that such a huge Youth Cohort creates high Revolutionary Potential, (as we are now witnessing) there are other Negatives.

 

Consider the high and rising Unemployment Rate (well in the double digits for Youth).

 

But how is it possible for an economy to increase jobs if virtually all of its arable land is already under cultivation, it is a net food importer and a net energy importer. Providing the essentials — food, potable water, and energy – are the necessary conditions for any other kind of sustainable economic health or development.

 

No amount of Tech Prowess can significantly increase Food Production without a “reservoir” of arable land and potable water, or increase hydrocarbon reserves at all, if the hydrocarbons are not there.

 

In short, in light of its resources base, Egypt has already overshot its Optimum Population Carrying Capacity. [Carrying capacity refers to the number of individuals who can be supported in a given area within natural resource limits, and without degrading the natural social, cultural and economic environment for present and future generations. The carrying capacity for any given area is not fixed. It can be altered somewhat by improved technology, but not to an unlimited degree. Mainly, it is changed for the worse by pressures which accompany a population increase. As the environment is degraded, carrying capacity actually shrinks, leaving the environment no longer able to support even the number of people who could formerly have lived in the area on a sustainable basis. No population can live beyond the environment's carrying capacity for very long.]

 

Thus the consequences for Mideast stability and future Crude Oil Availability are not promising. But they do provide an Opportunity to profit from Crude Oil Price Rises.

 

Ominously, other countries in the developing (and developed) world present similar problematic profiles (consider India and Bangladesh, for example).

 

Such “Net Importer” low carrying capacity countries, when overpopulated, present a Real Drag on the economy.

 

The Third Opportunity/Threat is provided by The Fed’s apparently Intentional Policy of Creating Confusion. Will they taper or won’t they, and if so, when?

 

For example, the “News” dribbling out before the FOMC Minutes were recently released suggested they would begin Tapering this year, probably in September.

 

But when Bernanke subsequently indicated that The Fed’s QE would continue as long as necessary – and The Fed would adopt “a highly accommodative policy for the forseeable future” — it had the effect of boosting Equities to all-time highs. The critical Fact is that these all-time highs are artificially created by Q.E. and not by fundamental Economic Strength.

 

In fact, (as we have argued elsewhere) The Fed can not end QE (Witness what happened in the Markets when they just hinted they would) until “Forced” to do so because the consequent Hyperinflation has spun out of control and/or we have Serious Stagflation. Indeed QE to Infinity is with us until such occurs.

 

Meanwhile, Investors can invest and profit and protect wealth from knowing that QE is not going away any time soon, and that it will inevitably create Hyperinflation, and by acting on that knowledge.

 

Best regards,

 

Deepcaster

July 12, 2013

 

Note 1: Shadowstats.com calculates Key Statistics the way they were calculated in the 1980s and 1990s before Official Data Manipulation began in earnest. Consider:

 

Bogus Official Numbers       vs.        Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

 

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported June 18, 2013
1.36%     /     8.99%

U.S. Unemployment reported July 5, 2013
7.6%     /     23.4%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported June 26, 2013
1.62%        /     -1.98%

U.S. M3 reported July 5, 2013 (Month of June, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report     / (e)   4.37% (i.e, total M3 Now at $15.189 Trillion!)

 

Note 2: Since the May highs, Equities Markets exhibited a sideways chop with a downward bias, until just the past few days mini-Rally which has impelled Equities back near their 2013 highs.

 

But within the next few weeks we can expect certain Key Sectors to begin Rallying hard and others to Fall dramatically.

 

Deepcaster identifies these Key Sectors and indicates why they can be expected to Rally hard or Fall dramatically in the next few weeks or very few months, in Deepcaster’s latest Alert, “Key Sectors to Rally/Fall; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Equities, & Crude Oil,” just posted on Deepcaster.com.

 

And you will note there is one Critical Sector which we expect to dramatically plunge.

 

Note 3: Are two Key Sectors reversing powerfully?

 

Or are we just witnessing Head Fakes, soon to be re-reversed powerfully?

 

There is increasing evidence that the Reversal of one Key Sector is For Real and that this is the time to jump on board. The other appears to be a Head Fake.

 

To consider the evidence, consider our Forecasts in our recent Alert “Key Sector Reversals?!!; QE Forecast Shocker; Forecasts: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Crude Oil, Equities, Gold & Silver,” posted at deepcaster .com.

 

And we just issued a Shocking Forecast for QE.

 

Note 4: Near-Term (next few weeks) versus Mid-Term (next very few months) Forecasts are looking very Different for Key Sectors.

 

And there is an Extraordinary Buy Opportunity in One Key Sector.

 

To see the Differences for these Key Sectors and the Buy Opportunity, read Deepcaster’s recent ‘Alert’, “Near-Term Versus Mid-Term Forecasts & Buy Reco: U.S. Dollar/Euro, U.S. T-Notes, T- Bonds, & Interest Rates, Gold & Silver, Crude Oil, & Equities,” posted in the ‘Alerts Cache’ on deepcaster.com.

 

Silver Buffs Generic Add2

Comments

  1. Yawn, this is for Mammoth.
     
    By The Way, what has this Morgan Silver Dollar have to do with the article?

  2. Ed you asked a few of us what the ‘reset’ might be like.  We are already several years into our Armageddon.  The uemployment rate is Greek-like.  Greece 11 million population —4.5 million employed tax payers.  41%  gainfully employed.
       USA  315,000,000 population, 120,000,000 employed tax payers .  38% gainfully employed
    What are the differences?
    Greece can’t print its own currency. We can and thus we can stave off the inevitable collapse of the currency and debt oblivion that looms over us.
    We spend $1,000,000,000,000 in transfer payments to our citizens per year.    That is 40% of the taxes collected.  Another $775,000,000,000 goes to retirees and veterans.  74% of taxes collected at the Federal level go to those who are not working.  I am not being critical of those who get money from the government. I am just stating a fact not making judgements.

    Budget for the US?  About $3.8 trillion estimated this year.  Deficit will probably be $800 billion to $1 trillion. More debt, more printing, more QE. Inevitable.
    The state, local and federal governments now spend about 43-45% of the entire GDP of this country.  The GDP has not moved up one nickel in the last 4 years.  It is therefore going backwards at 2% by Fed inflation levels.  It is going backwards at 8% is the real inflation rate is used
    It is no surprise that while the BLS is feeding us car loads of bullshit which most of us gobble down like breakfast, 25% of the kids in this country go to bed hungry.  Food insufficiency is rampant.  BLSBS does not fill their stomachs. Once the hunger-based hue and cry is loud enough, the streets will be red with blood.  I assure you that will happen as it is happening elsewhere.  People will never stand for their children starving no matter when the NWO Agenda 21 people think is best for us.  Culling 90% of the world’s population might sound peachy to them but 5,000,000,000 people will be mighty hacked off and not stand for it.  MOLON LABE in reverse.  We will come and get them.
    And yet we have not seen the rioting and civil strife in the streets like we see in Greece, Syria, Egypt, Spain, Italy and Cyprus
    How long will we passively sit back and see our lives rotofucked into oblivion????? 
    Well, I’ll tell you!!
    As long as it take for the vast bulk of 230 years of national wealth to be  stolen from us by taxes, regulations and tariffs imposed by the government; interest on our FIAT and the banksters centuries-long plan to strip us everything we hold in our  physical possession and also hold near and dear to our hearts.
    That’s when. 
    That is when the bulk of the people will get off their lazy dead asses, put down their toys, turn off Honey Boo Boo (WFT is that?) and take up weapons against these power hungry psychopaths. 
     When we are homeless in the country our forefather fought to preserve, then the fat and shit will be in the fire.
     
    We have two choices and only two choices. 
    Fight these sons of bitches, ghouls and golems with all our might—that means there  will be blood. Get used to it.
    We could lose but just as  the men and women who pledged their lives, fortunes and sacred honor fought the good fight, we may have to do that again and with the same resolve and pledge of the same cost.   A second American Revolution? Hell yes!
      There are 1,000 of us for every one of them.
    The odds stink on ice for THEM
    Or we just resign our fates and fall back to FUCKING FEUDALISM
    Does that sound ok with everyone?  Life, short nasty and brutish?  Huh?  Is that ok with everyone?
    Not for one goddam minute is it acceptable to me. And I will not go down into that abyss without a fight
    There are things worth fighting and dying for.  The Constitution and our God given rights and liberties are—for one. They mean something and not just to the few who understand what they mean and what it took to throw off the chains of foreign rule.
    That some cruel overlords think they have it all figured out and that we will go meekly into that good night ain’t gonna happen on my watch.
    EdB, this is  my short version of plans I have formulated against the terrorists, psychopaths and pederasts in $2,500 suits.  If it comes to that I’ll be there. If it doesn’t, I will be happy that I’m wrong.  But then, I’ve been wrong plenty of times before.
     
     

    • AG, I agree and understand the macro picture as well as most.  What I am really looking for is an up close and personal look at what our daily lives might be like in the coming SHTF scenario… a brief glimpse through a window glass darkly, as it were.  Daily life WILL be THE issue that we face each and every day.  But what will it look like, for the prepared, the semi-prepared, and the unprepared.  Damn, I feel a book coming on… even if I have to write it myself.  ;-)
       

  3. Dang, Underground  and M45 I got screwed mine look like that but they are  bright yellow.

  4. We will not see an economic recovery until we void all free trade treaties and get back to making physical goods here in the USA. Throwing money at Wall Street is just continuing the problem and making the fall that much worse.

    • It’s like a game of JENGA
      Build that wobbly-@$$ tower ever higher, using bricks from the foundation, 
      until…. BAMM!  
       
      It Topples much harder than it would if we built it SOLID, without debasing it! 
      In fact, with proper build principles, it will Never Fall! 

    • Agreed, RGR.  The gold and silver money standard was not broken until they “fixed” it ’til it was.  One can only wonder what the US would be like today if we had even a paper money system that was not borrowed into existence at interest and that was backed by the production of the US economy.  In this scenario, more money could not be printed until the economy expanded to the point where it was needed for the efficient transfer of goods and services.  Similarly, when the economy contracts, money should be removed from the economy such that the amount of money available just meets the needs for the efficient transfer of goods and services, no more and no less.

      Also agree with Mary. Making things is where the most value is added to any economy… not in the raw materials, although they do generate wealth too, not in the distribution, not in the warehousing, not in the selling, and not in the servicing. Actually MAKING things is where REAL wealth comes from that can then allow companies to afford to buy the raw materials, hire the truckers, and pay the warehouse costs, sales force, and maintenance folks. For those in DC, this is called BUILDING and it generates REAL wealth. Consuming does not generate wealth, it dissipates it. If we are trying to prove how long we can dissipate the wealth of our nation rather than create more of it, we are right on schedule and are now reaping what we have sown. It will be a poor and bitter harvest for most.

    • Ed_B … “In this scenario, more money could not be printed until the economy expanded to the point where it was needed”

      Ed, there IS a viable paper money adjunct for ‘flexibility’ under the Real Bill Doctrine of discounted credit conveyance. Since a Real Bill extinguishes at face value on maturity (think of them as structurally like short-term ‘Savings Bonds’, issued at a discount to face at maturity), where any premature liquidation against that maturity value (say to provide a wage fund) is at a FURTHER discount (so, the ‘loan’ is compensated with a fee) but the notes issued MATCH THE REAL BILL’S MATURITY. In that scheme, the notes don’t ‘float’ indefinitely, JUSTIFIABLY raising the issue of compounding interest, which depletes circulating specie, shrinking maximal economic activity the coinage could support by its ‘velocity’.

      Remember, Real Bills are created to account for credit involved in materials acquired for production of goods for identifiable market demand, so ‘liquidate’ at the point of final consumer transactions. If the producer needs some additional portion of cash for extraordinary costs above normal, that ‘cash’ can be notional … but … ALSO expire on the same date as the underlying Real Bill. The vast bulk of debt overhang is thus TEMPORARY AND SELF-EXTINGUISHING.

  5. “We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. And I have just one interest, and now if I am wrong somebody else can have my job. I want to see this country prosper. I want to see people get a job. I want to see people get enough to eat. We have never made good on our promises. I say after eight years of this administration, we have just as much unemployment as when we started. And enormous debt to boot.” –Henry Morgenthau, Treasury Secretary, 1938

    I’d say the above evidence makes Bernanke one of the stupidest idiots in our country … given he’s touted to be an ‘Expert’ on the Great Depression … but then, folks on this list know what I say about ‘Expertosis’.

    • “Consistency has never been a sign of stupidity. We all know that when a person is stupid, he has a 50-50 chance of doing the right thing”. (James Forrestal)
      I believe that Bernanke is not stupid, but rather “cunningly brilliant”. What Bernanke is doing is defined in the Constitution as treason. (article 3 section 3 clause 1)
      Treason is being committed on a colossal scale today. And it’s time we called it that.

    • mexrph

      “If any citizen of the United States shall accept, claim, receive, or retain any title of nobility or honour, or shall without the consent of Congress, accept and retain any present, pension, office, or emolument of any kind whatever, from any emperor, king, prince, or foreign power, such person shall cease to be a citizen of the United States, and shall be incapable of holding any office of trust or profit under them, or either of them.” The Genuine 13th Amendment

  6. wow   bought some fake AWS on Ebay got a refund ,had wrong weight and size off a bit,looked great 1986 & 1987 toned ect,the seller I think didn’t know it was faux

    • I continue to hear stories about sellers on ebay shipping fake Eagles.  Just curious how you noticed?  Were they too thick, weight off, missing details, etc.?

      Also, to confirm they weren’t from a big dealer that we would recognize but some independent or small timer?

    • @SilverDagger said: “…bought some fake AWS on Ebay…”
      AWS = American Silver Eagle?
      ———————————
      Noticed undeRGRound’s pic of that (fake) 1906 ASE; seen that one elsewhere online before.
      Which makes me think – 2016 will be the 100th anniversary of the famous Walking Liberty design, which graces both the half follar as well as the ASE.  And in addition – it will be the 30th anniversary of the initial release of the ASE.  For those who are so inclined, keep an eye on special release(s) from the US Mint to commemorate these two events.
       
      And BTW, Adolph Weinmann also designed the Mercury Dime – which was also released in 1916.

  7. the Chinese are a busy people 

  8. I would like to point out to Deepcaster that a depression is not coming… it is already here and the people in DC know it.  They and their paid monkeys in the media have set the stage such that we are not supposed to recognize the obvious when it hits us full in the face like a hurled cow pie.  When a nation experiences a prolonged period of falling national production combined with persistent long-term high unemployment, that is the classic definition of a depression.  Does this sound familiar?  It should.

  9. Ed  I have thought through way too many scenarios to be sanguine on an easy day when that day comes.  When Doc put the book on the site about 2 years ago and its sequel Goldstein, that was a gloomy one.  Patriots by Rawles is pretty post apocalyto.  Gritty. Way to much into the prepper for me. I can’t get my head wrapped around the infinite details in that book.
    I think you’ll need to do the writing on that up close and personal set of scenarios.  Best to be prepped, have a good team, faith in the all mighty and some luck and hope.

  10. Noonan Article Clip:
    Which would you rather own?

    Have the precious metals decline gone down farther and last longer than most expected? Yes, and yes. Will both gold and silver go back up in value? Without question. So why be concerned where the current price levels are? It is the last bargain of a lifetime, maybe even for generations. Can the price of both still go lower? Based on the charts, yes. Will they? Possibly, but that remains to be seen.

    The New World Order, [NWO], is alive and well. It is actively exerting control over smaller European countries, and dictating policy for the entire region. The NWO has been operating under the radar in the bankrupt United States since 1933, so Americans remain willingly oblivious to its stealth forces and continue to believe they live in the “Land of the Free,” despite the Stasi-like conditions.

    The point of mentioning the NWO is to let everyone know that it is their intent to enslave the world. How do they do that? By destroying wealth. Prior to the Roosevelt 1933 gold confiscation scam, Americans used to own gold and silver. It was a form of wealth, and as long as they had it, they were not dependent upon the government. Hence, the “turn in your gold [wealth], so we can control you and make you dependent upon the government for your existence. It is no accident that people are dependent upon Social Security, and more households than ever receive food stamps. Destroy wealth; cerate dependency.

    Fewer living Americans have ever held a gold coin, let alone own one. Americans live on debt, in the form of fiat and credit cards. They are NWO slaves, just without realizing it.
     

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