The Stage is Set in Silver

Source: AP/Ng Han Guan

Source: AP/Ng Han Guan

We cannot state strongly enough to buy, and personally hold as much silver as you can.
The stage is set.  Do not be fooled by the suppressed price of silver.
Common sense says it will not last.

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Submitted by EWT:

We are not a source for or fans of endless statistics, like the number of ounces
purchased from one period over another, how many ounces are available at the
Comex, how many ounces have been mined, the demand for v the production of
silver, etc, etc, etc.  Too boring.

 

 

It may satisfy many to know this information, but we are more interested in what
translates into results, where can a market turn be determined, where price is likely
to go, etc, etc, etc?  This is where the challenge lies, for it comes down to timing in
order to enter or exit a market, seeking profit opportunity in the process.

Knowing the exact number of ounces that stand for delivery says nothing about when
to act on that information.  The numbers have been low for some time, and bullish, as
well, but if one went long on that concrete factual information, one could have sustained
some hefty losses, at least in the futures market.  Buying and holding the physical is a
different matter and done for materially different reasons.

We prefer to follow what the market has to say about what all others are saying about the
market, and opinions on the market are boundless.  The actual number of participants
who make an active buy or sell trade decision is what can be read from a chart, in the form
of price and volume.  It is the language of the market and how it speaks.

For all of the discontinuity between unprecedented demand and artificially suppressed
“supply,” the charts have been the most accurate barometer, as price rallied to the highs
of $50, as well as  back down to the $18 area.

Will silver lead gold in the next rally, or not?  Which will bottom first?  In some ways, it
does not matter because the turnaround time factor will be very close.  Here is how we
read current price conditions in silver and what the market is saying about them.

The higher time frames are more controlling and take more effort to turn.  The monthly
is great for establishing a context, and it is the preferred chart for smart money movers.
They are not interested in day-to-day, and especially intra day activity, where the public
spends most time and effort.  In fact, not many traders ever look at a monthly chart.

By adding what may be some of the most important lines to capture and define
developing market activity helps formulate knowledge of the trend and even its
character, strong or weak, trending or moving sideways.  The objective is to find any
existing synergy between different time frames, which does not always happen.

The horizontal line at 26 was important support, and once broken, it has now become
important resistance, whenever price returns to it.  The next step was to draw a channel
to see how the decline is developing within the obvious down trend.  Concurrent with
price location in the down channel, we see it is also returned to what was a base from
which price rallied to the high at $50.

Two factors stand out. 1. price is staying close to the upper channel line and not the lower
channel one.  In a weak market, expect price to be near or exceeding the lower line.
2. The lows of the decline are staying above the previous support area, denoted by the
rectangular box.  It is a relatively positive sign when support is found atop a previous
trading range.

Looking at the bar activity alone, the strong rally bar, 5th from the right, is being
corrected by 4 months to retrace what 1 month accomplished to the upside.  Wide-range
bars tend to offer support.  In a weak market, support tends to be at the lower end of the
bar, and that is where price is, as of the week just ended.

To get a better handle on what it may mean, we next look at a weekly chart.  The month is
still early, so no weight can be placed on it with 3 more weeks to go, although the last time
price declined to this level, 6 months ago, the range was small and led to the rally just
mentioned.

SI M 8 Dec 13

 

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The focus is going to be current price activity, and not past.  The first arrow, on the left, is
the low for the month of August and the start of a strong 4 week rally.  It has taken all of
14 weeks to retrace the 4 week gain.  In a down market, you would expect the reverse, 4
weeks down and a labored 14 week rally, so this is a subtle message of which to be aware.

Last week being the 6th straight bar down, most of the closes were on the lower end of
each bar.  This last one has a close at mid-range.  What that suggests is the presence of
buyers overcoming sellers, at the low.  A look at the daily will provide more confirmation
or denial of that conclusion.

You can at least see a degree of harmony in activity between the two higher time frames.

SI W 8 Dec 13

The chart comments address how support did indeed come into the market, strongly from
the lows, 3rd bar from right.  The next two bars were inside bars.  What we take away
from Friday’s activity, the last bar, is a lower open and lower low from Thursday, but an
ability to rally and close above the opening and just above mid-range the bar, a sign that
buyers were more in control than sellers.  Otherwise, price would have closed lower.

The conclusion to be drawn is respect for the trend, clearly down.  Where we have shown
a positive “spin” on the character of price behavior at the current lows, that is still where
price is, at the lows.  One can not be bullish here by any stretch of the imagination.

If silver is to find a bottom, whether current levels hold or not, it will take months for a
base to develop from which price can launch a sustained rally.  The one exception would
be a “V-Bottom” rally where price simply takes off without building a base and accelerates
higher.  That is always a possibility.

As for taking a position in the futures, it cannot be from the ling side, for it would be
against the prevailing trend in all time frames.  As to buying physical silver, we are likely
looking at a price level that will not be revisited in the next few generations.  Price may
still go lower, to some degree, but what the Federal Reserve is doing to destroy the fiat
currency and the economy makes asking the question of to buy physical or not a
superfluous one.

We cannot state strongly enough to buy, and personally hold as much silver as you can.
The stage is set.    Do not be fooled by the suppressed price of silver.  Common sense says
it will not last.  No one knows how long it will take to end.  Be prepared, for it is likely to
get uglier than most expect, but the rewards will be great.  Silver buyers already know that.

SI D 8 Dec 13

Comments

  1. I”m seriously considering liquidating my RRSP, taking the hit and rolling into silber..

    • I cashed out of a 401k, took a nasty..nasty upfront hit and then had to pay 10k+ in fed taxes, I turned the rest into phyzz. Too bad I bought most at 37$/oz !!! been cost avg since then with monthly buys… but i hold it so i own it, and unlike the rest of the brain dead global zombies  know how unbelievably under-priced, rare, manipulated and highly used this precious commodity is. I’d like to think it’s a 1:1 GSR and that time will break out some day for those patient waiters.
      I have another 401k that is screaming to be set free. Wife’s not happy with my thinking.

    • yeah I’m thinking now, downside can’t be much, especially for hold it in your hand physical.

    •  U S MINT  Silver $ales  2013

      January       7,498,000
      February     3,368,500
      March          3,356,500
      April            4,087,000
      May             3,458,500
      June            3,275,000
      July             4,406,500
      August         3,625,000
      September  3,013,000
      October        3,087,000
      November    2,300,000
      December       926,000

      Total             42,401,000

    • i think, your decision will cause you “fortune” in the future
      ( or you will regret it if you don’t do that )
      .
      Lindsey William tell us that “possibly” in the next 3 month
      there will be “Global Currency Reset”


      .
      oh by the way
      if you ask indonesian people about “currency reset” in other term like “re denomination”
      they will understand… and already know that
      because their government have declare it since 2011 or 2012
      that their country will have “redenomination” in their currency in 2014
      ( the goverment tell them the exact year… 2014… but not the exact month or date )
      by slashing 3 digit number in indonesian Rupiah
      ( such as “replacing” Rp 10,000 by Rp 10 )
      .
      hmmm… 2014 ?
      just a coincidence ?

    • I’ve also been picking up hints from several of my deep sources of a global currency reset sooner than later.  And that was before I saw Lindsey’s report with Waltzek the other day.  He’s a second indicator that it may be coming sooner than later.  Would explain why the we are seeing the increasing pressure on the metals prices of late.

  2. Ng have one big sense of humor.  Zombies don’t buy Silver.  Remember that. 

  3. Technical analysis for gold and silver – is guesswork and voodoo witchcraft.

    • which is why i stopped watching BrotherJohnF last year – TA on a market under such nano-second manipulation cannot be properly broken down. Any market really.. This is why I cannot stand listening to talking heads blabbing about recoveries and up-swings in housing, jobs, the DOW etc. it sickening. I hear the same sh*t from people are work – “things are getting better” It’s not gonna end well and the propaganda arm of the govt will always hide the truth.
      poor bastards
      just stack and enjoy the warmth of the burning fiat.
       

    • I find what John Embry had to say on this subject of currency debasement relevant to our conversations in this forum of late:
      “…Monetary debasement has accelerated everywhere.  This was discussed so beautifully by Egon von Greyerz on KWN late last week.  If in fact gold and silver prices were not being suppressed and they were reacting to what is happening in the paper world, the prices for both metals would be a minimum of double where they are today, if not more….  Now in that environment, clearly people would start to question the value of paper money.  They would also say that the interest rates are preposterous.  Investors would ask, ‘How can you expect me to hold on to this paper with miniscule interest rates in a world in which that paper is going to be destroyed?”

       
      Here’s the punch line:  Can you now see just how TPTB are in a life and death struggle with market forces to keep the lid on these metals??  As long as they can keep that little canary flyin’ and flittin’ around and chirping up a symphony, they can perpetuate their End-Of-Times delay…   But the minute that canary drops dead, it’s GAME OVER for the suppression AND the financial voodoo. 
       
      The propaganda claiming ALL IS WELL and improving is unbelievable!!!   The PPT infusions into the stock markets are unbelievable!!!   7% unemployment???  Only $85 Billion in QE??? Tell me they are going to hold this POS financial situation together long enough for my precious metals to rust? In all of world history, we have NO precedent for the level of recoil that’s going to released when this pressure cooker lid blows off.
       
       

    • I get a chuckle watching people blabbering on over their worthless charts. What an effing joke and useless time sink. You’d have better luck emailing the Federal Reserve and asking them what the price fix is going to be…

    • “Only $85 Billion in QE??? Tell me they are going to hold this POS financial situation together long enough for my precious metals to rust? In all of world history, we have NO precedent for the level of recoil that’s going to released when this pressure cooker lid blows off.”
       
      If it will help, for a small bit of that monthly $85B, I will be HAPPY to pretend that I am employed in order to pad the numbers a bit more!  ;-)
       

  4. From Trader Dan,   http://www.traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/12/qe-is-not-producing-inflation-here-in-us.html
    “Velocity of Money” nothing can be more important in determiing the future direction of the gold price.”
    “sharp jumps in inflation, requires that money be changing hands in the general economy at an “increasing rate”. That is clearly NOT happening.”
    “Any sort of sustained rally in the price of gold will not occure until..inflation expectations begin to arise”
    The velocity of money is crashing today, and is at lower levels than when QE started, if velocity of money does not go higher, either does PM’ prices.

    • Zman,
      Did you cross over from the SLV message board?

    • Nope, I was never on it, why do you ask?

    • Everyone already knows there’s no price inflation. Why, the latest CPI-U number (from October 2013) meticulously calculated by our own federal government, shows that it’s only 1% annualized, and we know how trustworthy the BLS is. That’s the same agency that provides our consistently reliable unemployment numbers.

    • “Any sort of sustained rally in the price of gold will not occure until..inflation expectations begin to arise”
       
      Have you been looking at the global stock markets, bond markets, collectables, house prices in London, Hong Kong etc. recently? What are you talking about?  Inflation is the increase in the supply of money which is occurring on a massive scale.  Also through substitution and hedonic government CPI numbers have been manipulated and fudged for years. All you have to do is check out ShadowStats. I think you need to stop blindly believing everything paper jockey Trader Dan says and try using some common sense. According to him the precious markets are not manipulated in any way. YEAH RIGHT. Do you really believe that?

  5. (Disclaimer:  This does not really have anything to do with Silver but I just HAD to share.)
    Newsflash:
    “The US Treasury sold its last shares in General Motors on Monday, ending the dramatic rescue of the auto giant at the height of the financial crisis five years ago.
    The Treasury took a loss of more that $10 billion on the $49.5 billion bailout, but said that saving the US auto industry, the jobs of millions of auto workers and the pensions of many retirees was worth it.”
     
    Don’t feel too bad about having bought your Silver for more than today’s market price.  Uncle Sam lost 20% on his investment in GM.
    But then again, since that was the taxpayer’s money Uncle Sam lost, we should all feel bad about this fiasco.

    • Not to worry, Woolly.  That $10.5B lost was a pittance compared to the trillions that have already been squandered and lost by the US Gov over the past 4-5 decades.  They treat money as if it was worthless, so we should all let that be our guide in this.

  6. the coming crash is going to need more than just silver and gold stacked. Those who aren’t prepped will be the ones paying an oz or more of silver for a loaf of bread.

    • As a baker of bread, let me say here and now that I will be selling my loaves for less than that… merely 1/2 oz. of silver per loaf.  ;-)

  7. When the dollar is all but history you won’t give a hoot what you paid for silver, gold, ammo or food.  You’ll just be damn glad you have it.

  8. I’m looking to diversify out of sheer boredom of the shiny stuff. Been looking at Palladium, Platinum and Rhodium.
     
    Rhodium is the smart money, IF you can find a way to dump it when you have made your profit. So far, I can’t find an exit strategy with the stuff as of yet. Most people I speak to say “Rhodium, wtf is that?”…so god knows how i would offload it. I personally wouldn’t trust an eBay seller, selling me Rhodium. Would you?
     
    My thinking goes like this: Gold and Silver are hedges for bad times, Platinum Group of metals are a hedge for good times.
     
    The argument for Rhodium is massive, it can not be replaced in manufacturing of Catalytic Converters
     or Jewellery and the stuff is finite and rare as hens teeth.
     
    BUT I can not for the life of me think of an exist strategy, offloading it when it reaches a gazzilion dollars.
     
    any help, much appreciated.
     
    Silver?…..no way, I have shit loads of it, if I bought any more, my floorboards would collapse.
     
    Gold?….yup….good prices, easy to store, easy to move.
     
    Platinum? meh!…..taxes!
    Palladium? Potential, taxes!
    Rhodium????? the great unknown……. http://www.goldline.co.uk
     

    • If you travel, modest amounts of Palladium and platinum could be acquired tax-free. have not done it yet, as I cannot justify the traveling as yet. 1/2 ounce platinum coins are not much different from 2 euro coins. Toss them inside your wallet on the conveyor and fly with them.
      I have been wanting to buy palladium for a while, but haven’t yet. Taxes. But now that ~20% taxes are unavoidable for silver in Europe…why not? 

    • 1/2 Platinum coins sound cool, where from? I really don’t understand why they don’t do platinum coins/bars in fractional oz’s. I think the product would be a winner.
       
      whats you take on Rhodium XC Skater?

    • I suppose the US is a cheap place to buy metals, although you may need to buy cross-state online? Not sure.
      I am looking at Dubai. More and more flights going there.
      I suppose demand is unsure in fractionals, and relatively more production cost. Also I could imagine the metal being less practical to mint smaller/thinner coins from. No knowledge, but honest guessing.
       
      No idea about Rhodium, didn’t investigate enough to let any knowledge stick. Might be more of a metal to wait for. If a trend starts, get in. Perhaps even with a paper position. Saves the trouble of exit. I don’t like paper, but it has its uses on short-term trades. Wouldn’t want to take a leveraged long in silver now. Paper can die any moment, and unexpected price spikes down are to be expected to trigger stop losses.

    • I bought two platinum cns for my daughter and child to be.  It has great application as a jewelry metal, pliable but sturdy, attractive, and has a mass to it that is pleasing as well.  I thought these could be a good hedge for them in the future.  At worst, they’ll know what a platypus is before most their age (albeit an expensive lesson!)

  9. WaitingForSilver, are you from UK? I am from Slovakia and i am 3 months into curent time in Uk(becouse my silver must wait and i have to work for some fiat(unfortunetaly hard in warehouse, but it is better like sell my physicall stack). I am reacting because I was seeing your link. I look at their menu every day. I did not find anything cheaper. I wanted to buy some silver but tax of silver is 20%. I greet all from SD site. 

  10. Of course I will not sell for near future. Maybe I will buy some either until to end of december, but not from UK.

    • Watch out, availability of low-VAT silver could plummet before the year is over. I am waiting to make a purchase, and hating the price rise we’re looking at right now. Anticipate a take-down but it may be too late to take advantage from.

  11. Yes, XC, but I have my survival equipment, and there is enough from silver, now I need cash, maybe little bit gold/silver and when i will come from this “Big Brother” kingdom i have to invest into my health(teeth). I know that it is my last chance for Silver for low VAT. 

  12. it looks like silver broke the downward line

  13. I hope it’s a bull trap. This rise is costing me ounces every click up. NOT fun…

  14. Look on jun, bottom was 1180 USD/oz, before a week it was about 1210, i am not sure it is trap, but i hope so too. Everybody wait for lower prices and this can be bear trap. 

  15. So, I bought Elephant, Kookaburra and Koala(15+15+15), for the best price in EU. 

    • Elephants are my favorite. A shop with G sells them cheapest usually. Their Koala’s spiked up yesterday. I almost bought last week, and now hate myself.

  16. My price was about 18,69EUR/oz for Elephant.

  17. Yes, I also saw a very interesting price, but I can only buy from those who have it sent to my country. I had idea that it is a good offer, but I still was not sure what I really want, now I do not have to solve it.

  18. There(where i bought) was better price for Koala and Kookaburra is missing in their(granvalora.de)offer. Maybe is better cash, like silver. Who knows. Here is too many variables.

  19. @Sinuhe & XC. With reference to VAT within the EU post Jan 1st 2014, take a look at the following link. It may be good news for you:
    http://gold.celticgold.eu/p_en/gold-university/vat-on-silver-coins-from-january-2014-exemptions-of-vat-on-silver-coins.html

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