The Economy Is Tanking – Real GDP Is Now Tracking Negatively!

More economic data was released on Monday which further reinforces my contention that entire economy is in a serious decline.  In fact, based on several recent economic reports, it’s probably safe to say that the GDP, on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, is now retracting – i.e. we’re in a recession.
Please note that to measure real GDP, I’m using the latest reported annualized CPI as calculated by the Government.  In fact, the true inflation rate is significantly higher, which means that real GDP is in serious contraction.
Don’t act shocked when the Fed announces even more QE before the end of the year…

Silver Buffs Generic Add2

 
From Truth in Gold:

I’m sure by now everyone has seen the reported plunge in housing starts and housing permits on Tuesday.  Single-family housing starts declined for the fourth month in a row.  I have been expressing the view for a few months now, and backing the view up with copious amounts of evidence, that the housing market is getting ready to tank – and tank hard. Incidentally and anecdotally, just in the past couple of weeks I’ve noticed a literal avalanche of “for sale” signs all around central Denver.

And more economic data was released on Monday which further reinforces my contention that entire economy is in a serious decline.  In fact, based on several recent economic reports, it’s probably safe to say that the GDP, on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, is now retracting – i.e. we’re in a recession.  As John Williams of Shadowstats.com explains:

Underlying economic reality remains much weaker than Fed projections. As actual economic conditions gain broader recognition, market sentiment should shift quickly towards no imminent end to QE3, and then to expansion of QE3. The markets and the Fed are stuck with underlying economic reality, and, eventually, they will have to recognize same. Business activity remains in continued and deepening trouble.

Seeking Alpha has published my latest analysis of the economy and the reasons I claim that the economy is back in recession:   Negative GDP and No Taper Coming

Please note that to measure real GDP, I’m using the latest reported annualized CPI as calculated by the Government.  In fact, the true inflation rate is significantly higher, which means that real GDP is in serious contraction.

Don’t act shocked when the Fed announces even more QE before the end of the year…


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Comments

  1. Tax revenue has been increasing for the Federal government, and for many states. More QE anytime soon, not gonna happen. Only if a we a have a major downturn in the economy, so far there is no evidence of this happening.
    Yes, inflation adjusted GDP has been flat or negative for years, what else is new.

  2. I’ll give you your due zman your opinions never change, they are usually opposite from the poster. Keep Stacking

  3. http://money.cnn.com/2013/07/19/news/economy/detroit-bankruptcy-order/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
     
    Judge orders Detroit to withdraw bankruptcy filing
    Its a form of austerity! Who are you kidding! It called the Constitution Motherfuck*ers can you read it?!
     
     
     
     

  4. But the MSM told me things are getting better… they forgot to mention that was only for the top of the top 1%

  5. zman 
    I spent about 30 minutes replying to your post and the site crashed and I lost the post.  It was a clear note to me that trying to convince people that their thinking is wrong headed.
    In essence, it countered everything you said with stats that show we are going to absolutely the wrong direction.

    My concluding question was a simple one. I asked you if you are better off today than you were 4 years ago.
    If so, go to MSNBC and other places where MOPE is found.  If, on the other hand, you are like 99% of the population who are demonstrably worse of due to higher taxes, lower income, regulations, lay offs, payroll reductions, bankruptcies and depleted wealth, then you should be on this site. 
    But please do your homework before opining on the GDP, taxes, tax rates, tax revenues, the percent of the GDP that government spends (45%)
    I’ve made plenty of boneheaded statements on this site. But usually I do my research before I opine so that I have some backup.  People have hammered me for my math and understanding and I’ve taken that and learned from it.  A friendly suggestion from me to you, and I hold no animus towards you
    Don’t piss down my neck and than ask me to believe it’s raining.

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