The Coming Blow-Off Mania in Silver Will Be Breathtaking

launch rocket verticalBy SD Contributor AGXIIK:

The coming move and mania in silver will be breathtaking and will resemble the Tulip & recent Bitcoin manias.
Silver might take 10 months to peak and 2 months or less to retrace much of its price increase. It might be a $100 billion market in the US.
The market will be completely overrun and choked with silver, yielding an inventory that might not bleed off for years. The price rise will be fast; the drop will be fast was well.  That’s the way this always happens when smart money gets in first and dumb money comes in last.
Getting out at that inflection point will be a doozy; the ride heady.   Nearly everyone will be sucked in with dreams of becoming silver millionaires. Those who bought at $30-40 will be vindicated.
The price rise will be a Rhino Horn in shape. When the price increase hits about 80 degrees from the horizontal axis, the peak will be reached in short order. It will look a bit like the national debt chart of the last 60 years. Parabolic and then some. 
The price peak will be reached.  Check your heart at the door as the euphoria will be intoxicating and dangerous for your financial health.

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It’s funny about all the precious metal price rigging. I exited the stock market 2 years, clean and sober–to avoid that casino.  After going pretty much all in by early 2013, here we are again, thinking there was some asset safe harbor, proven wrong and at the effect of the same ghouls who play the stock market. This time the leverage is even greater than the stock markets.
This will end sometime in the near future. Reversion to the mean is a nearly immutable force of nature. While I am confident that silver will go to $100 an ounce something that I state is that silver will probably not rise significantly past $100 an ounce.

At $100 an ounce silver, the miners will start puking silver after ramping up production or opening fallow mines, trying to grab the price rises while they last, avoid sales of their product at a set price, producing not just millions of ounces but potentially billions of ounces. Silver at $100 will produce an insane, frantic buzz and rush, a race to the silver dealers.  All those ads on TV will be doubled and doubled again. People will be standing in line 3 deep outside the doors, cash in hand, to buy buy buy. It’ll make the 1981 silver $50 an ounce rush look like a walk in the park. Don’t stand in the way of the last entrants in this rush. You will be trampled.

People are far far more desperate today than in 1981. Those were pretty tough times. Our present and coming times will be tougher by a large degree. Fortune favors the observant person in uncertain times.
Every miner who’s spent nearly 3 years eking out a living, trying to break even and stay alive, will see $50 and $100 an ounce but, like any farming operation– yes, mining is farming the earth (farmers are price takers not price makers) the average Joe will be buying hand over fist in a frenzy to scoop up the last ounce of silver (or gold) produced by the miners until oversupply causes prices to drop rapidly.

$100 billion in accessible silver (1 billion ounces) will mean the 100,000,000 people in this country with $1000 to buy silver will be desperate to buy something of value. They’ll end up with 10 ounces. Not much of a stack but for some people it will seem like a godsend. It’s in our DNA to know that silver is real money. I chose $100 because it will not make the average Joe insane. Joe will be nervous and anxious to buy some. It’ll make him much more aware of the need to stack. But he will still be fairly rationale, mostly.

$500 an ounce will cause people to go crazy.
1 ounce of silver? $500 an ounce? That’s insane.
At that price we’ll be forced to work within circumstances more grave that trying to figure out what to do with our $500 an ounce silver.
Bitcoin went to $1,000 from $10 per DIGI-FIAT unit. That aroused some attention but most people were not tuned into that currency.
Silver? Yes, everyone know that assets. It’s hardwired into our genome.
Before you know it, the miners will have caught up with the scurrying rush for precious metals to fill the pockets of the late arrival stackers. They will push more billions of ounces into a market that will become saturated. Average Joe will rush to the game, frantically bidding up the price to $80-100 an ounce, but unlike stackers who have always been very early to the long game, acquiring silver at $20-30 an ounce, Joe will be left holding the $100 ounce bag. This price game will become exhausted once the last dollar is played into an market seriously oversupplied.

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That’s the way this always happens when smart money gets in first and weak or maybe dumb money comes in last. It may not be the worst thing for Joe though, because silver cycles will help mitigate the damage of buying at the tops. And silver is real money; tangible, fungible, long term wealth.
Remember when Apple was $12 a share? How about $700 a share? What is Apple really worth? Can you eat an IPad?
Silver will buy highly valued commodities when Apple has seen a 75% drop in value.

When corn, oil, silver, copper, housing, wheat or any other commodity reaches a saturation point, the supply of that item overflows the bunkers, silos and vaults. With silver’s puny market, the price will peak then drop like a rock when the last dollar is invested. Housing took 10 years to peak and 2 years to drop. It was a $30 trillion dollar market in the US.

Silver might take 10 months to peak and 2 months or less to retrace much of its price increase. It might be a $100 billion market in the US.
The market will be completely overrun and choked with silver, yielding an inventory that might not bleed off for years. The price rise will be fast; the drop will be fast was well. The traders who fuel this upward rush while be there trading the metal downward. The new short trading profits will be seen at every price level.  Silver miners will be left with the worst of worlds; a price drop that ends with them dumping into a downward price cascade. The paper trading vultures will make billions in spite of everything.

There’s nothing wrong with us working with these tides. If they profit; we profit. There’s no sin in that. It’s just good business for the early physical adopters who don’t have billions in capital reserves to play the markets upwards and then exit. Just because someone owns physical does not mean they signed a suicide pact with the market price as it goes down sharply.

Getting out at that inflection point will be a doozy; the ride heady. Even we stackers will probably do like we did 3 years ago when silver’s rise was a whirlwind. Nearly everyone got sucked in with dreams of becoming silver millionaires based on predictions of $200 silver. The train fell off the tracks with that one.
One good thing about this 3 year news cycle is that it brought hundreds of thousands of people out of their sleep walking mode, thinking about precious metals; working to increase their knowledge and being ready for the next stage. Those who bought at $30-40 will be vindicated. That was a lesson well learned and alone may have made the ride thus far worth the price of admission.

Call it our Phd in PMs. We all learned the hard way.
The cooler heads, like those well informed people on this site and others, will offer sage advice as to exit timing. The blog rolls will be filled to overflowing with advice. Some of it’ll be worth reading.

Getting out of silver at a point before the collapse in price will take some doing. On a personal level my plan is to sell maybe 20% of my stack, pay off the mortgage to reduce counterparty risks and have some cash left over. Then trade 35-50% into gold for easier stacking, figure out what else is worth buying or just hold the rest for long term purposes. By the time silver hits $100, the rest of the story will play itself out to our satisfaction.

Be assured, silver will be much more of a rocket ride since the market is so incredibly small. Demand will be so equally high. You all know how that evolves. Like anything else, the price peak will be reached.  We’ll be happy happy happy. Wariness is a wise policy in times of euphoria. Check your heart at the door as this euphoria is intoxicating; not good for your financial health.

The price rise will be a Rhino Horn in shape, giving the informed some good indications of when to exit. When the price increase hits about 80 degrees from the horizontal axis, the peak will be reached in short order. It will look a bit like the national debt chart of the last 60 years. Parabolic and then some.
Maybe moving to gold at that time will be wise since the yellow metal will assume its rightful status as the backer of currency in some countries and in the pockets of the people. Look east. 1,300,000,000 Chinese and 1,250,000,000 Indians can’t be all wrong. 40% of the world’s population senses something is wrong and like all living things that sense the coming storm, they seek higher ground.  Its little brother will tag along like a faithful companion.

Real money will work its way into the consciousness of the people.
Precious metals will assume their rightful status with the people as an asset of real value.
Some big investors in the paper paradigm will damaged, maybe beyond repair.
The owners of physical precious metals will be rewarded.

These are my speculations.
I based them on the rise and fall of all commodities, particularly ones like gold, silver and monetary copper with their 6,000 year histories. The move and mania will be breathtaking; almost Tulip Bulb or Bitcoin-like.
Other than food, nothing else has been around long enough to see the fruits of its changes in values like precious metals. Time and current events are on our side. Those attempting to control the prices are like King Canute telling the tides to stop their progress.
I may be wrong in some aspects but they are small in nature.
I am confident that time, tides and human nature will bear fruit for those with the patience to see this through.
Stay the course.
You will be rewarded for your wisdom of investing in silver and gold.

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Comments

  1. That’s all a load of BS. As long as TPTB have control, we won’t see that happening. Ever. Because the next stage will be a total chaos. Nothing in between. Anyhow, I am not selling mine. Maybe I’ll be able to barter, I do not know… But we won’s see any price increase in any real currency term. And TPTB are very determined. They control everything and THEY WON’T LET GO THAT EASILY.
    So good luck to us all.

    • What’s a load of BS? BTC at $1000 or silver actually getting past a 34 year old high of $50?
       
      Total chaos? Why? Letting gold and silver rise or to be revalued doesn’t have to involve any of that. In fact gold being revalued at 5 or 10K will actually help TPTB eliminate an enormous amount of debt away. I don’t understand why people think gold and silver going parabolic causes social upheaval. Never have. The USD getting shredded is another story.

    • silver going up. sorry

    • No, you missed my point. Silver going to $200-300 an ounce is not only totally realistic, it’s highly likely. AG isn’t off the mark at all. I respectfully disagree with your logic and outcome.

    • Of course it might happen, I just think the odds are very slim, especially in current environment. My strongest argument is the fact that TPTB have been executing great efforts to suppress metal prices for quite some time. Why should they give up now if they have all the FIAT they need at their disposal.
      This battle won’t be won just by sitting arround. Only in case of some extrodinary event the cards may be shuffled.

    • @LexLuthor:  The longer the suppression remains in effect the faster and higher the metals will reach.  Its just like inflation, sure you can delay for several years but at some point you must pay the piper.  I’d highly suggest you watch the Shadowstats interview which was posted on Monday:  http://usawatchdog.com/2014-crisis-in-dollar-will-trigger-inflation-john-williams/
      I believe the budget battle is scheduled again in February and that will be the tell-tale sign.  Buckle up as its about to get bumpy!  Real bumpy!

    • I am always amazed.  Give AG kudo’s for a real great piece of work.  Everyone clamors to KNOW everything, down to the decimal, is so destructive, IMO, to real strategic thinking.  I will not claim to be a strategic thinker, but I claim to have a strategy, so the question is will I execute in the face of everything AG talks about.  I don’t know but I think so.  I know I am far more likely to do so, by having this plan, run over in my mind thousands of times : “Acquire a target, take off the safety, line up the sights, breathe in slowly, start a wee pendulum swing back and forth across the target, setting up your timing, start letting out a half a breath, and squeeze steadily on the trigger, counting backwards, and two things will happen.   You will be surprised when the round goes off, and  you will nail your target.”  Yeah we fight as we are trained, so I will work to make that happen.
         I think there is real wisdom in not letting off your whole stack on this next event AG describes.  My advice to me, is to dedicate % of my Core Stack( for inheritance purposes) say 1/3, and lock it down NOW, dispersed and all but distributed.  My core stack is gonna be stuff dedicated to each kid according to their tastes.   MY trade stack will be only ASE’s & CSL’s.  I will feed 1/2 my trade stack into the chaos in two parts, 1/2 when the Weekly RSI crests the Overextended level, and the other 1/2 once the MACD becomes unsustainable (80* up curve as AG says).  The remainder I don’t hold for inventory, will be dribbled into the mix as close to the top as I can, assorted different nationality coins that the masses will be grateful to have, as silver.  The remainder of my TRADE STACK, will be 2/3 swapped into gold, based on the GSR at the time.  I will be keeping 1/6th of  my TRADE STACK @ close hand.  Last, once I have hit that 80* up curve AG talks about, I will begin to track ZSL the SHORT SILVER ETF, and and according to such measures that I keep, begin picking up CORE Positions, I will sell out later.  
      I am a great tracker, but lousy predictor and damned tired of all the Bullshit about when and where we are going to hit zillions of $$ per oz, yadda, yadda, yadda, which is why I pick stocks, and track the markets to figure out where the hell I am.   That kind of approach makes sense to me and you can get it @ http://denaliguidesummit.blogspot.ca/2014/01/gold-miner-breadth-oscillator-what-is.html by signing upfor PEAK PICKS, no algo, no risk, all human, all TA, all the time.
        AG, The Doc and all the contributes here deserve credit for their hugh contribution and big balls that make it possible.  I like to dream of the prices we MAY get, but I like to count the profits I make as well, in the here and now.  Does that make sense?
      After years of doing and hearing all this bullroar, I figured I had to come up with a way of making $ense of all the movement.
      Its like the feelings of futility I get watching two teams tear up the turf btwn the 40 yrd lines with no score, for 13 yrs, where the money made was lost again.  I’d rather win the game with field goals than wait for the 4th qtr Hail Mary pass.
       
      Best to all honest investors,
       
      DG

    • @Bay of Pigs
       
      “I don’t understand why people think gold and silver going parabolic causes social upheaval.”
       
      Maybe it’s more likely that social upheaval will cause gold and silver prices to shoot up rather than the reverse.  If there is some sort of social upheaval in progress, for whatever reason, then it is likely that those who do have some wealth will be looking for a safe haven for it during such a time of crisis.
       

  2. IF the dollar TOTALLY COLLAPSES, silver WILL go to four digits.  That’s a certainty.  The only question is what will the FIRST digit be???? The other event to push silver that high would be a war with China.

    • I believe the dollar won’t collapse for quite some time. It may go down slowly but it is going to be very hard to identify the decline since all currencies are beeing printed madly. So decline will be slow and defended by tons of paper printed by FED. At one point the FED might be the only US bond buyer but the dollar will still hold. Look at it now, we are not very far from that point but it seems like nothing’s happening AT ALL, at least at the surface where everybody’s observing. On the other hand no current establishement is willing to collapse this status quo, the profits are too high…
      The decline won’t be spectacular it will be very slow, giving TPTB enough time and gunpowder to suppress metals as they go. That is my greatest fear.

    • Watch the budget battle and value of the USD versus more stable currencies like Canadian or Swiss Franc.  When resistance breaks is when all the ride goes into reverse.  The only question is whether the metals get one last slam where gold goes below $1,000 as predicted by Precious Metal Pete before revaluation. 
      Many of the forecasters don’t believe we’ll make it into 2015 without seeing the effects.  Shadowstats (as an example) gives it 90% for 2014.  That’s quite scary in my opinion as these are hard core statisticians!! 

    • It used to be that we won’t make it into 2012, 2013, 2014, now it’s 2015 already? More likely 2025….

    • Collapse tends to be very slow… until it is not… and then it becomes very fast!  Collapse is not an event, it is a process, and it is a process with so many dimensions to it that it cannot be predicted accurately.  I like the slow-motion train-wreck analogy for this.  THAT a wreck will occur is pretty obvious.  WHEN / WHERE it will occur is not.  Because of this, we all buy or don’t buy the things that will ensure a minimal impact of this possibility on ourselves and our families.  Choose wisely because when it counts we are likely to only get ONE shot at this.
       

  3. AG…Like you I expect silver will soar before gold does.  The challenge, like you said, will be to identify when silver has peaked and is retracing.  Perhaps, at that point the traditional ‘silver to gold ratio’ of appx 18:1 might be a useful yardstick.  If silver gets to 12:1, that might be a bit frothy and perhaps a good time to convert physical silver to gold.

    • AG Emailed me some figures that pretty much agree with your GSR, Mr. @UglyDog
      It also coincides with my last post! 
      Perhaps we are ALL Correct? lol
       
      Let’s see if THIS posts. 
      NSA is on AG’s case tonite it would appear…
       

    •  On Tue, Jan 7, 2014 at 4:58 PM, AGXIIK wrote:

      I can’t log on to SD by my guess is $100 and maybe 20% past as the rocket passed the apogee  then a very quick drop, like silver in 2011.   that suppression, the rigging of 1981 and what happened when oil went from $60 to $140 and then back to $30 in the last year or so of G Bush regime

      fast up—with the last $50 in the last 2-3 months then a peaking.  drop by 35-50% then maybe another rise.  That head and shoulders is commonplace everywhere

      maybe you can put my answer on SD since I am blocked for some reason

       

      RGR writes:


      SO your $100-120 New Nominal Peak will have a new “Mean” somewhere around $50-60? 
       
      Sounds great, I will post this to SD! (awaiting your verity on this new mean)

      RGR, that is my expectation.  While I am no math brain I’ve see dozens of charts that show a large increase—such as 100-300% of a stock or commodity and then a back off of 35% or even 50%. Many of these charts are reviewed after I found myself on the wrong side of a stock trade, reading the chart that showed me my major mistake.
       With silver at $100 the price drop could mean a reversion to $65  or even $50. The extreme price rise in 1981 and its extraordinary drop was something a bit different that now but there are parellels.
       The Hunts were crushed by the silver price repression, the margin calls that forced silver to be dumped by the MOZ and the need of the Fed and ESF to support the dollar and petro dollar after Nixon did his number by taking us off the gold backing. Remember that Jim Sinclair was called in by Volker to manage a $1 billion loan used to work its price repression and damage to the Hunts and silver.  Warren Buffet got the same treatment when he bought 129 million ounces of since via JPM around 2001-2002.
      I see something a little like this as the PM prices are being fiercely repressed, like the 1975-1976 time period, when gold and silver were knocked down by nearly 50% prior to the major run up . 
      After that time period the price raced upward for a couple more years unit it hit that spike.  As I recall, silver went from $16 to $50 in 37 days.
      Like the race upwards from $8 to $40 from  2009 to 2011, that was a huge jump which leads me to believe that the price increase just reflected normal silver (and gold) appreciation that was seen from 2002 with a price of about $4 (right when Buffet made his 129 MOZ buy)  to $16-ish an ounce in 2007.
       It went up 300% or so then WHAM, down to $8, a 50% retracement
      (I called that a fear factor liquidation event when every asset was being dumped in that Lehman crisis). 
       From there the  stock market and a race to hard assets took off. Housing, equities  went up substantially but precious metals ramped 400% or more 
       Silver to $50  Sold to $1,910.  Since then we went down with rigging pressure to a 60% decline in silver to $20.  60% in the last 31 months.   Sheesh he says. But it’s take nearly 3 years to knock these prices down to present levels.  Are the big guns out of ammo?  Maybe getting a little shot on shot and shell?  Every attempt to do real harm in the lasts 6 months has produced modest results
      A 60% hit  like this should be followed by a release upwards if nature is allowed to take its course
      I think that human nature and the math of these cycles with Fibonnaci numbers and other cyclical pressures run pretty much the same way.  Even rigged markets respond to the human animal and animals are what are doing this to our favorite metals. And they are predictable despite the attempt to be unpredictable because
      people and math at this level are pretty much the same.  The cycles  with their ups and downs follow patterns if we look at them long enough
      I am like Ranger in the 2 year cycle.  We were all talking about this in 2013 but Ranger does a huge amount of chart watching. I expect that he sees patterns that give him some inclinations to the 2015 time period.
       I would be inclined to take his word on this over something that might happen in 2014  But 2014 could see a movement back to $35, a bit of downward pressure and then another race to the top
      Doug Casey’s great silver chart showing about 12 years of silver price movement, predicted the $40-50 spike taking place in April May of 2013 did not happen.
        What happened then? 
      Silver and gold started to rise.  We saw $30-32  for silver and then WHAM, the huge smack down of gold and silver;  $400 an ounce and silver by $6, 8 and even $10 an ounce to $18 depending on your 2013 time lines.
      Those prices were getting away and someone; the ECB, ESF, Fed or China hit hard and sent them to the dog house.
      China benefited. 30% discount on phyzz.
       COMEX and LBMA are being depleted so the paper song and dance may not have the horsepower or phyzz to last this entire 2014
       
      Silver $20 to $50 is 150%   Not a large increase.  Been there.
       $50 to $100 an ounce after a brief breathing spell that brings more and more people to the silver buying table is my best bet.  At $50 we are all above water.  At $100 we are golden
      I composed the SD post on Saturday and spend about 2 hours rereading and correcting it for what I think makes sense.  From my sense, at least, and since I can’t get on the site due to the damage from the DNS,
      this bit of thinking seems to hold to my original assumptions
      And, as I will always state, if I am wrong I get to wear the DA hand, replete with Jester bells.   Cheers
       
       (From AGXIIK, he seems to be NSA-blocked from SD  :(  )

       

    • More from AGXIIK (w/RGR as interviewer)  ;)
      RGR Wrote:
       

      I’m a bit bipolar on your SILVER Run-up without Gold, 
      I can see it if they lose control in the tighter market. (SILVER) 
      But they cannot afford to lose GOLD. They can spin SIlver to the moon, lying 
      about WHY it went Parabolic. Gold??? Not so much. If GOLD Takes off, 
      GAME OVER for TPTB! 
       
      I see the possiblilty that your scenario may occur, but they are trying to 
      keep the lid on BOTH Silver and Gold, and TIGHTLY. 
       
       
      AGXIIK Answered:

      gold will drag silver upwards  but silver doesn’t haven’t the precious metal horsepower to drag (push?-rgr) gold
      silver is $20 billion now and $50 billion later.  gold is $100 billion  with china buying 2,000 tons a year
      It could be $500 billion if gold hits $5,000 and drag silver to $80-100
      China’s gold hoard could become worth $1.6trillion if their stack is 10,000 tons and gold with $5000 an ounce
       
      silver will chase it up like when gold was $1,910 and silver was $50  GTSR was about 38 to 1
       

  4. “On a personal level my plan is to sell maybe 20% of my stack, pay off the mortgage to reduce counterparty risks and have some cash left over. Then trade 35-50% into gold for easier stacking, figure out what else is worth buying or just hold the rest for long term purposes.”
     
    Yeah, been wondering what to do if it does rocket in the 100+ range.  No mortgage to pay off….no other debt…don’t need a new vehicle…..already put enough solar in over the last 5 years that generates more than we use…..seems silly to put a hard asset into paper fiat just because it DOES buy more paper…..no kids to leave it to….
    SO what to do ?  I’m open for advice……

    • @Just Observing
      I like the idea of buying GOLD. I also like the idea of a short sale at the peak, and then buy MORE, 
      at a LOWER Price than I sold. Making the stack BIGGER. If this scenario works out, one can make
      money on Silver’s primary rise, and then again when Silver & Gold both takeoff. But, that event, 
      (unless I am mistaken, correct me @AGXIIK) will be when the SHTF comes to town…

    • Let’s play some Texas Hold’em????

    • In case of a simultanious stock market crash, you could cheaply buy some shares, or land or something. It depends what asset class will be a matter of crash when metals rise.
      Do not assume the World will stop. A new cycle will begin and economy will recover once the problems are solved one way or the other…
      I’d exchange my silver for gold and keep 50% in gold and 50% in most devalued assets at the time.

    • “…..seems silly to put a hard asset into paper fiat just because it DOES buy more paper…..no kids to leave it to….  SO what to do ?  I’m open for advice……”
       
      I hereby offer my backyard as a safe haven depository for any gold or silver that you have but aren’t sure what to do with.  :-D

  5. So, Mr. @AGXIIK, this article has EVERYTHING. 
    Except 2 items, 1 small and one HUGE. 
     
    #1 (small) This article has no W.A.G. (Wild @$$ Guess) but we can fill in the blanks ourselves. Good Move! ;)
     
    #2 (BIG Omission) No prediction on a reverted mean! I NEED THIS! At least give an “outhouse guess” to jump-start the dialog  :D
    Or this guy will be having a few words with you lol

    • RGR…My thoughts on a reverted mean are posted above.  I’m thinking a hard number is not appropriate because how high gold /silver go will depend on how much fiat money is ultimately created. Price of gold will at some point reflect gold’s value measured against the fiat money supply.  Silver will be a function of that number. 

    • I saw that, makes sense. 
      But if a guy gives a specific number for a peak, a reverted mean should be easy. 
      I personally think something above $50 would be a “reverted mean”. Especially 
      if we are looking at a new nominal high of $100+ as a peak to a Silver-Only Mania. 
      I have my doubts as to a ‘Silver Only Mania’ but it seems plausible. If TPTB lose 
      the Silver markets, they will hang onto GOLD for dear life! Plausible? Yes. 
      Probable? Not as likely. That’s just my 2 oz worth, so that and a U$D Fiat Toilet Paper 
      certificate wil buy you a cup of coffee  ;)

  6. Should the above described event occur(and Im relativley sure it will), and we stackers decide to liquidate, I believe ASE`s and junk will be more highly prized, and the premium we paid for these items will seem well worth the while. However I don`t believe as sellers we will get any more money for proof`s.

  7. :)

  8. I wouldn’t sell @ 100 an oz. @ 500, I might part with a few to do some extra prepping (needful things like extra food & solar gear) so TPTB can’t force the rest of them from my hand @ 500 when tshtf! If the price were to reverse as a result of mines ramping up production, I’ll take the long side of that, same game as now! Selling my stack isn’t going to happen without a knock down, drag out.. I think borrowing against it is the better way to go. Like they do in India.

    • “I think borrowing against it is the better way to go. Like they do in India.”
       
      So, you think that hypothecating part of your stack is a good idea?   ;-)

    • @Ed_B: I prefer to think of it as an equity asset. If I sell it some one will want to tax me and my stack gets smaller. But, if I leverage it for something I can make a profit with/on  later…. I can get what I’m after AND keep the stack and avoid the taxes.

    • @RocketsRedGlare
       
      Somehow, that all sounds good to me but also a bit like having one’s cake and eating it too.  Many people sell a little silver or gold here and there and in small amounts such that they remain below the tax radar.  Not advocating, just sayin’.  ;-)
       

  9. WELL NOW After being off the site since 10 AM Monday and 10 hours intermittently trying to log in I finally found an anonymizer search engine called http://www.hidemyass.com I tried startpage, anonymouse and newipnow but they were not working
    I know Doc and his people are working hard to get things back up and running so thanks to RGR for posting a couple of comments.
    This is not the worst guess I’ve made and I’ve given a year for this to unfold. We can check back Jan 2015 and see if my DA hat gets some use Cheers

    • Great article AGXIIK.  Its great to see optimism in this bear market.  I wish the silver market would reflect a little of this optimism.  Go to KWN.  You got Ron Rosen on again with his take.  He says gold and silver has bottomed for sure and will go thru the roof very soon.  We are all going to be vindicated in the near future.  Of course, he has been saying this for several years.  And of course we have Admiral Sprott saying we will see 2000 dollar gold this year as well as silver blowing by 50 dollars with ease.  And, we have my psychic Cheri Mancuso saying that silver will be the new gold this year, going parabolic in the spring.  According to her silver will triple the current price.  How in the hell do you guys know all this?  Hope you are right.  And, of course, we have John Williams saying that we will start hyperinflation this year(90% chance).  That will surely blow up the price of gold.  Damn, this is going to be a great year. Oh, and don’t forget Jim Willie and Pastor Lindsay Williams. We have a global currency reset coming soon as well. Don’t want to leave anyone out.

    • Not that you will need this… but here it is… 
      DA Hat LOL

  10. Just an FYI My attempts to log on were blocked at my side of the internet. My ISP blocked access in their servers. So maybe I’ve P.O.’ed someone. SD is a VERY popular site that sticks under the saddle of TPTB like a huge burr. Good for SD and TND

    • I concur, Brother AG.  I’ve been having the very same problem as you and for about the same time-frame.  Kudos on finding anonymizer that finally worked.  I was using StartPage and finding no joy there.  :-(
       
      Thanks to Doc & Co. for getting this all sorted out.  Hope that it stays sorted.  The loss of my daily SD fix was more cold turkey than I could stand!  Another day of it and I would have had to bust open the whisky stash.  ;-)

  11. Same ole Yada, Yada, different year. The Silver bus stop that we all have waited at so long for the Silver Bus, gets a new 2014 driver but has the same old route as the last driver. Constantly having flats, running out of fuel, getting lost, but most important, never arriving. Okay, gimme some more BS to make us all feel better.

    • Why don’t you just fuck off?

    • Yes, anyone that speaks of reality should just fuck off…. and call them some names…. really makes your argument sound credible Piggy.  Piggy, lets make this interesting instead of just going back & forth in BS silvertard blogs. Lets make a 100,000 bet that silver doesn’t break 50 by Dec 31 2014. I am willing to wire to skybet, let me know how you feel about this.

    • C’mon guys keep it civil.  Everyone on this site should be metals or miners investors so we’re all on the same side here. 

    • …so sayeth the resident curmudgeon…  ;)
      @Ranger
       
      It seems to me that AG cited some of your study! 
      I has to happen SOMETIME, but secretly I hope you are right old friend! 
      More time is BETTER. 
       
      AGXIIK wrote:
      I am like Ranger in the 2 year cycle.  We were all talking about this in 2013 but Ranger does a huge amount of chart watching. I expect that he sees patterns that give him some inclinations to the 2015 time period. I would be inclined to take his word on this over something that might happen in 2014  But 2014 could see a movement back to $35, a bit of downward pressure and then another race to the top
      Now here is a cartoon or 2 of our favorite resident (insert your favorite descriptor)

    • …and…

    • Darnit! Here’s the one…

  12. not this year Ranger.
    Next year, 2015.
    Like you said, this is a two year haul.
    I accept that.

  13. Treated myself to 7.5oz asw in dimes and a few quarters. Need to get back to stacking a little every month while it is cheap. Once the price rises I won’t be buying much

    • @MaryB
       
      “Once the price rises I won’t be buying much”
       
      If silver prices do truly go parabolic, a lot of us won’t be buying much of it.  Good idea to get it while it is not hot.  :-)

  14. Ranger The link didnt connect Maybe due to the DNS problems with SD today. Is this the John Williams of shadow stats?
    I am not thinking this silver and god spike will be driven by inflation like the 1981 spike that was partly driven by the inflation of 8-12% from 1978 to 1981 or so. Inlfation will drive people to precious metals once inflation can’t be denied. People flock to precious metals when they fear their paper money becomes valueless. When the people lose confidence in their currency they run to anything that holds value. WHen Nixon gave the stink finger to gold in 1971 the curtain was pulled on the dollar and oil went through the roof So did PMs Oil’s running $90 to $100 a barrel. That’s could be driver to precious metals
    we have at least a year to see how it plays out

    • I respect you, AGX, as I respect the Doc….but…

      Are you saying that in your mind $100 Ag is the pinnacle of the bull market we’ve been witnessing?
      Perhaps I’m misunderstanding, but if I’m not…
      $100 silver means we all made a huge mistake.  A mere 400% move from here means that we could’ve had as meaningful a gain in many S&P 500 companies, or blue chip stocks had we bought in 2009.
      $100 silver means the banks won, and silver will be suppressed for decades.
      $100 silver means that this monetary metal isn’t a monetary metal.  A few billion ounces in the world we can buy, a few hundred billion $ of silver is nothing, nothing…..in the world monetary order.
      The 1980 $50 price of silver…….adjusted for inflation is $500 today. Furthermore, silver reached the $500 price when I was born without the world going off the edge of a cliff.
      $100 silver means, that the best silver could ever do is reach 20% of its 1980 high.  Unimpressive.
      $100 silver is what other silver non-bulls like Jim Sinclair are saying…
      $100 silver, far from being a breathtaking top, would be the worst let down in bull market history…

    • Hi Cle!
      This is a predicted interim rise, not the moonshot that everyone wants. 
      It is due to the difficulty that TPTB are having in suppressing the PMs 
      markets, particularly Silver. CRIMEX and the equally corrupt LBMA are 
      nearly tapped out, and if they cannot deliver (default) this will happen. 
      See posts near the top, for a better explanation. 

    •  
      “The 1980 $50 price of silver…….adjusted for inflation is $500 today. Furthermore, silver reached the $500 price when I was born without the world going off the edge of a cliff.”
       
      Really?  The numbers I have read say that the $50 price max in 1980 translates more to $150 today, not $500.  Even the BLS inflation calculator (http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm) shows $50 in 1980 as having the same buying power as $141.43 does today.  Not that the BLS is a hugely trusted source for info or anything but this does match up pretty well with multiple other sources I have read on-line.
       
      Since when has silver ever reached the $500 mark?  Not that we had dollars back then but during the sack of Troy?  lol
       
      As to going off the cliff, perhaps that is “a work in progress”, as they say?  It won’t be $500 silver that sends us into the abyss, it will be hurtling into the abyss that causes a $500 or more silver price.
       

  15. I do not think you are going to see a blow off top in silver. Silver purchasing power will increase. Why? because as the economy continues to roll over, silver will be in huge demand as money once again. Silver eagles will be traded like 1000.00 bills. Silver will be in circulation performing it’s God intended function as REAL MONEY. The US dollar will not survive what is coming. There will be no blow off top. what will matter is purchasing power and what one ounce will buy. It will not be priced in dollars but GOODS.

  16. Don’t forget TPTB are supposed to have an exit plan.
    IMO they will utterly crush PMs and Miners followed by an overnight revaluation of GOLD!
    Silver will be treated as a commodity and miners will be nationalized. There will be no gold standard, but gold will be seen as means to preserve one’s wealth and greatly reduce national debt.
    Think about the benefits for TPTB …
    And if you think the US cannot do that because the do not have any gold anymore you are correct. The BRICS or the IMF will announce the revaluation.

  17. I found the article entertaining but I’m not sure how realistic it is. During the last run to $49 I didn’t know anybody personally who was involved with silver and besides CNBC it wasn’t a major topic being discussed in the MSM. The silver bashers were calling it a speculative bubble but was it really ever in a bubble? Contrast that with Bitcoin today where it is a dominant topic on social media sites and everybody and their mother has an article out about it. I work with some guys right now that are getting into Bitcoin and Litecoin mining. They are investing thousands into mining servers. That tells me that Bitcoin is in a mania phase right now at $1,000. Where will it end up? It may go to $5,000 before reverting to the mean back near $1,000. It’s anybody’s guess really which is how I interpret this article. Nobody knows where silver is headed but what I do know is that right now it is woefully undervalued using any metric you want to use. It’s ratio to gold, it’s ratio to the fiat money supply, its thousands of uses as an indispensable industrial metal, the list goes on and on. For those reasons I continue to comfortably accumulate silver at current levels. 

    • @gogetter1132
      Hey man! How’s it going?
      I tend to think your BTC idea is correct, but it will have a higher “mean” than $1000.
      It seems to be in a pattern like THIS: (I’m hoping, and Mining!)  The next mean might be $2000
       

    • @underGRound 
      That certainly would not surprise me at all. I remember when I thought that $32 was the mean for silver and I would always buy if went under that level. Whoever thought we would be sitting here around $20 all things considered? I have been watching BTC go up since it was around $42; regrettably I never pulled the trigger and bought even just a few of them. For those involved I hope it keeps going up as I certainly don’t have anything against BTC. 

    • I hear ya! 
      I gotta get back to work and start buying again ;)
      (Silver that is!) I’ma gonna be mining BTC, not so much buying it. 
      I thought about buying BTC @$300 so I’m regretting that now too LOL

    • IMO, it is more likely that Bitcoin will either be taken over by various governments or banned outright.  In either case, the mania phase will end and Bitcoin will become yet another flash in the pan.  Just remember… in ANY mania that has ever occurred, some people have made a lot of money.  That is not the mean, however.
       

  18. I don’t get it, why are you guy wasting your Fiat on Silver, when you should be buying Gold (Sorry Doc). These prices at the moment for gold are LOCKED IN. They can not go lower.
     
    Now, I love Silver. I actually enjoy buying it which is more than I can say for gold. But, thinking about this, which of the two is a better preserver of wealth, that, at the end of the day will not be so volatile. Gold.
     
    Forget about the Ratio Analysis. The market reckons it should be 58-1…what can we do? education as we all know is poor.
     
    The market will not change this view that gold/silver hovers around the 50-60 ratio mark.
     
    Maybe I am just a Jealous limey who wishes he could handle silver without messing about with VAT. I assure you I am not. As said, Silver has been a good buy on paper for a long long long time. But, if your moving money from Silver into Gold, when the time is right, may as well do it now. $1215 per troy Oz, is mentally low. Fill your boots.
     
    Heck, if you really need silver in your life, buy gold, and then sell it for silver, Gold is going to make you a return THIS YEAR!

    • @WaitingForSilver: The reason I choose Ag over Au is I don’t believe there is a “market” not a free one anyway. The fixes and manipulations and HFT computers selling futures back and forth have driven the SGR to 60 to 1, not the market. I think it will end someday and a real and honest price will be found. Ag’s 150+ years of price suppression has completely distorted peoples thinking about silver, even as money. When I see national mints are selling 50 Ag coins to every 1 Au coin, I know people see Ag as money (not to mention private mint sales of Ag)! All I had to do was decide which was better money. The bankers and governments don’t want it to be money but, people still do, that’s the market I see. I see a 9 to 1 S/G natural in the ground ratio and a 1 to 5 above ground ratio and a supply v demand ratio that I can’t ignore. If TPTB want to continue, then it’s a gift and I’ll take it! Ag is the essential metal, the better money.

    • @RocketsRedGlare,
       
      Oh don’t get me wrong, I am sitting on a mountain of silver. Just that I think that at the moment, Gold is a better buy option, because it will go up by end of year, not next year.
       
      I hear a lot of Ratios of what proportion of Silver to Gold there is, how Silver is an industrial product and being used up, heard all the stories of how there is a shorter quantity of Silver above ground than below, etc etc etc.
       
      But as eggs are eggs, Silver, since the Spanish Conquered the Americas has never been the same again. I always based Silver on being 15-1 to gold in nature.
       
       
      I did think about going into Rhodium, Palladium and Platinum. What stopped me? Shift-ability.
       
      When the shit hits the fan, how hard would it be to shift a Platinum based metal compared to a monetary metal.

    • @WaitingForSilver: As I’ve read many of your posts I knew you understood all those reasons! Which is partly why I replied. What I don’t understand is why so many times those who know all this still choose gold anyway (or as in the case of Jim Sinclair say Ag isn’t money at all). I can see owning some gold NP, bit coin too. But for me, I have to do what I think is best with limited funds and that leaves Ag as the best option.

    • Gold or silver…that is the question.  I do both because I don’t really know.  On one side central banks and gov’ts around the world traffic in gold not silver.  However, there are no above ground hoards of silver like there are of gold.  But, then significant wealth held in silver takes up a lot of room and is not easily moved.  Gold provides a denser wealth accumulator.
       
      I think TPTB will lose control of silver first only because they don’t have the physical stock piles to fall back on.  And in their view silver is not the key that gold is.   I see silver breaking out first.  And judging from the meteoric rise of bitcoin, the moonshot in silver could be spectacular.  But, like any price surge they tend to over shoot.  The silver to gold ratio may be a way to guage when the the price of silver is overextended.

    • @waiting
      From your perch high atop a mountain of SILVER, your comments make sense. 
      For a small stacker, Silver is a better bet. I’d bet an ASE against a Krug that SILVER 
      outperforms Gold in the next run up. It always does, in an extended bull phase. ALWAYS. 
      around 2.5:1 and many days during the 2011 run-up it was more. Much More. Trading
      Silver for Gold at around 40:1 is my call. Maybe as low as 35:1 but start setting up for 40:1
       
      @UglyDog
      “…TPTB will lose control of silver first only because they don’t have the physical stock piles to fall back on.”
       
      This assertion, I agree with. Losing control of SILVER First.
      But IMO the lack of phyzzz is an illusion, as they are simply switching stock from one hand to the other, 
      or from West to East. Didn’t “lord rothschild” start the HKMEX? Andwhen that was publicized, they shut 
      that branch down and opened up in Shangai? Sleight of Hand… all the war around! 

    • If gold is a more legitimate “money” than silver, that a score for silver. Forms of money and currency can change. Even overnight.
      Gold is only useful to look pretty (not my taste actually) or to represent a certain fiat cash value per gram or ounce or tonne.
      There is so much gold out there, for it looking pretty, there is plenty. And it’s not currrently used to back fiat money, or hardly so.
      Thus, gold could lose 90% of its current price, and it would be nothing strange. 
      Current price happens to be just around mining cost. Same on the silver side. So the COST ratio is also 1 to 50-60. Never mind that the mined ratio is 9. To refine a gram of gold apparently costs 5 times more for a given amount of raw ore processed.
      Yeah, I can see gold being revalued overnight, and it could be 4-fold or crazier. Silver would be left behind, PERHAPS. But not for long. Investment demand will dry the market up in a matter of weeks, price to the sky. Ratio? I hope it will undershoot 10.
      But before we’re there, gold could be suppressed to much that mines close. Getting gold will become harder than ever. Price could go up 2-fold or 3-fold before we even get to an overnight revaluation event.

      When it comes to gold supply, the fact that the west is still giving up gold without reserve, makes me think more and more that there may be MORE out there than we’ve been let on to (dis)believe. Silver, has been keeping up with rising demand also. But WHERE would more silver be stored? It takes up 110x as much space per say $1mil than gold does. Gold is a small briefcase size for a million, silver is a modest pallet of it. You can’t just hide a couple billion fiats worth of silver in a stock pile somewhere. It would be so big, word would get out.
      Silver looks much more like to ever getting into shortage territory. And it looks more likely than ever. No silver coins in circulation to mention, decades of low recycling and plateauing mine production. More and more industrial and medical applications. More and more living people, needing processed silver to go about their lives.
      Exiting at $100 would be a pretty big fail. I did not get into physical for a measly $100. Especially not if inflation gets to us first.

    • RGR…Just saying CB’s, gov’ts, and the Vatican have known stockpiles of gold.  Silver is not stockpiled by those same entities.  But, your point about the Rothschild’s having control in the East, too, is a good one.

      XC…It makes more sense to me that TPTB will lose control of silver BEFORE gold is revalued. In fact fear of losing control of gold, too, will be a large art of the rational of revaluing gold in an orderly fashion.

    • @UglyDog
      I should have been more specific. 
      I meant the Gold Sleight-O-Hand is an illusion. I switched gears on ya, sorry  ;)
       
      @XC Skater
      As further fuel to your premise:
      IMO, having SILVER as more of an Industrial asset than a monetary asset works in our favor, 
      in the context of a bull market. If needed, Silver can rise above Gold. There are so many sheeple 
      that have never bought Silver and likely never will, until it is hard to get, so it seems to me that 
      TPTB have the result that they want. We can be sure that “they” have stacked tons of SILVER 
      in preparation for the upcoming revaluations and moonshots.
       
      @AGXIIK‘s predicted Silver Solo Shot makes sense too, TPTB can use it to their advantage to 
      create a lot of weak-handed holders that will sell off after the peak. They are pulling all the levers…
       

    • @RRG
       
      “The bankers and governments don’t want it to be money but, people still do, that’s the market I see.”
       
      That is a wise choice, IMO, because none of us will be buying what we need for either the Gov or the banks.  We will be buying from local citizens who have what we need.
       

  19. Mainstream media in the UK warning of coming bail-ins:
    IMF paper warns of ‘savings tax’ and mass write-offs as West’s debt hits 200-year high
    Link below for full article:
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10548104/IMF-paper-warns-of-savings-tax-and-mass-write-offs-as-Wests-debt-hits-200-year-high.html
     

  20. Great piece AGXIIK, and I think Silver will have many rhino horn episodes in the next 20-30 years before it gets mined out. Unfortunately for me, I won’t be able to sell any of my stash, the coins and bars are too beautiful, I am too attached.

  21. “Those who bought at $30-40 will be vindicated”     How so?    After inflation adjusted gains and taxes, the return on investment is not there.
    Investors would be better off finding the next Netflix, and making a paper capital gain, much less hassle.
    Also, US investors are never going to get involved with the silver market, not gonna happen.   Where have they been when silver went from $10 to $49 oz?    No where.
    I hate to break the news, but a move to $100 oz silver is NOT a mania, it’s nothing that exciting.  All this piece says to me is that AGXIIK has significantly lowered his expectations about everything he has preached.
    If you want to make some real money, buy some put options when the stockmarket starts tanking.

    • What is your interest in visiting this site?
       

    • @canadianstacker “What is your interest in visiting this site?”
      To view your avatar, and also see what type of profanity and insult Bay of Pigs uses when someone disagrees with him. LOL!
      I enjoy markets at the end of the day, but there are tons of conspiracy theories that are talked about as real facts around here,  readers deserve to know the difference between a theory and a fact.   
      Why do you visit?

    • @zman
      “To view your avatar”
      lol
       
      You also occasionally make some good isolated points, from a day trader perspective. 
      Most STACKERS are not, cannot, and will never be Day Traders. So SILVER reigns. 
      Using your rothschild trading strategy (and it is a good one) one can make huge profits 
      in a short time, but time is short! Here’s hoping you have a good exit strategy… 
      I know I do!  ;)

    • @zman thanks for the reply. I always new something was wrong with our economic recovery since the banking bailout of 2008. Seemed like pure theft to me and did not buy what the mainstream was selling.  I actually came across this site from posts on the Max Keiser blog a couple years ago. I enjoy stacking, coin collecting and prepping. I learn more by visiting sites and analysts such as silverdoctors, fgmr, bullion bulls Canada, Jason hommel, zerohedge, TFmetals report, eric sprott, Greg hunter, KWN, and marchas45 lol to name a few.
       

    •  I actually came across this site from a link from QueenBee’s financial blog.
      After I joined here, I invited Queenbee to come and post her views.  But because she had some contrarian viewpoints, she was rudely labeled a T.r.o.l.l. and went away.
      And then she deleted her link to SilverDoctors, so any new visitors to her blog may never know about our forum here.

    • @Mammoth  Is that QueenBee from Mish’s blog? Wow, I haven’t heard of her for 4 or 5 years now. You have a link to her blog?

    • @Bay_of_Pigs , Yes I have the link, but yesterday she announced that she is ‘retiring’ from her blog.
      I wish her well.
      http://queenbee-insidethehive.blogspot.com/

    • This site was great before the price dump and Doc started selling. Now that his interest is mainly on buyers, the articles have gone from informative to conspirator in nature. The numerous characters here that share the same IP address is concerning and makes me question authenticity of many comments and articles. This is the only reason I many of the truth tellers that get called trolls bother checking in and is very needed so the newbs don’t fall into the hype.

    • So you’re the “truth teller now? LMAO….God help us all if that’s the case. I doubt I would own even one ounce if I listened to your incoherent ramblings on gold and silver. And who are these “numerous characters” with different handles you speak of?

  22. cleburne 61 Good points I did not take those into consideration but will print your post. and review futher in relation to my thinking. If silver goes to $100 and so many bought at $30, that 200% or so increase would be modest at best. But it would be something.
    The subject of when to get in, out and what to do with our cash if we sell is really complex. Since it’s precious metals the emotions around those are heated. Part of our plan is to donate our estate to charity when we hop the twig. In between now and then well need some capital to handle expenses. We do not plan to work until we fall off the trolley. There is a time when we hag up the spurs and plan to convert some precious metals wealth to spendable cash. There are a lot of speed bumps between then and now. PMs seem to be a reasonable way to smooth those out. and we have a stack large enough to manage those.
    We own gold and silver in about the same value ratio, 60 to 1, to keep gold as wealth and silver as monetary stacks . It’s very unlikely that we will outlive even a part of our stack so we are comfortable with the plan. Think of it as a retirement plan that is removed from the paper market, even to our SDIRA.
    But at $20 and $1,200, our stack is about 30% less than purchase price. Time will work to our benefit because somewhere in the world there is a bull market in percious metals. Maybe we will move there part time but not for the forseeable future.
    Roughrook I read that article. It is just amazing to me that the IMF is actually waving the war flag, telling the people of Europe how they will expropriate the money of the people to balance the books. Small GDP countries steal the people’s money with guns and central banks. Big GDP countries have to do it in a more stealthy manner–Inflation, taxes and then WHAM, outright theft. We are closing in on the third option.
    IMF is DC headquartered so we provincials are probably in their gunsites too.
    Denaliguide points out how a sniper zeroes their target . It’s a slow process. The FIAT snipers may think they have the high ground and are well concealed. NOT!
    We have seen the enemy; idiots that they are they’ve given away their position. We can see they’ve laid the cross hairs on us. I can hear the controlled breathing as they start pressing the trigger for a clean break.
    If the sniper has you zeroed the best way to avoid getting shot is seek cover and concealment. Returing fire at distance might not save you. If you are not shooting you are moving. If you are not moving you are reloading. Cover and concealment keeps you alive to fight another day. You can be assured, no matter what happens to these prices, given that we can reload our favorite ammunition at decent prices, Charlie always offers a favorite advice. Keep stackin’ These SOBs are gunning for us.
    Lead futures are a good thing to have. I ‘ll get one day of sniper school in May

    • @ AG
      @ cleburne61
      I would have many things to comment about this very nice article (congratulations AG) but I really don’t have time. However I can’ wait for correct cleburne61 comment ”
      The 1980 $50 price of silver…….adjusted for inflation is $500 today.
      That made a shock for me since that seems enormous. Inflation have been more or less the same on the 2 atlantic shores during this last 30 years and I could not believe price x10 during this period (1000 %). So I made a check and found that 1980 $50 adjusted for inflation is $180 today
      http://www.usinflationcalculator.com
      Moreover, take into account $50 for maximum price in 1980 is not reliable. It stayed at this price only few hours (if not minutes). I prefer take the average price during few days around this spike. $40 seems more realistic
      Therefore 1980 $40 adjusted for inflation is $150 today.
      That’s a nice price, because it’s not nosense with my speculation for a silver price spike 100-200 $ somewhere on the window 2015-2018, and later may be 80-150 range. I will be not surprise to see  a 1:1 silver/oil ratio during the next decade. But speculations remain speculations… I traded currencies enough during years to know that a lot of events and surprises will happen to kick-up speculations.

  23. Most of the folks that come to this blog, not all, but many, invested in silver way too early.  At best, we are 30% in the crapper.  At worst, there are still a few folks that bought in near 40.  I also believe that when the markets turn around, many folks will not sell at the right time and the market will just turn and go back down and the damn move in silver will not be a blessing for many.   Thats just the way it is.  I for one will not ever forget this bear market we are in nor the damage it has done to my wallet.  We do not know when silver will turn.  But, I already have my first move in mind.  I will sell half of it when silver hits 49.  Then invest in gold if it seems appropriate at the time.  If silver continues its upward move I will then continue to sell in increments.  Maybe 20% at at time as it moves 3 or 4 dollars higher.  Until the majority of my silver is sold, and converted into gold.  I might keep a few oz of silver just for shits and giggles.  For me, this bear market has been a bitch so I will be very happy when things turn around and I can make some changes in the portfolio.  I believe that gold is for saving and silver is for speculating.  I didn’t understand this when I made my initial decisions to invest in silver.  Silver can hurt ya.  A lesson I will never forget.

    • Good point PK.  How one feels about the market today depends on when one ‘got in’, but that shouldn’t alter anyone’s judgment as to where things are at now.  People need to purge the emotions.  Fundamentals have only intensified.  Personally, I’ve been at this longer than most, not as long as some.  However, I am still buoyed by the confidence of real market professionals like Eric Sprott, Rick Rosen, John Williams, Jim Sinclair, James Turk, Peter Schiff,  Bill Kaye, etc all of whom have basically a similar read on the failing status of fiat money as I do.

    • I’d say the lot of which you speak, PK, got in too late! The bank$ter$ have not touched my buy in prices, 
      for the vast majority of my stack. (90%) 
      They can KISS IT! 

  24. Wow again !! I logged off for a few minutes and the Blue Meanies were back on my donkey. This time I logged in using http://www.newipnow.com they have a pretty broad spectrum of ip addressess world-wide to anonymize yourself and log in This is pretty wierd but I’m back.
    zman just when I thought you were starting to make a little sense your mistaken notions of what I posted here vindicate what I’ve been saying for years. You are consistent in your consistent wrong-headedness.
    I do have a good memory and can recite things from past posts, working to stay on topic and on my talking points.
    Your contentions are inaccurate but then you are a newbie to the site. Not that its an excuse but you have not been reading the posts and blogs of this site like some who have been here for nearly 3 years.
    My contentions are pretty consistent with my past posts. They do change in small parts as situations develop that force changes in all of our thought processes.
    As for my basic awareness, my stack, something that represents 95% of my asset base, is larger than you can imagine.
    It speaks for me and I for it. That is my nature. I put my money where my mouth is.
    My guns speak for me as well and when they bark they mean business. That is also my nature I am a straight shooter.
    When I’m wrong I admit it to any reader and learn from the wiser posters in my ongoing education process.
    You offer me nothing; convince me of nothing.
    In these vital matters I’ll let 6,000 years of history be my guide and guide my talking points.
    Trade options as you will. I did that for decades, making and losing millions but still kept a decent sum to invest into something that today make perfect sense. Precious metals. They keep my family safe. That family includes 10 other people to whom I have a close relationship even though they are not blood.
    Note in my post I said I stopped paper trading 2 years ago. It was addictive. Getting away from the wildly rigged paper trading markets saved me from that which is nothing more than a criminal enterprise where the unber banks pay a $2 billion tithes to the government as the price for their corrupt and completely criminalized actions. Then continue in their actions.
    If you think you know something about these markets because you have’nt been bitten or robbed by these thieves, then you are brazenly foolish and ignorant.If you’ve been bitten and continue to play your games with a nest of scorpions then you will eventually succumb to the poison.
    I fear for your family if you think you can outsmart these people. Even the MSM is beginning to wake up to the actions of the crony criminaist class as it roams the streets looking for fresh blood. On the other hand, if you are on the payroll of a large bank, like those hired by B of A to write disinfo and agitprop, then you will be chucked aside when your words no longer have worth to them.
    I refuse to be part of that misgotten market filled with thieves. I also shun those who are bad at math. They make ‘poor’ companions. Those who enter this casino now will rue the day they placed their bets.
    When the centrals banks are telling us they have plans to the wealth of the market players to balance their books and do so in full page ads, with sky writers to tout that message, the day is nigh that the ECB, IMF, FED, ESF and BOJ will jerk a knot in the tail of the unwary and the true believers. That will include you.
    I could say “repent and change your ways’ But your paycheck or whatever thing you get as value that compels you remain ill-educated
    must be more meaningful. You remind me of a recalcitrant child who is offered a vast education virtually free of charge yet you persist in playing video games. Those ain’t the real world, slick. They just give you an illusion you’re in control.
    Up your game Zman. I post for free and have a nearly infinite amount of time to do this—and counter your juvenile statements

  25. Been lurking here way too long, so time to chirp in finally. It’s my belief, for what it’s worth, that of the monetary metals silver will end up having the most value potential due to industrial consumption and decreasing grades. (Harder to find and not as much available) Not to mention historic monetary and investor demand. So I don’t see much point in shifting from silver to gold at the blow off tippy top at the peak of the 4th turning in 2020. But sell bits at peaks all along the way and invest proceeds accordingly. My thinking back in 2001 was to shift the appreciated metal into under appreciated useable land. Think farm land, outside of too much city influence, where the ability to produce subsistence will be much appreciated. You’ll understand what I mean if you’ve ever walked through a grocery store in awe at all the garbage that passes as food these days. In the meantime, take a long term view, the ptb still have a strangle hold on all markets. Rest assured their hold will collapse as has happened every time before.

    • You speak wisely. Some here @SD think this is a good idea, and some are already into real estate. I would do that but wait until the real estate prices collapse too. It is coming, they patched up the bubble of ’08 somewhat. Still inflated hugely…

  26. “Those who enter this casino will rue the day they placed their bets”     
    Yet, trying to time a market to make a sell for a PAPER profit in silver is just what you are advocating. “Getting out of silver at a point before the collapse in price will take some doing.”
    So please explain to the readers, what makes your trade/investment in physical silver in which you TRY and time to sell for paper profits makes you any different?  
    Also, let it be known, this is NOT much of a paper profit according to your projections (buying at 30oz and selling at maybe 85 oz), taken into account inflation and taxes.
    If one is looking for paper profits, why not look elsewhere?

  27. Here’s one more image for our resident curmudgeon.
    This is the reverse of a Russian 1-oz, three-ruble bullion coin:
     

  28. Maybe its true, maybe its not. Just cut the shit and own things banks dislike. Their eating their own tongues this very moment, soon they’ll have a belly full of blood thanks to Yellen.
    I was once a Bitcoin shit talker. I’ve evolved. Now I support PMs and Bitcoins. Many of you bugs should evaluate an evolution, so you can actively participate in a revolution from both fronts. Low tech and High tech will be striking at the root of our problems this year.
    If you sold your silver would you seriously want fiat in exchange? The real joke is on you if you do.

  29. As I see it, the ONLY positive for buying gold (over silver) is that silver takes up space to store.  Otherwise, buying gold puts the buyer in second place, with silver in first place.

    • There is another positive for gold.  It is a lot easier to transport significant wealth in gold than in bulkier silver.  One can hike or swim easily with $20,000 worth of gold in their pockets but don’t try that with silver.  History is filled with examples of people fleeing tyranny by sewing a few gold coins into the lining of their clothing and then using some of it to bribe border guards not to see them pass through the border.  If we ever have to bug out quickly, bringing up to a pound of gold with us would not be a hindrance.  One could bring a pound of silver instead but the gold is far more valuable per unit of weight.   Not that I dislike silver in the least.  I have a good stack of it but see no reason to limit ourselves to one or the other.  Both have advantages and this is not an either / or question, is it?
       

  30. I’m a believer in physical gold and silver.  I think having 5-10% in precious metals is smart.  I also think, since these markets are relatively small, the manipulation could go on for years.  There is almost no end to the amount of money the cartel will (print and) lose to suppress the prices.  Maybe it will end when there is no metal in their vaults.  Maybe not.  Nobody can do an accurate analysis when fundamentals don’t matter.

    •  ”Nobody can do an accurate analysis when fundamentals don’t matter.”
      Well, yes and no… lol
      We can do an analysis, but we must step out of the box to do it. Now as for what that means, 
      we are still working on it. :D

  31. I keep seeing and reading this from Paper Traders a lot lately, Trade and Investments Honestly, as a Physical Stacker, I’m not in it for Trading or Investing or Profit, I’m in it for SECURITY as it’s God’s Money and a voice within told me to stack, so Keep Stacking I AM
    P.S. Three years ago this started as a Stacker site, now it’s being over-run by Traders and their Trading, Investment techniques and theories. What are your real reasons why your here? I would really like to know as this is definitely a Stackers site.
    Most true Silver Stackers started with a feeling within and are being guided. Me in particular. So prices Up or Down it doesn’t matter to me because when the crap does happen I will have SECURITY. What about you? Amen
     

    • Yeah, I hear you Charlie.  I am a stacker.  But, I also think that if we play this thing right we can emerge on the other side with tremendous wealth.  So, I like to get the whole story.  And as it turns out, the Doc and I have similar tastes.  Things that interest him seem to interest me, too.

      I enjoy posters from different parts of the U.S. (like Maine) and different parts of the world, especially when they report on their local economies. Priceless info.

    • I thought this was a Slacker’s site, because I am slacking off from work and visiting SD when I should be working.

    • @Mammoth the first time I get serious and no Lol’s or LMAO’s you have to make me giggle. Lol

    •  ”I’m in it for SECURITY as it’s God’s Money and a voice within told me to stack, so Keep Stacking I AM”
      Same basic thing happened to me. Not an audible voice, but something really strongly telling me to look for something tangible. I first looked at GOLD, but instantly was turned off to that (too pricy). Silver once again caught my eye, and it just felt RIGHT. I took the dive. Never regretted it for a minute, unless you count regretting not buying more   :D
       
      Keep laughing, Charles! Loved that last video!

    • Of course, some of us here are hybrids, being neither all-in stackers nor pure paper mongers.  I invest in stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs.  These ARE investments.  I buy them at one price and then sell them at a higher price later on.  
       
      I have invested and I have traded.  I’ve made money at both but find trading less satisfying even if it can produce larger returns in less time.  When I invest, I am helping to build companies.  When I trade, I am merely churning paper.  
       
      At the same time I am making money in the market, I am also stacking.  I just do not see this as an either / or question.  My game is to increase my wealth and if I can do that in paper, then so be it.  As a small investor, it is not illegal, unethical, fattening, or immoral for me to invest.  
       
      2013 was an interesting year.  The 8% of so of my wealth that is in gold and silver suffered quite a loss… around 25% on paper.  Since I did not sell any metals in 2013, I have realized no actual losses.  The paper investments gained a bit over 24% so almost matched the metals performance.  Of course the paper investments are larger by about 8x than the metals, so the year was up nicely anyway.  This is the value of diversification and how it helps the small investor / stacker get through the pot-holes in the road to riches.  
       
      If it makes anyone feel better to hate me for what I do, go right ahead.  The profits I made and continue to make in paper will increase my stack size even further.  If at some point in the future, all the paper goes away, so be it.  My stack will be more than plenty to make up for that loss.  If paper doesn’t disappear in my lifetime, then so be that too and money will continue to be made on that front.
       
      Peace, All
       

  32. I stack, learn, listen and above all wait (not so patiently). This financial insanity cannot go on indefinitely. Endless QE…not likely. Continued metoric rise of Stock Markets… PE be damned full speed ahead, keep dreamin. I dont play games i dont know the rules of especially when those rules dont apply equally. I stack because im a caveman and i like shiny objects…they intrigue me. When i think the time is right ill dump my stack and speculate in beach front property in Japan. I hear Fukishima county is a real bargan now. Good Luck folks…tick tock  

  33. THE DOLLAR ISNT GOING TO TOTALLY COLLAPSE. There way to many reasons why this wont happen. You want to here some? Here they are.
    1#Its the biggest gun out there, The government loves it. They cane buy the world with it and also control the world with it.
    2#Every ones minds all over the world are programmed to except it. Its there internal food of greed we breathe.
    3#If the dollar collapses all the governments lose control of there people.
    4#The dollar will stay strong since the gov will always want to prove gold an silver wrong.
    5#When the gov does declare bankruptcy dollar will shine if greater then it was worth in 1913. Since the banks be closed along with the government actually cash be hard to find. No more printing an your bank account is frozen.
    6#The last one here. The dollar stay strong because if it crashes all other currency will go down with it. An what in the hell does all the sour politicans be doing with all there elgotten gains. Only on place to put it the nwo bank currency. I believe they already have there new ATM cards
     
     

    • @Dangit Old Buddy… 
       
      You make decent points, then destroy your own momentum by your LAST POINT!!! 
      Ya can’t have it BOTH WAYS! If the U$D can’t crash, why do yo u believe they already have their NWO ATM Cards? 
      lol
       
      #5 is the big Deflationist argument, and may well happen. Silver and Gold will be largely unaffected, 
      as they will be sky high versus the lost “digital dollar$” (revalued) but actual printed Ca$h will be scarce. 
      This “cash” will bolster the value of all types of US currency, coins included. The value of un-manipulated 
      Silver and Gold will hold up to everything but the physical “dollar” if it survives a “digital crash” as it were. 
      Probably a “wash” in effect. 

  34. April 28, (peak Silver day, 2011) 
    GSR was ~31:1 
     
    Sept 6, (peak Gold day, 2011)
    GSR was ~46:1 
     
    We keep comparing Apr. 28th Silver to Sept. 6th Gold, and in reality, we were MUCH CLOSER to a 
    30:1 GSR on Silver’s peak day. Gold peaked much later in the year, and Silver was only $42 that day. 
    38:1 is a useful figure, but BOTH Markets were less MANIP-MANOPped when SILVER PEAKED. They felt 
    they had to get SILVER under control, but Gold just kept right on trucking! 
     
    Useful History lesson, and IMO lends more credibility to @AGXIIK‘s thesis above  ^.^
    I expect the next peak to be a GSR Under 30:1 unless it is just a temporary loss of control 
    by our old friends, the MANIP-MANOPpers
     
    Here it comes again… 

    • FURTHER RESEARCH and number crunching reveals:
      That GOLD raised another 25%+ after SILVER was SLAMMED BACK UNDER $48.48!
      If SILVER Would have been allowed to continue in it’s trajectory, it would have hit 
      AT LEAST $60 per OUNCE!!! 
      (We need larger font on SD, I cannot say this LOUD Enough!) 
      But has anyone else noticed that SILVER doubles it’s gains over Gold in a normal Bull Run???
      That indicates a probable Price of $73/oz and maybe more, cuz I charted the last few up-ticks and 
      the Silver Average out-performance Factor is right at 2.5:1 and $80/oz would be more like it if Silver 
      follows Gold on an unfettered path. 
       

  35. Thanks AGXIIK

    • Yep 
      @AGXIIK
       
      You sure know how to generate site traffic! 
      The Doc sure must love you! You buy SILVER by the Metric TON,
      Gold by the “good delivery bar sizes” and post a mean article!!! 
      So here’s a new KLUMMAC Funny with WILLY WONKSTER!

  36. Have a question for everyone.  What do you think about purchasing the complete sets of ASE, Morgans, & Peace dollars?  ASE are uncirculated condition.  Peace Dollar – 1921-1935 – 24 Coins In All – VG-XF Condition & 1878-1921 Morgan Year Set-VG Condition.  The 1986-2013 Complete Gem Uncirculated Silver Eagle 28 coin Set is $859.99.  That comes out to $30.71 for each ASE.  I just thought it might be cool to have all of the years.  Probably should try to get the most out of my money per ounce & buy bars and rounds.  Any thoughts? 

    • @Hawk
      If that is one ASE per year, that is not really like a “collection” anyway. 
      It should normally include one from each mint of every year.
      I’d try and assemble my own, if you want such a collection. 
      More Info below…

  37. Very Good and eXtra Fine Peace and Morgan Dollars are gonna be over $30 each probably… 
    24 Peace: $720
    44 Morgan: $1320 
    28 ASE’s  : $860
     
    Almost 3 grand for 70 T/oz is quite steep. OVER $42/oz
    If you are not a collector, don’t start. If AG’s runup happens soon, (or late!) your collection will be worth 
    the same as SPOT. NUMI Premiums evaporate to ZERO, when SPOT rises wildly. 
    You can get twice the ounces for the same money, my friend! …And that is what I would suggest…
    Double your haul, buy bullion grade. Likely the ASE’s are regular Bullion Grade anyway, which is not 
    hard to find. I bet you could assemble a collection like that for much less. 

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