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SilvaSprott’s Tekoa Da Silva joins The Doc & Eric Dubin on this week’s Metals & Markets from the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium in Vancouver discussing:

  • PM futures roller coaster: metals smashed under $1300 and $21 ahead of options expiration, but close week with a strong Friday afternoon rally- is the take-down over?
  • Tekoa discusses his journey from PM journalist and pod-caster to Investment Executive at Sprott Global- what he’s learned from the brilliant minds there including Sprott, Rick Rule, and John Embry, and how SD listeners can apply lessons he’s learned at Sprott to their investing
  • With the BRICS announcing the $100 billion central banking alternative to the West, Tekoa discusses the death of the US & the dollar as occurring gradually so as not to alarm the boiling lobster: “At some point the lobster will pass away, and be eaten by outside groups!
  • Tekoa reveals how he was able to get the  ECB’s Mario Draghi to admit central banks’ gold leasing has been unsuccessful 
  • From the stunning “Castle in the City” in Vancouver, Tekoa gives an inside update on the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium, and reveals how excited the Sprott team is about the next major bull upleg in the PM and natural resource sector. 

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With Tekoa Da Silva from the Sprott Natural Resource Symposium in Vancouver is below: 


From the “Castle in the City” Fairmont Hotel Vancouver, site of the 2014 Sprott Natural Resource Symposium:


Source:  The brilliant William Banzai 7

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Another week, another bear raid in precious metals.  Surprised?  This time, the mainstream media is harping on slowing Chinese gold demand as being the catalyst for last Thursday’s big price decline.  Demand has moderated, but the establishment media isn’t painting a full context map.  They’re over-estimating the decline.

June’s Hong Kong net gold imports totaled about 40 metric tons, versus 52.3 tons in May.  The Financial Times of London ran a story with a “scary” headline sure to reinforce mainstream bearishness: China gold demand falls by a fifth, but output rises.  But here’s the rub.  More and more gold imports are now flowing directly into mainland China, bypassing Hong Kong.  China doesn’t report on this flow.  Months have passedsince this change went into effect and by now, we might even be talking about a tonnage shift away from that is greater than the reported net gold Hong Kong month-over-month import decline in June.

Mainstream financial media further substantiates the slowing demand thesis by citing lower Chinese retail gold jewelery demand.  Ironically enough, there’s a discrepancy in this data that the mainstream has totally missed that dilutes the weakening demand thesis.

The Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. is the world’s largest publicly traded jeweler.  Following Thursday’s attack on gold and silver, Bloomberg ran a story including the company’s report of a 24% decline in mainland Chinese sales for the three months ending June 30th.  But the story failed to emphasize that’s a year-over-year comparison and other important points of context.

Fact is, a 24% decline in mainland Chinese retail gold demand over last year’s unprecedented demand following the April 2013 blatant neutron bombing of gold still represents near record demand.  More importantly, that percentage decline is much lower than the year-over-year declines in Honk Kong net gold imports for the second quarter;  particularly stark comparisons are seen with year-over-year data for May and June, where roughly a halving of net Hong Kong gold imports were reported compared to the same months in 2013.  You’d think that Bloomberg reporters would recognize that the halving of Hong Kong net imports while jewelry demand (using Chow Tai Fook’s sales as a reasonable estimation of the entire sector) only falling by about a fourth would raise necessary analytical questions.  For starters, this contrast provides further anecdotal evidence that a considerable amount of unreported gold is flowing into China that in the least, partially makes up for the decline in Hong Kong net imports.

To date, I’m the only precious metals analyst pointing the discrepancy between mainland jewelry demand trends versus Hong Kong net import data.  Obviously, jewelry demand and raw gold demand in Hong Kong does not have a perfect correlation — but it’s darn high, and the magnitude of this discrepancy more than makes up for data opacity.  It’s virtually impossible to draw any other conclusion than the fact that a huge amount of unreported gold is bypassing Hong Kong and landing directly on the mainland.

Bottom-line:  we’re going to have to suffer through more months where establishment butt kissing media will continue to report on Hong Kong net gold imports without recognizing that it’s to be expected that part of any given month’s decline will be on account of direct Chinese mainland imports.

 


Tekoa Da Silva:  A Rising Star

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We’ve missed Tekoa’s active blogging and outstanding interviews.  But clearly, Sprott was wise to hire Tekoa and I’m confident we’ll be hearing much more from him in the future.

It was a pleasure speaking with Tekoa.  I think you’ll enjoy the back-story on his encounter with ECB big cheese Mario Draghi and his experiences working at Sprott Global.

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TGIF

We’ve endured another week of intense geopolitical turmoil, and there’s no sign tensions in the Middle East nor the Ukraine will lessen anytime soon.  Perhaps sharing lighthearted material would be appropriate?  Nah…  If you missed it, do check out the series Dave Kranzler and John Titus have produced on the derivatives quagmire.  The series is thought provoking.  Click here to access part one and here for part two.

A hat tip to Jason Burack and the Wall Street For Main Street team is also due.  They’re producing high quality interviews on a regular basis, including this week’s interview with Dave Kranzler.  Check them out and consider bookmarking their website and/or subscribing to their YouTube channel.  …and no, we’re not getting paid for the plug, but we will be syndicating Wall Street For Main Street on The News Doctors.

Have a great weekend — Eric Dubin, TND managing editor, analyst and occasional flying wombat


  1. Tekoa is a remarkable young man.  i stumbled upon one of his videos on YOUTUBE and was amazed at how smart he was for someone so young.  Good things come to ambitious & savy young people like Tekoa.   
    Someday i’d like to go to a natural resources conference & get to sit in the audience & listen to the lectures & meet all the participants.   
     
     

  2. Pretty weak interview this time around, and I can’t say I got a single thing from it.

    In addition, I am not about to take seriously someone like Tekoa Da Silva, a journalist, who is obviously still “wet behind his ears”. Don’t we get enough of these wannabe ‘wonder-boys’ from Wall Street already? Give me someone who has been in the PM trenches for a few decades with a track record (and not a certifiable conspiracy nut) and I might pay closer attention.

    One of Da Silva’s great suggestions from November 2012:
    “In more clear terms, I think this a good time to assemble a list of your favorite mining stocks, and see where they take you over the next 12-24 months.” http://www.miningfeeds.com/2012/11/16/are-mining-stocks-oversold/

    P.S. @The-Doc try balancing the volumes of the speakers in your weekly interviews. All the speakers are being recorded in differing loudness so that if you want to hear the quietest then others (typically you) often seem to be SHOUTING. Just a suggestion, but I just hate it when the loud vibrations shake the wax out of my ears ….

    • I do appreciate Tekoa for his insights and frankness.
      And I agree it was a weak interview. 
      And yes the volume balance got me to jump off the couch when Doc responded to Tekoa. Holy volume Batman!
      I will offer that this may in part to Tekoa just thriving more as a well-informed interviewer. He’s also still getting up to speed at Sprott I’m sure, unless I did the unthinkable and underestimate him still.
      Tekoa sounds even more like Rick Rule now. But that may not be such a bad thing. Patience and persistence to do well from a low point in your portfolio.
      I commend Sprott for taking on an “outsider”. Then, he’s great at analysis andd presentation, already made his mistakes, and is dedicated to get somewhere in the resource sector. Tekoa may not be the greatest stock picker in the world, he is extremely well spoken and might be the next generation for Sprott. The leadership team is at pension age and will at some point need to be succeeded. Hopefully not too soon, I love those guys. So much good and honest info from billionaires who still manage other people’s money. Front row seats for everyone!

    • XC,
      “I will offer that this may in part to Tekoa just thriving more as a well-informed interviewer. He’s also still getting up to speed at Sprott I’m sure.” I sure hope so for his sake

      “Tekoa sounds even more like Rick Rule now. But that may not be such a bad thing. Sounding like someone else isn’t necessarily a good thing. It demonstrates to me that he doesn’t have much depth or conviction in what he is saying, but rather playing the part of a well-versed ‘parrot’.

      “Patience and persistence to do well from a low point in your portfolio.” Always.

      “I commend Sprott for taking on an “outsider”. Then, he’s great at analysis and presentation, already made his mistakes, and is dedicated to get somewhere in the resource sector.” I am not sure if you mean Sprott or Da Silva here. If Sprott I wholeheartedly agree, but if you mean Da Silva the boat is still out on all but the last item in which he apparently does.

      “Tekoa may not be the greatest stock picker in the world, he is extremely well spoken and might be the next generation for Sprott.” Not the greatest picker by a long shot, but he has time to learn. Unfortunately I don’t see him personally in that role … his strengths appear to be as a journalist/presenter and that may be where Sprott plans to use him to free up his and Rule’s time. Besides, doing analysis is where you need the greatest skill and typically they don’t double up well on skill sets (Rick Rule may be the exception).

      “The leadership team is at pension age and will at some point need to be succeeded. Hopefully not too soon, I love those guys. So much good and honest info from billionaires who still manage other people’s money.” Agreed.

    • I wonder if those two banks will call in CFTC members and former members as “expert witnesses”?  Their “exhaustive” 5-year probe of the silver market failed to turn up any evidence of manipulation (or even a smidgen of corruption?) in the silver market.  After all, IF it was happening, they WOULD have found the evidence, right? RIGHT?!
       

    • I used to have a crawdaddy trap that I put in the Columbia River from time to time.  Some of those hummers were 6-7″ long.  Most were about 4-4.5″ long.  Yes, it takes several of them to make a meal but they are just as tasty as their salt water cousins.  lol
       

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