Gold-mining stocks surged higher this past week after breaking free from their high consolidation. This newest upleg catapulted gold stocks to a doubling in less than 3 months, a remarkable world-leading performance. But despite its quick doubling, this red-hot sector still has another easy doubling left to come from here. Gold-mining stocks still remain greatly undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices.
Silver’s reluctant, sluggish participation in early 2016’s powerful gold rally has been glaringly obvious. Instead of amplifying the yellow metal’s big gains as in the past, silver largely failed to even keep pace. The lack of silver confirmation for gold’s big move has certainly raised concerns.
But despite silver’s vexing torpidity in recent months, it is a coiled spring ready to explode higher to catch and surpass gold.
The red-hot gold stocks have spent most of March in consolidation mode, grinding sideways near their 2016 highs. Interestingly this month’s rally pause is par for the course seasonally in gold-stock bull markets. Like gold itself, this sector tends to slump to a seasonal low in mid-March before embarking on a strong spring rally in April and May. With gold stocks back in a bull, their seasonality warrants consideration.
Is a BIG SPRING RALLY Dead Ahead?
Gold stocks have radically outperformed every other sector in the stock markets this year, blasting higher as investors flock back to gold. This powerful surge is spawning worries that gold stocks’ new bull run is in danger of exhausting itself. But such fears are totally unfounded. A longer-term perspective reveals that gold stocks’ baby bull market in 2016 remains tiny in the grand scheme.
This new bull has barely begun:
With gold miners’ stock prices surging dramatically this year, investors’ attention is starting to return to the gold juniors. These smaller miners and explorers suffered terribly in recent years, all but abandoned as gold slumped to major secular lows. But even during gold’s darkest quarter, the fundamentals of the juniors actually mining gold remained quite strong. This portends explosive profits growth as gold recovers.
Gold’s powerful surge in 2016 has been driven by utterly massive investment buying. This is a marked sea change from recent years, where investors relentlessly pulled capital out of gold. But with that dire sentiment reversing, they are rushing back in with a vengeance. Major investment capital inflows into gold are an exceedingly-bullish omen, as they are what transform a mere gold rally into a new bull market.
The gold miners’ stocks have soared this year as investors flock back into this long-abandoned sector. Many traders wonder if these eye-popping gains are merely the product of fleeting sentiment that could reverse anytime, or are supported by strong underlying fundamentals. With the gold miners reporting their latest quarterly operating results, this extensive new data offers great insights into gold mining’s fundamentals.
The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months.
But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run.
Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come?
This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets.
Gold and its miners’ stocks are rocketing higher as speculators and investors alike return to this left-for-dead sector. This sudden deluge of capital inflows has crowned gold stocks the best-performing sector of this young new year by far, shocking traders!
And this stunning reversal of fortunes in both the metal and the companies producing it is only starting, so it’s exceedingly important to understand what’s going on.
Contrary to Wall Street’s assertion that gold and silver demand continue to implode heralding much-lower precious-metals prices, the US Mint says these American Eagle coins are selling like hotcakes.
On December 31st it reported that 2015 sales of its gold bullion coins soared 53% above 2014’s levels, while silver-bullion-coin sales hit an all-time record!
That’s impressive considering 2015’s poor price action.
Gold stocks remain the pariah of the investment world. Despite gold’s strong early-year gains, the stocks of its miners have slumped to new secular lows. This whole forsaken sector continues to languish at fundamentally-absurd price levels, an extreme anomaly that is long overdue to start unwinding. The gold miners will be bid massively higher to reflect their impressive profitability even at today’s dismal gold prices.
The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway. The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation. Unfortunately the only possible reckoning after such a record artificial stock boost is a long-overdue major bear market that is finally awakening.
Gold certainly had a rough year in 2015, grinding inexorably lower on Fed-rate-hike fears and investor abandonment. But gold is poised to rebound dramatically in this new year, mean reverting out of its recent deep secular lows. The drivers of gold’s weakness have soared to such extremes that they have to reverse hard. The resulting heavy buying from dominant groups of traders will fuel gold’s mighty 2016 upleg.
The Federal Reserve finally mustered the courage to end its radical zero-interest-rate-policy experiment this week. Its quarter-point rate hike announced on the seventh anniversary of ZIRP kicks off the long road to normalization. This leaves the stock markets and gold in unprecedented uncharted territory.
The Fed has never before attempted to exit ZIRP, let alone in the midst of such extremely distorted markets.
Gold’s deep new secular lows of recent weeks were fueled by American futures speculators’ overpowering fear of Fed rate hikes. They believe zero-yielding gold is doomed in a higher-rate world, so they dumped gold futures at astounding record rates. The problem is history proves just the opposite, that gold tends to thrive during Fed-rate-hike cycles. This revelation is a super-bullish near-term omen for gold.
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention. Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are reasonably valued, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested. But with valuations soaring following a massive rally and weak third-quarter earnings season, they are dangerously high and portend great downside risk. Stock topping valuations abound.
Gold stocks have suffered heavy collateral damage following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish surprise late last month, which ignited enormous gold-futures selling by American speculators. This devastated sector has been battered back down near last summer’s deep secular lows. But these gold-stock price levels are fundamentally absurd, the product of extreme and irrational sentiment that can’t persist for long.
Today’s gold-stock price levels are the greatest fundamental disconnect in the entire stock markets, an epic opportunity for contrarian investors and speculators!
The entire gold-mining industry is trading as if the price of gold, the overwhelmingly-dominant driver of its profits, was just a small fraction of prevailing levels.
Gold stocks are radically underpriced fundamentally based on their current and future earnings power.
Gold has enjoyed a strong new uptrend in recent months following last summer’s extreme gold-futures shorting attack. But speculators returned with a vengeance this past week, aggressively dumping gold futures again following a hawkish surprise by the Fed. The resulting gold plunge shattered its support, and thrust sentiment back into hyper-bearish territory. But gold-futures shorting soon reverses to big buying.
With the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade looming, traders are working overtime trying to divine its timing and impact on the markets. They are closely monitoring the same employment and inflation data the Fed will use to start tightening. But there’s another little-discussed concern for the Fed, the solvency of the US government. The Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy has spawned a grave US debt bomb.
Silver is finally showing some signs of life after suffering a dark year. The epically-bearish sentiment that bludgeoned this metal to major secular lows is cracking, with a strong rebound rally now underway. And this recent buying is likely just the earliest vanguard, as silver remains deeply undervalued relative to its primary driver gold.
Silver will need an utterly massive upleg to fully mean revert to normal levels.