Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, warns CNBC what SD readers have known for months:
There will be no series of rate hikes- rather, the Fed’s next move is likely to officially re-introduce quantitative easing:
- Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen further improvement in the labor market
- Even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run
(Translation: ZIRP is here to stay)
- Fed to maintain accommodative financial conditions
- Somehow no rate hike is now algo bearish for PMs as Gold & silver instantly knocked lower on the release…
Full FOMC statement is below:
“January was just loaded with big events…the door was opened to a number of different channels working simultaneously for bringing about what I call the global paradigm shift and that’s basically the retirement of the dollar and the re-installation of the gold standard both in trade and in banking.
Sooner or later we’re going to see a massive flow of major banking systems dumping Treasury bonds because they don’t use them anymore – they don’t want them anymore. And that’s when we’ll see QE4 come into play.”
The Fed is going to be in easing mode a year from now. They might try to raise interest rates one time, which I think would be like playing with fire. If they do try to raise rates once at this next meeting or the one that follows, I think they’ll have to reverse it out by the end of the year because the economy really does seem to be slowing down.
You can’t tolerate a slow-down when you reach a certain point of death.
John Rubino joins Rory Hall & Fund Manager Dave Kranzler below in a discussion about the factors that will ignite the global financial and economic system into flames:
In this MUST WATCH interview with CNBC, our favorite Fed critic Jim Grant predicts that the Fed will be forced to revert to easing rather than raising interest rates in 2015, and that “The Fed can change the way things look, but not what things are.”
Grant’s full interview is below:
Here is the net result of central banks pursuing quantitative easing and zero-interest rates: a massive increase in global risks resulting from the carry trades the money expansion and cheap rates fueled.
The central banks’ “solution” has blown another global bubble of risk that now threatens to destabilize not just the carry trades but the economies and credit systems that have become intertwined with the carry trade.
In effect, the failure to address the structural problems revealed in the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-2009 have been transferred to the larger foreign-exchange (FX) market, which is connected to virtually everything in the global economy.
It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve is going to announce the end of quantitative easing this week.
Will this represent a major turning point for the stock market?
As you will see below, since 2008 stocks have risen dramatically throughout every stage of quantitative easing.
But when the various phases of quantitative easing have ended, stocks have always responded by declining substantially.
The only thing that caused stocks to eventually start rising again was a new round of quantitative easing.
Most Americans don’t even understand what derivatives are, but when the next great financial crisis strikes we are going to be hearing a whole lot about them.
The big banks have transformed Wall Street into the biggest casino in the history of the planet, and there is no way that this is going to end well.
A great collapse is coming. It is just a matter of time.
Gold & silver were whacked by the cartel in the access market today as Janet Yellen and the Fed announced QE will end at the end of the month.
Expect gold and silver to be under the weather for the remainder of the week.
Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today:
Can you solve a crisis of too much indebtedness by increasing debt and suppressing interest rates?
Thanks to the Fed’s monetary policies, which have encouraged an increase in demand for US Treasuries, the Federal government no longer has a problem funding its deficit. QE is therefore redundant, and has been since tapering was first mooted. This does not mean that QE is going to be abandoned forever: its re-introduction will depend on the relationship between the government’s borrowing needs and market demand for its debt.
This analysis is confirmed by Japan’s current situation. There, QE coincides with an economy that is deteriorating by the day. One cannot argue that QE has been good for the Japanese economy. The reality behind “abenomics” is that Japan’s government is funding a massive deficit at the same time as savers are drawing down capital to cover their day-to-day living requirements. In short, the funding gap is being covered by printing money. And now the collapsing yen, which is the inevitable consequence of monetary inflation, threatens to expose this folly.
- Yellen lays out Federal Reserve’s plans to “normalize” monetary policy
- Fed to officially DC QE at next meeting if economic outlook holds
- “Normalization” will not necessarily occur immediately
- Fed will use an overnight repo facility as needed during normalization process
- Fed may raise interest rates as early as 2015
- Committee is prepared to adjust its approach if necessary (translation- we’re going to try to pull the punchbowl, but we’ll eventually bring back MOAR QE )
- Gold & silver smash commences on que as gold sent down a mineshaft below support at $1230
Full FOMC statement is below:
The QE program created substantial hedge fund interest in gold-related ETFs. Unfortunately, QE never created the inflation the funds had anticipated.
That’s because commercial banks held the QE money they received, “tight to the chest”, rather than loaning it to businesses and consumers.
In a nutshell, by enlarging the money supply while GDP was falling, the Fed created deflation.
So, if the Fed were to shrink the money supply now, or at least reduce its rate of growth, while GDP rises, and banks start making loans with their “QE booty” at the same time…. is that inflationary?
The answer is yes.
The Federal Reserve’s third quantitative-easing campaign is on track to wind down in late October. At that point the Fed will likely stop printing new money to buy bonds, a sea-change shift with ominous implications for the stock markets. Their entire surreal levitation during QE3 mirrored the huge growth in the Fed’s balance sheet from QE3’s bond monetizations. When they cease, another major selloff is likely.
Prudent investors and speculators today don’t have to guess about what the end of QE3 means for the lofty Fed-inflated US stock markets. We have the precedent of the ends of QE1 and QE2. This next chart looks at the flagship S&P 500 stock index superimposed over the Fed’s balance sheet.
And out of all the many thousands of charts I’ve created over the years, this probably tops the heap as the scariest.
Gold drifted lower this week, with the price undermined by lack of interest on low volume and a slightly more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.
The chart below, of gold and open interest on Comex, shows how the price has declined while open interest has hardly budged from its historically low level.
June’s FMQ components have now been released by the St Louis Fed, and it stands at a record $13.132 trillion. As can be seen in the chart above, it is $5.48 trillion more than an extension of the pre-Lehman crisis exponential growth trend.
The chart confirms that tapering seems to be having little or no effect on money markets and therefore the growth rate of fiat currency.
Still believe the Fed is really tapering QE?
The world’s leading silver expert David Morgan joins The Doc & Eric Dubin this week to discuss:
- The Fed tapers official QE another $10 billion- gold & silver whacked the day after the FOMC statement yet again
- David breaks down gold and silver trading over the first half of 2014: Gold & Silver still base building a Major Bottom
- Is the next banking crisis beginning? Banco Espírito Santo’s share price halved on Thursday
- Be right and sit tight? David explains why the PM markets will scare you out or wear you out
- We ask David how he sees the end-game for the dollar playing out- will we see a deflationary crash, or a hyper-inflation monetary collapse, and how will PMs protect wealth against both?
- On the Brink? Washington driving West towards direct conflict with Russia
The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc, Eric Dubin, and David Morgan is below:
The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the U.S., is nearing the end of its ability to manipulate the U.S. economy without producing consequences worse that those it set out to avoid in 2008.
The Fed has no good exits from seven years of market manipulation. If it continues its current policy of reducing purchases of assets, the so-called “tapering,” it risks throwing the U.S. into a recession.
If it reverses course and pauses the taper and later increases asset purchases, it risks destroying confidence in the dollar among foreign creditors of the U.S.
Both outcomes are potentially disastrous, but there are no good outcomes on the horizon. This is the result of manipulating markets to the point where they no longer function as markets providing useful price signals and guiding the efficient allocation of capital. Today markets are a mirage, created by the Federal Reserve, which is caught in a prison of its own device.
Back in 2002, I was talking about $1,000 gold. When we hit that mark in ’05 and ’06 I began predicting that gold would rise to $2,000.
Now, I’m saying gold will probably go to $5,000 in the next move up.
“Looking at the performance of gold from 1976 to 1980, the metal went up eight times. If we repeated that performance, gold would be at over $8,000 from today by the end of the decade. I don’t know if the same thing will happen this time, but it tells you that $5,000 per ounce is not unthinkable.“
Yellen continues QE taper down to $35 billion/month:
- Fed to taper QE an additional $10 billion beginning in July
- Beginning in July, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $15 billion per month rather than $20 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month.
- Waiting on the inevitable Gold & silver smash to commence…
Full FOMC Statement is below:
In this EXCLUSIVE, MUST LISTEN interview with The Doc, Eric Sprott dissects the fundamentals in the gold and silver markets, coverage of manipulation finally reaching the mainstream, and reveals his updated outlook on gold & silver.
Eric discusses why the precious metals options markets always expire at MAX PAIN for the customers, and why he urges all PM investors to STAY OUT of the futures options markets, and simply accumulate physical metal.
Sprott explains how PM manipulation shifted from being conducted solely by the Central banks to the dealers active daily participation that we see now, and discusses how much he personally lost when a Barclays trader manipulated gold down into the London fix.
Regarding his price outlook for the metals, with silver trading under $20 and gold trading near $1250, is Eric still looking for new highs in 2014?
His answer might shock you.
The Doc’s full Exclusive interview with Eric Sprott of Sprott Asset Management is below:
In this MUST LISTEN interview with Paul Sandhu, the Hat Trick Letter editor Jim Willie discusses why the yuan is destined to replace the US dollar as reserve currency, and why the quickly growing Russian/Chinese alliance will DESTROY the US dollar.
Willie digs into the recent string of bankster deaths, his thoughts on the implications of the London silver fix ending in August, & the Fed money laundering funds through Belgium in order to prevent a collapse in T-bonds due to Russian liquidation.
Willie states that due Chinese & Russian liquidation, US Treasury bonds have gone NO-BID, and that a dollar-collapse looms!
Grab several cups of coffee as the Golden Jackass is at the top of his game throughout the entire 80 minute interview below: