gold bull

Gold has staged a nice upside breakout, from a bullish flag pattern.
A rise above $1200 could usher in a lot of momentum-oriented buying,creating a near-vertical surge to the $1235 -$1240 price zone.
In my professional opinion, gold demand in India for Diwali has been the main price driver of this rally, and that demand has overwhelmed speculators carrying short positions on the COMEX.
Gold is in a tremendously strong position right now. The weekly charts are very bullish, and flag patterns are in play on the shorter term charts.  Fundamentally, India is a force to be reckoned with for decades to come, and the Swiss referendum and the potential for the ECB to become a gold buyer is growing.
Almost all the lights are green, for gold! 

Indian gold

Take a look at the HUI/gold ratio chart below in the year 2000 – 2001 period.
While gold went nowhere, gold stocks surged from late November in the year 2000, until the spring of 2001.
I think a similar situation is on the horizon now.
Is the Western gold community prepared to profit, if it happens? I hope so!
Gold, not stock market casino chips, will be where India puts their growing riches, and rightly so!
With Indian gold demand potentially moving into “
overdrive” mode, most gold stocks appear ready to have a great year in 2015!

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I expect that gold could stay under some pressure this week, until Friday’s US Employment Situation report is released, at about 8:30 AM on Friday.
If gold were to trade in the $1219 area, that would be a rough 50% retracement of the $1183 – $1255 rally.
Such pullbacks are perfectly normal after decent rallies.  The overall picture remains a healthy one.
Chinese demand is starting to rise again and Indian demand is superb. Gold is well-supported here, and investor fear is unwarranted. 

yellen

Wealth in the stock market that is “here to stay”, is generated by buying business cycle troughs, not peaks.
While most bank economists and gold community analysts predicted a Fed taper would crush the price of gold, I suggested it would cause gold to rally, and turn the Dow into a wet noodle, and that’s exactly what has transpired.
Here’s what will happen next: 

launch rocket vertical

In late 2013, I predicted the Fed would taper all the way to zero in 2014, and suggested that taper would turn the Dow into a “wet noodle”, while creating a rally in gold prices. That’s the opposite of what most analysts thought would happen in 2014, and it’s exactly what has transpired.
The risk of a complete global stock market meltdown is growing now. The Fed’s number two man, Stan Fischer, has thrown gas on the fire, by aggressively suggesting the Fed’s next move will be to raise interest rates.
Many investors are assuming the Fed can engineer another huge stock market rally with further easing.  
Instead, what they could experience is something more akin to an economic ice age.

gold bull

A major decline in oil prices that causes a collapse in global stock markets while Indian gold demand surges, is likely to entice those money managers to recommend gold stocks to their clients.
As the dollar has rallied, the price of silver has declined significantly, and the gold to silver ratio has soared to the 70 – 80 area.
What are the implications for silver, if there is a global stock markets crash caused by deflating oil prices?

gold bull

The average gold bear already looks a bit like the wolf character from the fairy tale, “The Three Little Pigs”.
The wolf repeatedly blows hot bearish analysis air at the gold brick house, and the house just stands there, immovable.

I’ve predicted that Queen Bankster Janet” will begin raising rates by mid-year of 2015, and that’s bullish for gold.
Here’s why: 

Source: Banzai7

The QE program created substantial hedge fund interest in gold-related ETFs. Unfortunately, QE never created the inflation the funds had anticipated.
That’s because commercial banks held the QE money they received, “tight to the chest”, rather than loaning it to businesses and consumers.
In a nutshell, by enlarging the money supply while GDP was falling, the Fed created deflation.
So, if the Fed were to shrink the money supply now, or at least reduce its rate of growth, while GDP rises, and banks start making loans with their “QE booty” at the same time…. is that inflationary?
The answer is yes.

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During the first half of 2014, Chinese gold demand was not spectacular, but it was decent,and it appears to be rising again.
Technically, gold appears to set to rally from around the time the September 5th jobs report is released.
Is the rally likely to be a little one, or a big one?

gold

Given the stunning Indian and geopolitical price drivers now in play in Iraq, Syria, and the Ukraine, I think gold could charge beyond $1325, and on towards the $1347 and $1390 area highs.
Silver, which is perhaps better referred to as “gold on steroids”, looks even better. 

gold-coin-sales-halted-chi-20140807-001At about 2PM today, the next FOMC minutes get released.
The bottom line: With the CRB index approaching solid support, any gold-negative news is not likely to move the price of gold lower than $1275.

The upside numbers of importance are $1325, $1347, and $1392.   This is a different market than it was, when QE was the main theme of global gold price discovery.
While it will likely take longer than most investors expect for gold to rise significantly, it will still rise, and gold and silver equities are poised to do extremely well.

Indian goldMost investors buy gold because they are nervous about the financial system, government debt/bureaucracy, central bank money printing, and dangerous geopolitical developments.   In a nutshell, that’s the “fear trade” for gold.
The fear trade is a great reason to own a core position in gold now, and forever.   Gold should be the first item bought in any investment portfolio. That’s because lowest risk assets must be bought first, not the ones that appear to offer the most potential reward.
Ironically, it’s probably going to be the “love trade” (gold jewellery), not the fear trade, that makes the Western gold community a lot richer.

Summer_SaleA floor is not a “bottom that occurs just before blastoff!” event.   It’s a general price zone of enormous support, where downside price volatility should not be feared.
As the month of August gets underway, the gold market has a solid feel to it.
The commercials are still net short at least 160,000 contracts in gold.
There is great symmetry between the actions of the commercial traders in July-August 2009 and their actions today.