Gold is a physical commodity. Its owners are removing it from the tradable markets, squirreling it away in nooks and crannies where they feel it’s safe. This is not merely a phenomenon of differing interest rates. Real metal is being moved in the real world, and everyone would do well to understand why, and what it means.
Trust is collapsing, and for good reason. The foundation of the global financial system is the US Treasury bond. It is backed by nothing more nor less than the full faith and credit of a government with exponentially rising debt, and which has neither the means nor intent to repay. If you don’t trust that the US government can pay, then you can’t trust a bank deposit because the bank uses the Treasury as their asset. If you can’t trust a bank, then you can’t trust a gold futures contract.
It is in this light that one must view gold backwardation. In wheat or any other ordinary commodity, there is sometimes a state of shortage. When that occurs, anyone with the commodity can make a risk-free profit by decarrying it.
However, there is no such thing as a shortage of gold. There is a shortage developing—a shortage of trust. Decarrying gold does incur a risk. One may be giving up good metal for bad paper, and never be able to reverse the swap.
Unfortunately, with the collapse of trust comes the collapse of coordination of economic activity. The disappearance of gold from the monetary system will have momentous consequences.
The Golden Jackass Jim Willie sat down with The Doc this weekend for an extraordinary interview regarding gold, silver, and what Willie believes will soon be a massive European banking collapse.
Willie states that a Big European Bust is Coming- evidenced by the fact that European banks received $1.2 trillion from the NY Fed in January alone!
Willie states that the coming European bust will ignite a global Gold rush, a massive short covering rally, and will result in a powerful 30% to 50% rise in the gold price!
Willie also discusses gold and silver backwardation, the recent paper raids, and whether or not the metals face the risk of a 2008 type collapse as the Western financial markets go down in flames!
In the latest Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert look at central banking monkeys performing cannonballs into the global dark pools, the backlash against quantitative easing and the Queen ticking off the Bank of England. In the second half, Max talks to economist Sandeep Jaitly of FeketeResearch.com about silver backwardation and a monetary path that will throw us *all* into such poverty that none of us will be able satisfy our ends. [Read more...]
Our friend Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management (who advised SD readers in June of the imminent launch of an ALLOCATED physical silver exchange in Asia) was on the Keiser Report today discussing unallocated versus allocated gold and silver bullion, and how permanent backwardation could be an omen of a total meltdown in the precious metals market.
Naylor-Leyland discusses MASSIVE physical strains in the silver market, as evidenced by 2 large silver purchases in London (5-10 million oz range) which the LBMA is REFUSING TO DELIVER OUTSIDE OF THE LBMA SYSTEM!!