As gold rises steadily higher, it “refuses to have a correction”. That’s making some investors nervous. Gold is the greatest investment asset in the world, so it’s important to stay focused on the big picture.
Gold market technicians should be open to the possibility that in the bigger picture, this rally has only just started.
Many of PM investors are likely to sell on a rally back to the $1500 area, to cut the huge losses they sustained in 2013. They are highly confused, and suffering from immense drawdowns. This fact defines them as weak-handed investors. When weak hands book losses, whether it is on a rally or a decline, that’s bullish.
When weak-handed investors are looking to bail on a market, that market tends to move much higher, and the Dow moved relentlessly higher during the 2003 – 2007 period. I think a similar situation may be at hand now, in the gold market. [Read more...]
Our lead story: JP Morgan Chase, the largest bank in the US by assets is reducing its headcount for 2014. The bank announced the changes, saying that creating a business model that can deal with new regulation is cutting into the firm’s profits. JP Morgan said it expects its total headcount to fall by 5,000 to 260,000 people. But JP Morgan is confident that it can win in this new environment… by replacing humans with machines. Erin explains.
Then we welcome Chris Martenson of Peakprosperity.com to give his thoughts on the Federal Reserve and the weak fundamentals of the US economy. In the first segment, Martenson discusses the effect of the huge flood of liquidity created by the Fed on the market. He also explains why bond prices can go up as a result of the Fed’s quantitative easing. After the break, Martenson describes why quantitative easing has helped equity prices but hasn’t helped the underlying economy, and talks about what is happening with inflation in the economy. [Read more...]
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen testified before Congress for the first time since replacing Ben Bernanke at the beginning of the month. Her testimony confirmed what many of us suspected, that interventionist Keynesian policies at the Federal Reserve are well-entrenched and far from over. Mrs. Yellen practically bent over backwards to reassure Wall Street that the Fed would continue its accommodative monetary policy well into any new economic recovery. The same monetary policy that got us into this mess will remain in place until the next crisis hits.
Isn’t it amazing that the same people who failed to see the real estate bubble developing, the same people who were so confident about economic recovery that they were talking about “green shoots” five years ago, the same people who have presided over the continued destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power never suffer any repercussions for the failures they have caused? [Read more...]
We know that there is precedent for Mega-Bank “Bail-ins” (i.e. confiscation) of Depository Accounts (cf. Cyprus and Poland) and Super-priority payments to Mega-Banks, (cf. MFGlobal) in the event of another Financial Crisis.
And now we hear, in the SOTU no less, that Americans are invited to stash their wealth (such as they have left) in MYRAs, which presumably will hold Treasury Securities.
Securities which depreciate as inflation increases.
And Investors have to cope with other “incoming” as well including Real Inflation of about 9%, & Real Unemployment of 23%.
And also we have suppression of P.M. prices. But there is a strategy for Surmounting all this Incoming and Profiting. At best American Holders of MYRA are likely to Suffer loss from inflation, and at worse loss of principal.
But arguably the more serious Incoming Threat is the Ongoing Destruction of the Purchasing Power of the $US by the private for-profit US Fed’s policies. [Read more...]
Driving down the price of gold assists the Fed in its efforts to support the dollar, and the Comex is running out of physical gold available to be delivered to those who decide to take delivery of gold instead of cash settlement.
Manipulation of the gold price is a foregone conclusion. The question is: why is the Fed tapering? The official reason is that the recovery is now strong enough not to need the stimulus. There are two problems with the official explanation. One is that the purpose of QE has always been to support the prices of the debt-related derivatives on the balance sheets of the banks too big to fail.
The liquidity that the Fed has created found its way into the stock and bond markets and into emerging economies. Curtailing the flow of liquidity crashes the markets, bringing on a new financial crisis.
The growth of US debt and money creation is causing the world to turn a jaundiced eye toward the US dollar and toward its role as world reserve currency.
The Fed knows that the ability of the US to pay its bills in its own currency is the reason it can stand its large trade imbalance and is the basis for US power. If the dollar loses the reserve currency role, the US becomes just another country with balance of payments and currency problems and an inability to sell its bonds in order to finance its budget deficits.
In other words, perhaps the Fed understands that a dollar crisis is a bigger crisis than a bank crisis and that its bailout of the banks is undermining the dollar. The question is: will the Fed let the banks go in order to save the dollar? [Read more...]
Late in the fall of 2013, I predicted that the Fed would begin to taper QE, and keep tapering until it was gone. I stunned a lot of investors, by suggesting that this “taper caper” would be bearish for the Dow, and bullish for gold and gold stocks.
During 2014, I expect Dr. Janet Yellen to continue (and possibly accelerate) the tapering process that Dr. Bernanke started, creating more selling in the Dow, and more buying in gold! [Read more...]
With Ben Shalom Bernanke set to depart on the last day of January 2014, the critique and speculation of his tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve begins. The mainstream financial press is giving mostly favorable accounts. Heretofore, such praiseworthy acclamations strike a shape contrast with the actual record of the state of the economy. However, the admirers of the Fed and his specific enactments live in a time warp that only masters of the universe encounter. For the remaining population, an intense struggle for survival is the actual experience, remembered from the Bernanke years.
During the Bernanke era, the debt bubble entered the point of no return to solvency. His place in the history of shame sets the stage for further economic turmoil. The Fed is boxed into a pattern that is likely to escalate out of control. [Read more...]
Last week the Federal Reserve published new data regarding the foreign holdings of US Treasuries. These numbers show Belgium was the largest buyer of US Treasury debt in November last year with an increase in holdings of $20.3 billion. China came in second with a purchase of $12.2 billion of US debt and Japan was the third largest buyer with a $12 billion increase in US government bond holdings. The largest seller was Russia, decreasing it’s US Treasury holdings by $10 billion.
The following charts shows the net changes in bond holdings for the largest foreign holders of US debt.
As you can see below, the Federal Reserve dominates the charts with their bond buying program called QE. [Read more...]
It is time to crank up the Looney Tunes theme song because Wall Street has officially entered crazytown territory. Stocks just keep going higher and higher, and at this point what is happening in the stock market does not bear any resemblance to what is going on in the overall economy whatsoever. So how long can this irrational state of affairs possibly continue? Stocks seem to go up no matter what happens. If there is good news, stocks go up. If there is bad news, stocks go up. If there is no news, stocks go up. On Thursday, the day after Christmas, the Dow was up another 122 points to another new all-time record high. In fact, the Dow has had an astonishing 50 record high closes this year. This reminds me of the kind of euphoria that we witnessed during the peak of the housing bubble. At the time, housing prices just kept going higher and higher and everyone rushed to buy before they were “priced out of the market”. But we all know how that ended, and this stock market bubble is headed for a similar ending. [Read more...]
Apparently the Fed cannot have its cake (taper) and eat it too (maintain its iron-fisted control over interest rates) as the 10 year treasury bond has just hit 3%- a 52 week high and up 20% from its October lows under 2.5%.
Is the Fed beginning to lose control of the bond market (along with the correlated $600 Trillion IRswaps derivatives market)? [Read more...]
While everyone focuses on the breakneck money creation by the Fed and the BOJ, what happened in the past month is that China quietly created some 20% more money. Perhaps most impotantly, between these three entities, nearly $400 billion in liquidity was created de novo in one month! Because when the entire world is a credit-fueled ponzi scheme, these are the kind of numbers that matter. [Read more...]
The Fed showed through its FOMC statement Wednesday it has little control over events, something that should dawn on markets in the coming days. The fed attempts to offset the deflationary implications of tapering by increasing its commitment to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and for longer. We are left wondering how long it will be before this contradiction is generally understood.
It is not just precious metals that are mispriced. Government bond yields, particularly for the weaker eurozone states do not reflect credit risk. Equity markets are priced on the back of ZIRP. Fixed assets, particularly housing and motor vehicles are being financed on the back of this unreality. The important point is not tapering, but that ZIRP continues indefinitely.
The unelected central planners at the Federal Reserve have decided that the time has come to slightly taper the amount of quantitative easing that it has been doing. On Wednesday, the Fed announced that monthly purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds will be reduced from $45 billion to $40 billion, and monthly purchases of mortgage-backed securities will be reduced from $35 billion to $30 billion. When this news came out, it sent shock-waves through financial markets all over the planet. But the truth is that not that much has really changed. The Federal Reserve will still be recklessly creating gigantic mountains of new money out of thin air and massively intervening in the financial marketplace. It will just be slightly less than before. However, this very well could represent a very important psychological turning point for investors. It is a signal that “the party is starting to end” and that the great bull market of the past four years is drawing to a close. So what is all of this going to mean for average Americans? The following are 8 ways that “the taper” is going to affect you and your family… [Read more...]