A few analysts are once again beating the drums for much lower gold and silver prices – supposedly just around the corner.  They mistake the testing of a recent breakout for a turnaround in the main trend.  In the process they are sowing confusion.
Here are some charts that show the main trend, along with reasons why the price of gold and silver is on track for a sharp rise, thanks to bullish fundamentals.

chart fiveFor a number of years the market presence of commercial traders has dictated the direction in the price of gold and silverWith deep pockets and by trading contracts in the futures market without having to back up their contracts with metal, commercial traders acting in concert, can raise the price after a pullback, and cap a rally when their computer trading programs signal that price is ripe for a quick drop.
While no group of traders can change a long-term trend, they can control the short-term trend.  We saw a clear example of this in June 2013, when out of nowhere and starting early in the morning, (before US markets opened), someone or a group of people, dumped 12,000 gold contracts (totalling about 1.5 billion dollars of gold), on a thinly traded market in the space of hours. At the same time a large number of silver contracts were dumped as well.  It was obvious that no one owned this much physical metal – it was simply a case of sellers of contracts smothering physical demand with ‘paper gold and silver’.  No trading system can predict the type of market action we witnessed in June 2013.    Nevertheless, by studying the COT reports, we can synchronize our trading with the commercial traders, and reduce our risk of being blindsided.

back up the truckAccording to a famous trader of the past, W. D. Gann: “Time is more important (in markets), than price; when time is up, price will reverse.”

It has now been 29 months since gold last reached a new high in its current bull market cycle. The downtrend lasted 22 months (top to bottom), having bottomed on June 28th 2013 at $1180.  Confirmation of the bottom came on Dec 31 when gold briefly touched $1182, and left behind a double bottom.
There have been two other corrections that lasted 6 months or more, from top to bottom: In 2006 gold declined for 6 months, and in 2008 the pullback took 8 months to bottom.
Thus a 22 month down-cycle qualifies under the Gann definition as ‘time is up’.

The financial MSM would have you believe that the 10+ year secular gold bull has ended and that gold is heading down for the next 20 years.
Obviously the shills have no clue what the end of a massive secular bull market looks like.
Here is how you will know if the gold bull market has ended: