Where are consumer prices headed and how this might affect precious metals?
This looks like the beginning of a severe deflationary cycle.
It is going to get worse before it gets better.
The central banks will try to correct this deflationary spiral with further reduce interest rate reductions, massive new doses of QE, moving even deeper into negative territory, a strategy that has proven to be a complete failure.
This does not bode well for any asset class.
Excess cash will not be loaned out, thus cramming more capital into the bank balance sheets, doing nothing for the global economies except stockpiling fuel for a burst of hyperinflation.
The dollar is always losing value. To measure the decline, people turn to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or various alternative measures such as Shadow Stats or Billion Prices Project.
They measure a basket of goods, and we can see how it changes every year.
However, companies are constantly cutting costs.
If we see nominal—i.e. dollar—prices rising, it’s despite this relentless increase in efficiency.
CPI only measures the tip of the iceberg. The result is the greatest sleight of hand ever.
The stunning graphic below illustrates the disparity:
I guess if you don’t eat anything with ground beef in it, you might think there’s no inflation:
At what stage will we see massive rise in CPI – even in real terms versus whether instead we will experience a currency collapse caused by widespread derivatives?
To the Austrians inflation is an increase in the quantity of money and credit. Inflation is not defined as rising prices; this is the long-run result of inflation in the quantity of money and bank credit.
Common jargon confuses the effect for the cause.
It seems our modern Central bankers believe something quite different entirely…
Thanks to the Federal Reserve, the middle class is slowly being suffocated by rising food prices.
Perhaps you have also noticed that food prices have gotten pretty crazy lately. In particular, meat prices have become absolutely obscene. For example, the average price of ground beef has risen to a new record high of over $4.09 a pound. Over the past twelve months, that works out to a whopping 17 percent increase…
Putin kicked out the Rothschild bankers from his country. Putin interrupted the USGovt heroin trade supply routes out of Afghanistan. Like Abraham Lincoln 150 years ago, the elite banker chambers wish to remove Putin and to suppress Russia, but the sprawling nation has joined at the hip with China. Thus Russia cannot be isolated any more than a bear can be bear hugged. The nation spans 12 time zones and is a top supplier of numerous important commodities. The Russia & China bond is growing and will result in a marriage, the consummation being a baby called the Gold Trade Standard.
The King Dollar is being displaced, kicked off its throne. Its squire the Petro-Dollar is undergoing demise. The Ukraine War is the USDollar Waterloo event.
The Saudi rejection of the USD in exclusive oil payments will be the crash heard around the world.
The marriage between the Saudis and Chinese is a process well along, with each month featuring yet another high level conference. The Saudis will make the announcement in the coming weeks or months, as a genuflection before the Chinese, with a hat tip to the Russians. Soon the crude oil price will be set by the Russia-China tag team, priced in Yuan. When the Gold Trade Standard is entrenched, the diversification away from USTreasurys in the global banking system will become a torrent. Bank system practices will follow trade payment practices. When installed, it will cause prosperity in the East and havoc in the West.
The Crash Heard Round the World is coming. The USDollar will be rejected, and replaced by the Gold Trade Standard.
In the article below, we analyze the surprisingly likely drivers that may keep the US dollar strengthening over the next few years, especially if another economic/financial crisis arrives.
While there are many reasons to fear for the longer term viability of the US dollar given America’s current misguided monetary policy and exponentially increasing debt & liabilities, the next few years could well see the greenback appreciate further by 50-100% relative to the world’s other major fiat currencies.
The QE program created substantial hedge fund interest in gold-related ETFs. Unfortunately, QE never created the inflation the funds had anticipated.
That’s because commercial banks held the QE money they received, “tight to the chest”, rather than loaning it to businesses and consumers.
In a nutshell, by enlarging the money supply while GDP was falling, the Fed created deflation.
So, if the Fed were to shrink the money supply now, or at least reduce its rate of growth, while GDP rises, and banks start making loans with their “QE booty” at the same time…. is that inflationary?
The answer is yes.
Who in good conscience wants to go their entire working lives supporting a government that wastes tax dollars on bombs, drones, spying on citizens, and bankrupting unborn generations?
It’s no wonder why the number of Americans renouncing their citizenship is increasing exponentially… and will likely continue to do so.
Renouncing US citizenship was free of charge until a couple of years ago. Then, overnight, the State Department imposed a $450 fee.
Yesterday they increased it once again– to $2,350.
That’s a 422% increase.
European Central Bank Head, Mario Draghi recently signaled Eurozone QE is Dead Ahead.
And the World has yet to deal with the Consequences of past and ongoing Fed, Japanese, and Chinese Monetary Policies. The coming Consequences of Central Bank QE and other Policies are reflected in the following Major Investors’ Actions and Analysts recommendations.
On this MUST WATCH interview of Sprott’s Ask the Expert, The Dollar Vigilante’s Jeff Berwick discusses Japan’s plans to double the Yen’s money supply in the next two years- a plan Berwick describes as “textbook hyperinflation“, and how the Fed will OUTPRINT the Japanese, meaning nothing but inflation and hyperinflation is on the horizon for the US.
With half of the US population dependent on the US gov’t, Berwick states the coming collapse of the dollar will be unlike anything the world has ever seen as the US gov’t hyperinflates the dollar to unimaginable levels.
Full interview is below:
Events, food purchased away from home and live entertainment are increasingly unaffordable to the bottom 90%.
It’s starting to feel like a $5 bill is the new $1 bill: everything that could be purchased with one or two dollars not that long ago is now $5 or even $10.
Gold drifted lower this week, with the price undermined by lack of interest on low volume and a slightly more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.
The chart below, of gold and open interest on Comex, shows how the price has declined while open interest has hardly budged from its historically low level.
The 30 statistics that you are about to read prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the middle class in America is being systematically destroyed. Once upon a time, the United States had the largest and most prosperous middle class in the history of the world, but now that is changing at a staggering pace.
Yes, the stock market has soared to unprecedented heights this year and there are a few isolated areas of the country that are doing rather well for the moment.
But overall, the long-term trends that are eviscerating the middle class just continue to accelerate.
In this economy, you don’t even have to lose your job to fall out of the middle class.
The following are 30 stats demonstrating the destruction of the US Middle Class:
All commodities and near-commodities are priced internationally in dollars, and the dollar is used for over 80% of cross-border trade settlements. Consequently the dollar is the base currency for all countries’ foreign reserves, giving it its reserve status.
However, there are now challenges to the dollar’s hegemony, with Russia, China as well as the other members, dialog-partners and associates of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), taking deliberate steps towards doing away with the dollar entirely for pan-Asian trade.
Recent developments setting up a rival to the IMF by the BRICS nations is part of this challenge.
If you follow the geopolitics, you might reasonably conclude that the dollar’s dominance has peaked and is now declining.
The SCO appears to believe there can be a transition away from the dollar, an idea that could turn out to be dangerously wrong at a time of great but generally unrecognised currency fragility.
At the heart of the issue there is a worrying lack of distinction between the dollar’s reserve function and its function as the monetary standard from when it replaced gold in 1971.
To fully appreciate the importance of the dollar as the standard for all other currencies, we must review the monetary history behind how and why the dollar replaced gold, and the implications for today.
The precious metals are lynch pins. They are nagging and persistent counter-parties to money printing gone wild.
The US currently has a Debt to GDP well north of 100%. That’s always a part of each hyperinflation.
Real (GAAP-derived) accounting puts ($6 Trillion) deficits at least five times tax revenue in the U.S.
Most modern hyperinflations started with only 2x deficit revenue.
Jobs, energy use, and real inflation are major (misery) indicators that we are in massive decline.
The only variable left to ignite is money velocity.
When prices begin to fly, the point of no return will be long since passed.
Global annual silver production is approximately 820,000,000 ounces or a bit more than 25,000 metric tons. What does that mean in terms that we can more easily understand?
If the global annual mine production of silver were cast into one large silver pyramid, it would be approximately – wait for it – only 65 feet high on a base of only 65 feet square. Rather tiny! For future reference, this is one “silver pyramid.”
The Federal Reserve was conjuring up enough dollars for QE to buy the equivalent of one silver pyramid every 6 days in the Bernanke era.
In that context silver seems inexpensive and dollars seem overvalued.
The US military spends the equivalent of one silver pyramid about every 8 days and the official US national debt increases by one silver pyramid every 7 days. Borrowing and “printing” this many dollars cannot continue forever. Silver and gold will remain valuable long after the dollar has been inflated to near worthlessness.
Dr Ron Paul, the popular Presidential candidate and America and the world’s most popular libertarian voice, told CNBC yesterday that he “still believes in gold” and that “gold could go to infinity.”
Paul informed the MSM host why the long term case for gold remains intact (while Jackie DeAngelis stated gold’s 8% performance year to date is disappointing):
“Timing is the only thing. I remember watching gold when it was 35 dollars an ounce and we thought if it ever hit a hundred dollars, the world would come to an end. And then a thousand dollars, so; no, it’s good as long as we continues to do this [print money] , you know, it could go to infinity because when people just leave the dollar, who knows what.”
Ding, Ding, Ding!
The bell tolls, not for the 1%, but for the remaining 99% in Europe, the UK, Japan, and the US.
What Danger Zone? The powers-that-be must find a way to keep the masses under control, raise taxes, enrich themselves and monetize the debt.
The result will be currency devaluations, blood, inflation, distractions (such as downed airliners and new wars), banker bonuses, continued payoffs to politicians, and so much more.
The official policy of the Central Bank (Federal Reserve)/government is: inflation is necessary for “growth,” i.e. economic expansion. The unstated reason for this official support of inflation is that it’s easier for borrowers to service their debts as their income inflates.
Just as the Federal Reserve cannot directly force you to stick the needle of monetary heroin (debt) into your arm, it also can’t force employers to pay employees more.