gold

The pattern of trading in precious metals changed for the better this past week.
August is a notoriously poor trading month, with traders in the northern hemisphere on holiday, or at least not thinking about markets.
September is wake-up time, and statistically the best month for gold.
Will this be the pattern this year?

police state
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In this special Holiday Weekend Edition of Metals & Markets, The Doc & Eric Dubin discuss: 

  • Chinese silver inventories decimated in Shanghai, while US & Royal Canadian Mint sales remain on pace for all-time sales records
  • The Doc puts Ebola death totals in perspective- Are the powers that be manufacturing a crisis to usher in martial law & restrict American travel, or are we facing a bonafide Ebola contagion? 
  • Eric breaks down the latest on the Ukrainian/Russian crisis and the drums leading to a massive conflict with the West
  • With gold & silver refusing to break down on the thinly traded last week of summer, we look ahead to gold & silver trading when the traders and bullion banks return to their desks Tuesday- is the long await rally dead ahead? 

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc & Eric Dubin is below: 

The Secret Gold Cycle

Get Ready for a Fall 2014 World Commodity Bull Market Breakout! 

Cycle analysis indicates the third and final 7-year tidal wave of the 21 year Grand Tsunami Gold Bull Market cycle began this past July 2014;  Gold has been consolidating in the 7th year of sabbatical rest within a Symmetric Triangle and one final push lower is still possible before a breakout arrives this fall 2014 that lead to World Commodity Bull Market Breakouts!
There remains a very probable possibility of a commodity inflationary price spike and should this inflationary spike occur, Gold would easily achieve $2000 by year end.
If no inflationary spike arrives in 2014 (as cycle analysis favors it will occur) expect Gold to still close the year closer to $2000 than $1300.
The 7-year Gold cycle dictates a THIRD Gold Bull Market breakout comes this fall 2014 and runs for the next 7-years into the year 2020-2021!  This THIRD and final Bull Market cycle will be nothing like the prior two 7-year cycles.  Do not expect either of the 2 prior 7-year cycle tops to match the THIRD.  In the end, the THIRD cycle will once again add up to 7-years and all 3 cycles will add up to one grand 21-year tsunami as Gold hits $10,000+!

gold

Given the stunning Indian and geopolitical price drivers now in play in Iraq, Syria, and the Ukraine, I think gold could charge beyond $1325, and on towards the $1347 and $1390 area highs.
Silver, which is perhaps better referred to as “gold on steroids”, looks even better. 

launch rocket vertical

Silver and gold prices continue to deteriorate as the speculators continue to buy up shorts and the commercials were able to wrest all higher priced longs from them in short covering, depressive episodes which, repeated in nature, have convinced the speculators prices are going much further South, and soon.
The important thing for the powers that be to do now is to reinforce the negative thinking on the part of speculators and anyone with interest in physical metal as they want it all for their one world currency backing, and they want it at low prices.
When prices do go below $17 we are going to begin to see foreign governments coughing up physical into the market as they will embrace all things paper and the promise of far greater returns on investment and protection from inflation for their people while watching the DOW eclipse 18,000, then 19,000 then…20,000.
If you believe Martin Armstrong, we will see DOW in the high 20,000s maybe even break 30,000.
All will seem well in the world of paper until merely days before the planned economic collapse of the world’s derivatives and bonds, and lastly all currencies.

China gold

There will be a defining geopolitical event next month when India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia become full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). This will increase the population of SCO members to an estimated 3.05 billion. We should care about this because it is the intention of the SCO to do away with the US dollar for trade settlement.

down gold

This week gold joined silver in breaking down, setting a new cycle low, and selling off relatively hard.  Miners followed.
Gold joined silver in the general PM move lower this week, breaking down below all three of its moving averages on high volume. 
Trader Dan last week opined that gold was likely only holding up because of international concerns, and would probably move down to test 1280 if things calmed down.  It looks like his assessment was accurate.
Thursday’s break below 1280 confirmed a pattern of lower highs in gold.  That’s bearish.

gold bull
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Jay Taylor joins Eric Dubin & The Doc this week for a power-packed show discussing: 

  • Jay compares where the current gold & silver bull market is at, and advised investors that: In 1980 we had a massive stampede- a mania in gold.  We haven’t seen anything like that yet!
  • Endless happy days, a deflationary Greatest Depression, or a hyperinflationary collapse- whats coming for the US in the next 3 years? 
  • With gold crushed yet again on the Fed minutes’ release, Jay explains why the Fed’s con artistry is to keep people disinterested in gold with routine horrendous smackdowns 
  • Why Taylor believes the next leg up will be bigger than the 1970′s bull market, and will be the biggest percentage move in gold EVER!
  • Jay digs into Austrian economics discussing exactly how we’ve left the gold standard for a PhD standard, and explains why fiat money allows those who control the system to steal from those who create the wealth

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc, Eric Dubin, & Jay Taylor is below: 

drift

Gold drifted lower this week, with the price undermined by lack of interest on low volume and a slightly more hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.
The chart below, of gold and open interest on Comex, shows how the price has declined while open interest has hardly budged from its historically low level.

flash smashSilver’s overall price action today was that of a failed rally; at one point silver was up +0.20 but failed to hold its gains, which I consider generally bearish.
Silver’s downtrend remains intact, and gold is now starting to give way as well, having dropped 4 days in a row.

JP MorganBoth houses of manipulation viciously attacked both gold and silver on Friday.
Guess why price went down after the COT Week?  It’s called “A Time To Kill” speculator’s positions right before price is allowed to go up…
This is too simple, it is an orchestrated massacre and played out with the greatest of mathematical minds who have programmed their trading and HFT-ing to loot speculators at their every turn because speculators,(at least the paper playing speculators) are like sheep led to the slaughter since they cannot coordinate between themselves to take positions and stick with them that would stop this madness.
The Commercial’s goal is to rape, pillage, and sack as much speculator wealth as they can prior to the planned worldwide economic crash of 2015 that destroys all the world’s currencies.

There are many fundamental factors which contribute to the price valuation given to gold at any time.
At the same time gold is valued by reference to it’s comparative efficacy to other assets as: a non national (foreign) currency, a zero coupon AAA (and better) bond type asset, an inflation hedge, a hedge against systemic risk as per eg collapse or loss during war or catastrophe.
So I got to thinking that it might be interesting to look at repeating alleged cycles in the frequency and size of wars, and interpret those cycles by looking at the behaviour of the gold market during those historic times.
So hopefully for every war cycle there would hopefully be a similar lead up period, and some similarity during it’s crest and decline of current waves when compared with earlier waves of that particular war cycle.
The (alleged) war cycles I chose to work with are the following:

gold-coin-sales-halted-chi-20140807-001At about 2PM today, the next FOMC minutes get released.
The bottom line: With the CRB index approaching solid support, any gold-negative news is not likely to move the price of gold lower than $1275.

The upside numbers of importance are $1325, $1347, and $1392.   This is a different market than it was, when QE was the main theme of global gold price discovery.
While it will likely take longer than most investors expect for gold to rise significantly, it will still rise, and gold and silver equities are poised to do extremely well.