Last Friday gold hit $1362 for a few minutes in the wee-hours of trading. In what is perhaps adjusting for inflation, even though he is a “Deflationist”, Harry Dent has a new gold forecast and 13 reasons to back it up…
What will happen if China decides to stop their importations of gold?
Paper prices may very well crash …while price for real gold within China goes to the moon.
As Jim Sinclair put it: “You could see COMEX gold at $10 offered and no bid, with Chinese cash markets $5,000 bid and no offer…”
Gold has a “clear presence” to play in a world dominated with ‘global economic uncertainty”
My analysis shows that gold will be implemented to protect ‘global purchasing power’ and minimize losses during our upcoming periods of ‘market shock’…
A storm approaches like no other financial storm ever seen on the face of the earth.
A derivatives contagion capable of wiping out the entire financial system in an hour, is coming.
Ladies and gentlemen, it is perfectly clear that gold prices are headed south – and in a big way.
For those of you who trust pictures, I have included a graph of gold prices since 1975.
As you can see – it is perfectly clear – repeat – PERFECTLY CLEAR – gold prices have NOWHERE to go but down, down, down.
Gold is holding up reasonably well, considering that Indian buyers are so focused on the election.
Generally speaking, this is the weak season for gold. Also, the April 12 – 15 period is when the gold market crashed in 2013. As we saw Tuesday, Nervous participants tend to be sellers around the anniversary of such events.
Since the start of this year, gold has performed extremely well. The daily chart shows the shiny metal moving steadily higher, in a bullish channel.
The current minor trend sell-off in gold is technically healthy.
Also, this price correction should not come as a surprise to any fundamentally-oriented investor; the Crimean crisis seems to be factored into the price now, and there is a key FOMC meeting Wednesday.
Gold will drop hard in 2014. Why? Simple! The national debt will go down because Charles Ponzi believes ObamaCare is a good plan and that congress will cut the budget and actually produce a surplus, a weak job market is limiting gold purchases by the people on food stamps, an economist predicted that gold will drop to $496 in 2014, we expect peace in the mid-east, the Chinese will reduce their purchases of gold in 2014, and a new supply of gold has been discovered in the Sasquatch zone of California. I figure it is “an open and shut case.” Gold prices are going through the floor!
David Morgan’s mining analyst for the Morgan Report discusses China’s massive import of 130 tons in October alone and unprecedented global demand for both gold and silver, while the cartel prepares to send paper metals prices to a re-test of the June lows of $1178 and $18.
Are new lows and the best stacking opportunity since 2008 imminent? The Morgan Report believes silver will hold, but gold is heading back to $1,000 in December!
“At least two big banks, I would say Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, maybe a big hedge fund…are trying to push gold down to that support zone at around $1000. I think they’re already short, and right now they’re letting the reversing dollar do the work for them.
I think gold tests the June low by the middle of next week.
When gold bottoms, it will bottom in a v-shape—& it’ll come roaring back out…because those three funds that have been trying to drive this down…will flip and go long. I think any smart hedge fund manager is looking for this $1000 level, and they’re just like me—they’re sitting in cash and waiting and licking their lips. If a washout comes, they’re going to put the money to work…so I think the buying pressure…is going to be huge.
The bottom will be an event—very short and we will very quickly rally back up to test $1520…and then I think by next summer we’ll already be testing $1800-$1900.”
As today’s Chart of the Day (courtesy Bloomberg) demonstrates, on a year-over-year percentage change basis, gold bullion is currently exhibiting the strongest buy signal of the entire bull market, far surpassing the previous buy signals placed in 2005, 2007, and late 2008-early 2009.
Must See year-over-year percent change of gold bullion chart for the duration of the bull market is below:
The financial media would have you believe that everyone and their dog has given up on the precious metals market. But as Peter Schiff humorously remarked the last time we were down at these levels: The PM bull market is dead! Long live the PM bull market!
On this week’s show, we discuss the recent action in the metals & markets, including:
Testing of $22/silver and $1320/gold next week, with the potential for a capitulation spike low as soon as Sunday’s Globex session- silver could see a spike low to $18-$20, & gold a $1200 handle
Examination of fundamentals: Nothing has significantly changed
Physical versus paper demand trends in both the West and Asian markets
George Soros and another documented case of financial media spin
Bloomberg’s Market Makers interviewed Ron Paul Tuesday, with Paul discussing last week’s epic gold smash. With the Bloomberg duo attempting to goad Paul into admitting gold is not a safe asset due to the recent price volatility, the former Texas Congressman stated that he’s not concerned about the recent gold slump, he’s worried about the 100 year slump in the US dollar! Paul points out that PHYSICAL gold demand has gone through the roof, and states for true believers the recent gold dip is an excellent buying opportunity, and that he personally bought gold last week.
Paul also discusses Bitcoin (not a fan…I’m not interested in something I can’t put in my pocket), Central bankers, the Treasury Bubble and its coming US collapse, and the future of the Republican party.
Paul’s full MUST WATCH interview is below:
Submitted by Adam Hamilton, Zeal
Holy cow, not even the most vociferous gold bears saw that one coming! Gold just suffered what can only be described as a panic. This metal plummeted so fast that its price surrendered a staggering 1/7th of its value in just two trading days! This blistering decline was so extreme it even dragged the general stock markets down with it. Shell-shocked gold investors are nervously wondering what to make of it.
Gold’s recent plunge was crash-like as well, but couldn’t have been a crash. While panics cascade from lows after long declines, crashes erupt from record highs after long rallies. Crashes, which are also ultra-rare, are only seen immediately after major multi-year bull runs where euphoria just drove a parabolic terminal ascent. That certainly doesn’t describe gold’s weak downward price action over the past 6 months or so.
Is the United States about to experience another major economic downturn? Unfortunately, the pattern that is emerging right now is exactly the kind of pattern that you would expect to see just before a major stock market crash and a deep recession.
History tells us that when the price of gold crashes, a recession almost always follows. History also tells us that when the price of oil crashes, a recession almost always follows. When both of those things happen, a significant economic downturn is virtually guaranteed.
The $20 billion gold futures sale and concentrated selling of gold futures on the COMEX on Friday and Monday is far more likely to be “nefarious” than the gold fixings in London. The CFTC’s track record to date has not been great and regulatory capture remains a real risk with the CFTC seeming to be reluctant to hold Wall Street banks who may be involved in price manipulation in the futures market to account. After the Libor revelations, it is surprising that there is not more scrutiny and hard questions asked of banks and regulators in this regard. Separately, large institutional fund manager Blackrock said that there was “no visible central bank activity” as the gold price plunged. They said that gold’s fundamentals remain strong and that the fall in price was driven by an outflow of “hot money” and that gold prices are now near the marginal cost of new supply which should provide strong support at these levels and lead to higher prices again.
Somebody out there is sure getting prepared for something really big. We have just witnessed a takedown of gold and silver unlike anything that we have witnessed in decades. On Monday, the price of gold had fallen by more than 10 percent at one point. It shocked investors all over the globe, and overall what we have just seen was the largest two day decline in the price of gold in 30 years. The price of silver dropped even more rapidly on Monday. It was down more than 14 percent at one point. There was an atmosphere of “panic selling” as investors and financial institutions raced to liquidate their holdings of silver and gold. But was this exactly what someone out there wanted?
Here we go again! With the cartel’s gold smash stalled at $1386, breaking across the wires is a Bloomberg report that Cyprus Finance Minister Haris Georgiades has just stated that Cyprus will liquidate its gold reserves within the next few months.
Now we know why the Cyprus gold sale story was refuted 48 hours after the initial report: so the MSM could re-cycle the news and use the threat of the same tiny 10 ton gold sale as an excuse for another future paper raid.
Still no mention from Bloomberg or any other MSM source about last weekend’s collapse of Rio Tinto’s Kennecott mine in Utah, which wiped out 5 million ounces in annual silver supply, and 500,000 ounces of annual gold supply.
The dollar gold price hovered just below $1610 an ounce Thursday morning, while stocks and commodities fell along with Euro as disappointing economic data was added to news that Cyprus’s banks will remain closed until next Tuesday.
“We forecast the gold price to have dropped to below $1400 by year-end and for it to continue to trend lower next year,” says a note from SocieteGenerale.
SocGen has cut its average gold price forecast for this year to $1500 an ounce, with the per ounce averages for 2014 and 2015 cut to $1400 and $1300 respectively.
Our friend TF from TFMetalsReport has published a guest post arguing that the current backwardation in gold and silver in a falling market is signalling that bullion prices are about to experience a 2008 style collapse.
The Doc has long believed that the gold and silver futures markets would experience a massive take-down immediately preceding the coming collapse and the metals’ largest gains. Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair recently stated the same, predicting an imminent wash out that would test the resolve of even the staunchest PM bulls, prior to gold heading to $3,500/oz.
Is gold and silver backwardation in a falling market signalling a washout gold and silver collapse is imminent?
As ever, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly why gold and all precious metals fell in price. Interestingly, oil fell by even more – NYMEX crude was down by 1% and was down by more than 1.7% at one stage. The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, said Wednesday’s plunge in gold was not the consequence of a “fat finger” or a human error. The trading wasn’t even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex, said CME. One thing that we can say for certain was that there was massive, concentrated selling as the New York stock markets opened with some 35,000 lots sold which is equivalent to 3.5 million ounces and saw the price fall from $1,735/oz to $1,711/oz between 0825 and 0830 EST. One sell order alone was believed to be 24 tonnes or 770,000 troy ounces. Incredibly there was 35% daily volume in just 60 seconds. The selling, like all peculiar, counter intuitive, sharp sell offs in recent months, was COMEX driven with COMEX contracts slammed leading to further stop loss selling. The selling may have been by speculative players on the COMEX. It may have been algo or computer trading driven or tech selling – although this is less likely. Informed commentators questioned the nature of the selling as a large institutional COMEX trading entity would normally gradually sell a position of this size in order to maximize profit.
While it was likely a data glitch rather than a trading fat finger flash smash, tonight’s gold futures appeared to have been dropped vertically down the mine-shaft dropping $30 in a single tick, and stuffed under $1700 to $1699.
Whether flash smash or data glitch, the move has been subsequently wiped from the charts.