April 12, 2013 was the beginning of a two day “super-crash” in the gold market.
In my professional opinion, the gold bull market ended on that day.
The world changed on April 12, 2013, because the Western gold bull market ended, and the Asian gold bull era began. [Read more...]
The Western Gold Bull Market is Dead. Long Live the Asian Gold Bull Era!
The Revival: Weekend Chart Porn
Just like the previous times in 2006 and 2008, this precious metals market is now marking time before the next up-leg begins, and it will be similar in scale to the up-legs that followed the 2006 and 2008 corrections.
The one huge difference is that in 2006 and 2008, China was not actively and aggressively accumulating physical gold.
A little more patience is all that is required – i.e. “sit tight and be right.”
Fridays nonsense aside in the markets, we present a 13yr daily chart of gold that shouldn’t need any explanation:
Stewart Thomson: Gold Awakening, Dollar-Bugs Should Take Serious Shelter!
Submitted by Stewart Thomson:
Time in the congestion pattern “hourglass” is running out quickly, and a trending move, either up or down, will begin very soon.
From a technical standpoint, congestion patterns have roughly a 2/3 chance of consolidating the primary trend (up in this case), and a 1/3 chance of reversing it. This is clearly good news for gold investors.
Gold has rested, and looks to me now, like it’s a cat that is stretching lazily, after a wonderful nap. If I was a “dollar-bug mouse”, I would consider looking for some serious shelter, very soon.
[Read more...]
Stewart Thomson: Central Banks Will Push Gold Higher, Retail Investors Will be Lining up in Bread Lines
Submitted by Stewart Thomson:
My long-held view is that at the end of this gold bull market, American retail investors will not be lining up in the street to buy, like they did in the 1970s.
Instead, they will more likely be lining up in real breadlines, like they did in the 1930s. Central bank buying will push the gold price higher and higher, and their balance sheets will probably look vastly worse than they already do.
Fundamentals make charts. The fundamentals of the Fed’s balance sheet are likely to make gold and gold stock charts look very good, but only for investors who buy at lower price levels, when it is uncomfortable to buy.
[Read more...]
As Investors Flee Gold ETFs, Central Banks Jump in as Bigger Gold Buyers
Guest Post
While mainstream financial and a growing number of economic forecasters focus on investors fleeing the gold bullion market, I am following in the footsteps of central banks around the world.
As investors sold ETFs in February, central banks around the world added to their gold bullion reserves. [Read more...]
Massive Comex Gold Short Position: A Lesson from History?
Gold has lost its shine in early 2013 as speculators build up massive short positions on the futures market.
Indeed, gold short positions on the New York Comex are at levels not seen before this century. The last time speculators were betting against gold this heavily was back when the New York Times was hailing the genius of Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve, while Gordon Brown was preparing to sell half of Britain’s gold reserve at what proved to be the bottom of the market.
Speculative investors have certainly turned on gold. But this is not the first time gold has been written off. In this excellent video, Adrian Ash looks back to the 1970s, and a period when the gold price was cut in half, just as US citizens were allowed to own gold again for the first time in four decades. In fact, gold performed so badly that Time magazine compared gold bullion to a rusty tin can…before bouncing back spectacularly… [Read more...]
Gold Sentiment Twilight Zone
Submitted by Morris Hubbartt:
The base building process over the last 18 months has been frustrating. There is strong support under market, coming from commercial traders. This is the “platform” that should propel gold to higher prices. Commercial traders are now holding positions comparable to the 2006-2007 timeframe. Gold gained over 70% after that, and it could happen again!
When Fed officials make comments that the end of QE is coming, it’s probably a verbal sleight of hand. A rally in the T-bond is what the gold market desperately needs! As the price has softened, the public has fled the gold market. The old saying is, “If you can’t handle the heat, get out of the kitchen.” Well, the public clearly cannot handle the heat. Look at the extreme sentiment reading. It looks like something from the twilight zone! I’ve never seen the sentiment for gold stocks this bearish, which means potential upside reward has never been bigger!
Jim Sinclair: Gold to Place Significant Bottom Between 2/28 & 3/27, Launch to $3,500/oz!
Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair, who called the top of the last bull market in gold to the day, liquidating his entire personal gold position overnight the day gold topped, has come out and officially stated that gold will make a significant long term bottom in the next month.
Specifically, Sinclair states that gold will place a bottom between today, 2/28, and 3/27, and that Thereafter gold is released to the upside which will be a minimum of $3500.
Considering Sinclair predicted gold would trade at $1650 in 2011 (which it did) when gold was trading in the upper $200′s back in 2001, we would suggest paying attention to Sinclair’s latest major gold call.
You can bank on the fact that the Morgans and Goldmans sure are.
Sinclair’s call for a major bottom in gold is below:
Bloomberg Asks Why Would Anyone Want to Own Gold?
Bloomberg blonde: Why would anyone want to own gold? It’s a safe haven during times of crisis and things are getting better, and it doesn’t pay a dividend and George Soros is selling 100 million of his gold holdings.
Jim Steel: Well you don’t get much of a yield on most things. Negative real interest rates is supportive of gold bullion going forward and also there is still uncertainty in the currency markets and gold is an alternative form of currency.
Bloomberg blonde: We haven’t really seen a lift from the currency wars rhetoric?
Jim Steel: Still its within a broad range that the bull market is still intact. Don’t forget it was only a few years ago when Obama took office and gold was around $900/oz. [Read more...]
Adam Hamilton: Gold’s Young Upleg
Submitted by Adam Hamilton, Zeal:
Gold’s current slump began in late November and accelerated in December. Ever since late that month, it has been inexorably grinding sideways and trying traders’ patience. Gold has indeed been fairly weak in that isolated time-frame. But the big picture of what led into this recent consolidation reveals it is actually quite bullish. Considering gold’s technicals in longer-term context quickly dispels the current fears.
When a price drifts listlessly like gold’s has recently, traders’ bearishness grows with each passing day. Eventually they throw up their hands in disgust and capitulate, figuring the bullish case must have been wrong. The recent poor price action dominates their minds, that’s all they can think about. But zooming out to get more perspective frames gold’s slog quite differently, as a consolidation within a young upleg. [Read more...]
Gonzalo Lira: Why Isn’t Gold Higher?
Hint: Because it’s the Credit Default Swap of the Next Financial Crisis
Submitted by Gonzalo Lira
Credit default swaps were the insurance—the hedge—against exactly what happened in 2008: Bonds threatened to default, during the Global Financial Crisis. So the CDS’s insuring those bonds rose in value—until suddenly, they didn’t: CDS’s stopped rising in value just when the markets collectively realized that the counter-parties to those CDS contracts might not be able to pay up.
What if the price of gold is drifting not because the markets don’t trust the world’s reserve currencies to continue to devalue, but because the market doesn’t trust gold?
Since everyone with any sense realizes that this is the endgame of the current race to the bottom, gold ought to be rising dramatically, but that is not happening. Gold rose steady and strong from 2000 through September 2011—but since then it’s been drifting jaggedly.
So why would gold—which is an actual, physical commodity—be acting like credit default swaps did right before the 2008 crisis?
For the same reason: Gold buyers don’t trust the counter-parties selling gold. [Read more...]
Silver’s Up 675% Since 2001; Here’s Why It Will Go Higher
As I have written in these pages before, I expect silver prices to outperform gold prices in the years ahead. That opinion hasn’t changed.
As gold prices started their flight upwards back in 2002, silver prices followed a similar pattern. Below is a price chart of monthly silver prices since 2001—when gold was trading just below $300.00 an ounce. [Read more...]
Jim Sinclair: This is the Big One!
Legendary gold trader Jim Sinclair has sent another email alert to subscribers today, warning that the current reaction in gold is the big one, and the last play by the bullion banks to denude gold and silver investors of their positions. Sinclair states that fundamentally, we are approaching the period where gold and silver will achieve their greatest gains of the entire bull market in the shortest period of time, and that The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come.
Sinclair states that the big move is imminent in gold!: We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500.
Sinclair’s full alert below: [Read more...]
Are Gold & Silver in a Bull Market- Or is Government Devaluation Simply Going Exponential?
Gold and silver are NOT going up in value. An ounce or gold or an ounce of silver is still the same ounce. It is the imaginary “value” of the fiat you hold that is being debased and is relentlessly dropping. It is a subtle, but necessary change in “belief” one must always recognize, [and there are many who do, just not enough]. Instead of 250 or 900 units of fiat, it now takes 1650 units of fiat to purchase the SAME ounce of gold, and 30 units of fiat, instead of 5 or 20 units to purchase the same ounce of silver.
Make no mistake about it, it is the central bankers that are leading governments around by the nose, and by proxy, governments leading
people around by the nose, and that “nose” is inhaling “lines” of fiat. Unless cured, all addictions end badly, and the only “cure” central bankers have for ever-increasing fiat is, ever-increasing it more. [Read more...]
Dow Gold and Gold Silver Ratio Charts Remain Bullish
We continue to favour the Dow Gold Ratio chart as a good indicator as to when the gold bull market might end. It is likely to reach the levels seen in 1980, close to 1:1 or the Dow at 5,000 or 10,000 and gold at between $5,000/oz and $10,000/oz.
This will be an indication that the gold bull market will be in its final innings. Provided of course we do not return to some form of gold standard whereby gold bull markets and bear markets will again become confined to history.
We continue to be more bullish on silver in the long term and believe the gold silver ratio should fall back to the geological 15:1 level as was last seen in 1980. This means that silver continues to be more attractive from a return point of view.
[Read more...]
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