GLD(Editor note: the question is where will GLD find the physical gold to replace the inventory that was sucked East in 2013?)

The mighty GLD gold ETF’s bullion holdings have remained stable in 2014, an impressive feat.  Last year they suffered an epic outlying record plummet as the Fed’s stock-market levitation sucked capital out of alternative investments.  (and as the East sucked every ounce of AU out of the vaults)
This year’s resiliency in the face of the ongoing stock-market melt-up almost certainly means the bottom is in.  GLD’s holdings are set to surge as weaker stock markets entice traders back.

caption contestAccording to the official 2014 report, the BoE had 755 tonnes less gold in their vaults in February 2014 relative to February 2013.
However, when we look at UK’s net gold trade over this period (March 2013 – February 2014), we can see 1593 tonnes were exported.
GLD’s stock lost 451 tonnes over this period.
This leaves a gap of 392 tonnes (1593 minus 1201), which had to be supplied by additional LBMA or private vaults in London.

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GLDTFMetalsReport’s T. Ferguson joins the show this week to discuss: 

  • The Vaults Are NEARLY EMPTY- why claims of a physical gold shortage is not stacker hysteria, but rather the COLD HARD TRUTH!
  • PM Sentiment sucks by design: Cartel fears Western investment demand with vaults vastly depleted- vigorously capping any and all price rallies
  • Big picture outlook:  Summer stock market decline & tapering halt
  • Doc sees the first signs of renewed PHYSICAL SILVER SHORTAGE- 90% silver premiums leap as supply dries-up

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets With The Doc, Eric Dubin, & T. Ferguson is below!

Blythe Masters Jamie DimonAlthough the western media at large, and especially the mainstream in the United States, remarkably never reported the event, the United States Government defaulted on Germany’s request to have some portion of its gold shipped from the Fed custodial vaults back to Germany.
That’s right – the U.S. outright defaulted.

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launch rocket verticalLondon expert Alasdair Macleod returns to the SD Weekly Metals & Markets with his brilliant PM analysis, including:

  • Chinese 2013 gold demand 7,603 tons- More than DOUBLE Global Supply & mainstream estimates!
  • Macleod states that China’s total gold reserves (public & private) may be between 10 and 25,000 tons of gold!
  • Vaulting companies have never seen a 1 kilo (9999) gold bar- not one ounce is leaving China!
  • Gold being delivered from Western vaults has turned dirty- (barely .9 gold):  Bullion Banks Now Scraping the Bottom of the Vaults to Source Asian Gold Demand!
  • Swiss Refiners are working 24/7, with up to 20 tons a day being sourced to China via Switzerland alone!
  • We discuss plunging GOFO rates: Macleod explains that the London Market has been Effectively Cleaned Out of Gold Below $1300, & that No One is Willing to Arbitrage the Negative GOFO Because There is No Bullion Available! 
  • Alasdair provides his short & long term outlook for gold & silver, & states that Paper Currencies Face Ultimate Collapse, and that the Coming Loss of Confidence in the Dollar Could Propel Silver to $75!

A Special Extended Edition Metals & Markets With Alasdair Macleod is below:

Stock-market capital finally started flowing back into the flagship GLD gold ETF for the first time in 14 months in February! 
Though this buying was small, this is truly a momentous event.  Extreme gold-ETF outflows were the dominant culprit behind last year’s epic gold selloff.  Without that massive influx of additional supply weighing on the global markets, gold is going to surge on strong physical demand.

gold eagleGold is marginally lower in all currencies today but holding near its strongest level in four months. Concerns about the possibility of the Chinese property bubble bursting affecting economic growth in China and the world is supporting gold.  Nervousness over Ukraine, after new acting President Turchinov warned Ukraine is close to default, is also supportive of gold at these levels.
Indian and Indonesian buyers also continue to purchase gold: “We are seeing some buying, and there are purchases from India. Other clients are still buying some quantity, about 20 to 30 kilos each time,” a gold dealer in Singapore told Reuters.
The increase in gold ETF holdings could also reflect renewed interest from investors. SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold exchange traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.41% to 801.61 tonnes on Monday from 798.31 tonnes on Friday.
Gold has risen more than 11% this year in dollar terms, 10% in euro terms and 9.1% in pound terms due to renewed safe haven demand.

gold vaultMuch has been made recently about “metal flowing back into the GLD”. As if this is a sign that “investors are returning to the sector” and “the ETFs are working just as you’d expect”. Uhhhh….not so much. Let’s look at the actual numbers.
As you know, the gold price hit a Double Bottom on 12/31/13 at $1180. Since then, it has rallied over $140 or nearly 12%. But the GLD is now down YTD, falling from 798.22 mts to yesterday’s 795.61.  So, don’t buy this nonsense that “gold is returning to the GLD” and that “the ETFs are functioning just as they should”.

Physical gold is clearly in very short supply worldwide as demand is insatiable.
Continue to stack, while there’s still time. 
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Gold VaultHarvey Organ joins the SD Weekly Metals & Markets Wrap this week to warn of a possible February COMEX Gold Default:

  • Continued decline in “registered” gold inventory at the COMEX- 2o tons of gold “kilo bars” withdrawn from JPM vaults headed to Hong Kong!
  • 2014 will mark the year where physical forces deep “managed retreat” in the least
  • Geopolitical and Global Macro review:  From MyRA & pension fund confiscation to Ukraine & Emerging Markets
  • Fed Taper Review- Eric believes the Fed will overshoot tapering to $50 billion/month, while Harvey believes Wednesday’s taper will be the last
  • Harvey discusses why February may very well see strains to the point of the long anticipated COMEX default in gold!

The SD Weekly Metals & Markets with Harvey Organ is below:

The price of gold was remarkably smashed $35 in the space of 60 seconds at 10:14 a.m. NY time Monday morning12,000 contracts hit the market almost all at once.  To put this size in context, on Friday a little over 107,000 Feb contracts traded during the entire 23 hour Globex system session.  In other words, Monday at 10:14 a.m., a little over 11% of Friday’s total volume traded in the space of  1/1380 th of the entire Globex session for a given period.
The hit came from nowhere and halted a strong rally in the price of gold that began last night in Asia.
This is the unmistakable sign of desperationDesperation to keep a lid on the price of gold in an attempt to make the public believe that everything is ok in this country and with the U.S. dollar.  But we all know otherwise…

fiscal cliffGold’s worst year in memory was largely the result of extreme paper gold-ETF selling.  A flood of gold supply hammered gold prices as stock investors around the world aggressively dumped gold ETFs.  They were rotating out of gold to chase the Fed-driven stock-market levitations.  But as toppy stock markets inevitably reverse, so will capital flows.  Gold-ETF outflows are already waning, and will soon shift to accelerating inflows.

gold collapseSince the Lehman crisis in 2008 it turns out that gold and silver have been the number 1 and number 2 best performing investments.  I bet that surprises everyone who is reading this.  Despite this nasty two-year correction, if you invested every penny in gold and silver, you have outperformed every other possible asset class.  And get ready for the next move higher in gold and silver, because our system is in worse shape and further along its collapse than it was in 2008.  Goldman Sachs knows this and that’s why – despite their analyst report that says gold could still go lower here – Goldman Sachs – the firm – became one of the largest holders of GLD during the 2nd quarter of 2013.

Zeal081613AThe flagship GLD gold ETF has suffered a radically unprecedented mass exodus this year.  But just this week, money started flowing back into GLD for the first time in months.  This likely marks the dawn of the GLD exodus’s reversal, which is wildly bullish for gold.  Falling stock markets will play a critical role.

I had the chance to reconnect with a source in the bullion management business, whose operations deal on a direct basis with the shipping desks at the GLD. While remaining unnamed at this time, it was a powerful conversation, and he was quite liberal in sharing thought.
Speaking to what his group is hearing from the main GLD custodian, he noted that, “GLD is collapsing in [terms of] the number of share issuance, and [is] being redeemed…we are hearing from my end…that the GLD main custodian has been collapsing it and redeeming it, and that gold is just being shipped via their shipping desk directly to Asia.”
He further added that, “It is quite clearly a major establishment using their shipping desk to ship gold bullion, and potentially having it re-smelted down in Singapore, Hong Kong, etc.   It (the gold) is moving.”